Packers Have Obvious But Difficult Path to Winning NFC North

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers control their destiny in the NFC North, but winning the division for the first time since 2021 won’t be easy.

“It was huge to have a sweep against the Lions and put ourselves in position to potentially get that top spot in the NFC North back,” receiver Christian Watson said. “It was big time.”

The Chicago Bears (9-3) hold a half-game lead over the Packers (8-3-1). The Packers will play the Bears twice in the next three weeks: at Lambeau Field next Sunday and at Soldier Field two weeks later.

Here’s a look at the difficult road ahead.

Updated NFC North Standings

Here are the NFC North standings, with only the last-place Vikings needing to play on Sunday.

Chicago Bears: 9-3. The Bears were 8-3 heading into Friday’s game against Philadelphia. It had a negative scoring differential and hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record. That all changed when it beat the Eagles 24-15.

Green Bay Packers: 8-3-1. After back-to-back losses at Lambeau Field, the Packers have won three consecutive games. In the NFC, only the Rams (plus-21) and Seahawks (plus-11) are better than Green Bay in net touchdowns (plus-10).

Detroit Lions: 7-5. The Lions rebounded from their Week 1 loss to Green Bay by winning four in a row. Since then, they have alternated wins and losses every week. Based on that, they’ll win at Chicago in Week 18. They are on the wrong side of the playoff bubble.

Minnesota Vikings: 4-8. The Vikings are in 12th place in the NFC and five wins behind the 49ers in the race for the final playoff spot.

Remaining NFC North Schedules

Pending the outcomes of the primetime games, the Colts have the most difficult remaining schedule, with their five opponents having a combined .672 winning percentage.

The Packers have the second-toughest schedule in the NFL and the toughest in the NFC with a combined .627 winning percentage. Sticking with the NFC, Seattle has the third-toughest schedule in the league (.597), the Bears are fifth (.590), the Lions are sixth (.585) and the 49ers are seventh (.562).

Here’s a look at the closing schedules of the teams in contention to win the NFC North championship. Records are through Sunday afternoon.

The Green Bay Packers, including Micah Parsons (1) and Jordan Love (10) celebrate with some postgame turkey. | Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

Week 14

Packers: home vs Bears (9-3), 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 7.

Bears: at Packers (8-3-1), 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 7.

Lions: home vs. Cowboys (6-5-1), 7:20 p.m. on Thursday, Dec. 4.

Week 15

Packers: at Broncos (9-2), 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 14.

Bears: home vs. Browns (3-9), noon on Sunday, Dec. 14.

Lions: at Rams (9-3), 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 14.

Week 16

Packers: at Bears (9-3), 4 p.m. or 7:20 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 20.

Bears: home vs Packers (8-3-1), 4 p.m. or 7:20 p.m. on Saturday, Dec. 20.

Lions: home vs. Steelers (6-6), 3:25 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 21.

Week 17

Packers: home vs. Ravens (6-6), time TBA on Saturday, Dec. 27, or Sunday, Dec. 28.

Bears: at 49ers (9-4), 7:20 p.m. on Sunday, Dec. 28.

Lions: at Vikings (4-8), 3:30 p.m. on Christmas (Thursday, Dec. 25).

Week 18

Packers: at Vikings (4-8), time TBA on Saturday, Jan. 3, or Sunday, Jan. 4.

Bears: home vs. Lions (7-5), time TBA on Saturday, Jan. 3, or Sunday, Jan. 4.

Lions: at Bears (9-3), time TBA on Saturday, Jan. 3, or Sunday, Jan. 4.

Here’s the Challenge

On paper, the easiest way to win the NFC North is to sweep Chicago. That’ll be easier said than done based on how the Bears literally ran over the Eagles on Friday.

“We haven’t hit our pinnacle yet in this sense of a team and execution on offense,” Bears quarterback Caleb Williams said. “But we’re still winning these games, and so that’s really important. So, that’s why I'm extremely excited.”

The Packers could beat Chicago next week to take first place in the division, only to lose the lead the following week when they play at AFC West-leading Denver and the Bears are at home against Cleveland.

What Happens With Split?

If the Packers and Bears split their upcoming games, the Bears would retain their half-game lead in the division. That would mean the Packers would have to gain ground somewhere else on the schedule.

That won’t be easy. The Packers’ other games are at Denver, home against Baltimore and at Minnesota. The Bears’ other games are home against Cleveland, at San Francisco and home against Detroit. That’s one really hard road game for both teams (Green Bay at Denver and Chicago at San Francisco) and one challenging home game (Green Bay vs. Baltimore and Chicago vs. Detroit).

The Packers probably would have to pull for the Lions, who may or may not be in the playoff race in Week 18, to win at Chicago.

The Only Seeds That Matter

Ultimately, given how evenly matched the NFC’s top teams seem to be, perhaps only two seeds are going to matter once the playoffs start.

One is the No. 1 seed, which comes with the only first-round bye. The Rams lead the NFC with a 9-3 record and have only two games remaining against winning teams: home against Detroit in Week 15 and at Seattle in Week 16.

The other is the No. 7 seed. That was the Packers’ fate last season, with getting to the Super Bowl requiring winning at the No. 2 seed in the wild-card round and the No. 1 seed in the divisional round. San Francisco, which will be on its bye next week, is in the No. 7 spot, a half-game behind Green Bay.

The Last Word

Goes to Micah Parsons after the Packers celebrated Thanksgiving with their win at Detroit.

“It’s a huge one. This was the division champs last year. You know who they have on their team. You know what they bring. This is a team that fights to the end. It’s a battle. We’re all banged up.

“That was a 12-round boxing match, Ali. That’s what it feels like. This is a team we won’t write off. We’ll probably see them again. This was a big win for where we want to go, win the division, playoffs. That was a playoff game. We just have to stack these up.”

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