Packers Lock-O-Meter 4.0 Projects 53-Man Roster, Including Josh Jacobs

GREEN BAY, Wis. – This is it.

For the Green Bay Packers, Friday’s preseason game will be the last chance for players to show they’re worthy of a spot on the 53-man roster before Sunday’s final roster cuts.

The signing of tight end Jonnu Smith and the latest developments in the Josh Jacobs case have changed the outlook since we ran the Lock-O-Meter last week.

Here’s where things stand ahead of a career-changing preseason game against the Cardinals. (Note: 92 players are listed here. The Packers have 91 players on their roster, including tight end Thomas Yassmin getting the International Player Pathway exemption, and Smith hasn’t officially signed so no player has been released).

100 Percent Locks (40)

Quarterbacks: Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor.

Running backs: MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks.

Receivers: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams, Bo Melton, Skyy Moore.

Tight end: Tucker Kraft, Jonnu Smith.

Offensive line: LT Jordan Morgan, LG Aaron Banks, C Sean Rhyan, RG Jacob Monk, RT Zach Bako-Bewele, T/G Anthony Belton, C/G Jager Burton.

Edge: Lukas Van Ness, Barryn Sorrell, Dani Dennis Sutton, Brenton Cox.

Defensive tackles: Devonte Wyatt, Javon Hargrave, Chris McClellan, Warren Brinson.

Linebackers: Edgerrin Cooper, Zaire Franklin, Isaiah McDuffie, Ty’Ron Hopper, Nick Niemann.

Cornerbacks: Brandon Cisse, Benjamin St-Juste.

Safeties: Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, Javon Bullard, Kitan Oladapo.

Specialists: P Daniel Whelan, K Trey Smack.

What changed: The locks count increased from 36 to 40. While Thursday’s big news items knocked Josh Jacobs and Josh Whyle down a rung, with Whyle one of the losers in the acquisition of Jonnu Smith, Smith joined the locks group.

Other players moving into this tier were kicker Trey Smack, receivers Bo Melton and Skyy Moore, linebacker Nick Niemann and safety Kitan Oladapo.

Analysis: These will be the team’s starters and key players for the season.

Recently, special teams coordinator Cam Achord said he had 18 players working at gunner; Melton was the only player he mentioned by name. A few days later, passing-game coordinator Jason Vrable noted Melton’s work as a blocker. Moore hasn’t caught the ball consistently on offense but he’s the obvious choice as the returner.

Oladapo, whose spot on the roster has never been in doubt, had interceptions on Sunday, Monday and Wednesday.

Niemann’s roster spot has never been in doubt, either. He was on his way to incredible tackle production on special teams last year before a pectoral injury. He’s had a solid camp on defense, as well.

The wild card is the health of Savion Williams and Brinson, both of whom were injured at Denver and didn’t play this week. If those injuries linger into the regular season, one or both could wind up on injured reserve.

Here are 87 seconds of deep passes from today. pic.twitter.com/g72os9Af0q
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) August 24, 2026

90.0 Percent to 99.9 Percent Locks (4)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: Josh Jacobs.

Receivers: None.

Tight end: Josh Whyle.

Offensive line: None.

Edge: None.

Defensive tackles: Karl Brooks.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Keisean Nixon.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: None.

What changed: This group was cut in half from eight to four. Bo Melton, Skyy Moore, Nick Niemann and Trey Smack moved up one tier and into the locks, long snapper Matt Orzech went down one rung and Josh Jacobs fell to here.

Analysis: Let’s get right to the big one, and that’s the future of Jacobs.

There were some big notes from investigators, including saying there was video collaborating some of what the victim said. That’s big news to us, anyway. The Packers and the NFL, who have their own teams looking into the matter, almost certainly know the contents of the video, either through what they’ve been told by investigators or through their own eyes.

So, from that perspective, the only news from Thursday was that Jacobs was charged with two misdemeanors. From a court-of-public-opinion standpoint, with the revelation that the surveillance footage “corroborates the relevant portions of (the victim’s) statement that one would expect to have seen on video [including] the altercation (the victim) described as taking place in the garage,” it was a horrendous day for the former Pro Bowler. From a legal perspective, it was good news for Jacobs that the felonies are off the table.

If neither the Packers nor the NFL have taken action by now, maybe they won’t for Week 1. Or at all. His initial court appearance is set for Nov. 17, meaning this is a long way from getting to a legal resolution. The NFL doesn’t have to wait, though.

The wild card is if that video is leaked.

Here’s a long and interesting thread on the topic.

Thanks for your patience, everyone. Here is the Josh Jacobs #FFLegalUpdate about the charges that were handed down today, the legal issues involved, and what this means for his future in the NFL.

It's a tough one, so buckle up.

1/🧵
— Drew Davenport (@DrewDavenportFF) August 28, 2026

As for the other players on this list, let’s go through them one by one.

Josh Whyle: The addition of Jonnu Smith could put Whyle’s roster spot in some jeopardy. They are similar players in that neither is an old-school, on-the-line blocker. So, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Packers’ tight end group will be Tucker Kraft, Smith and Blocker TBA. Probably not, though.

Karl Brooks: There is no doubt that Brooks has earned his spot on the roster. While last year was a disappointment with a half-sack and one tackle for loss, he’s pretty clearly one of the best players in Green Bay’s powerful defensive tackle group. Plus, and it’s perhaps a small thing, he’s been working on No. 1 kickoff return. However, the power of the defensive tackle group could make Brooks a trade target for a team that needs some interior help.

Keisean Nixon: Nixon probably will be a Week 1 starter opposite Brandon Cisse. However, he hasn’t had a great training camp. If he’s not going to be a full-time, every-down starter, how would that impact Nixon in the locker room?

60.0 Percent to 89.9 Percent Locks (4)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: None.

Tight end: None.

Offensive line: None.

Edge: None.

Defensive tackles: Jonathan Ford.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Carrington Valentine, Kamal Hadden.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: LS Matt Orzech.

What changed: We went from three players to four in this tier. Cornerback Kamal Hadden moved up two tiers to this spot, Matt Orzech slipped into this group and Collin Oliver tumbled.

Analysis: Jonathan Ford keeps taking the No. 1 reps at nose tackle. The depth of the defensive line room might require Ford to deliver one more stout performance on Friday night to lock up his spot. In the range of this tier, though, he’s much closer to 89.9 percent.

In the case of Carrington Valentine, the Packers have a solid quartet at corner with Brandon Cisse, Keisean Nixon, Benjamin St-Juste and Valentine. As such, maybe Valentine could be traded rather than having him stuck on the bench as the No. 4 corner.

Kamal Hadden has earned his roster spot because he’ll provide credible depth at cornerback and nickel. His rise following last year’s injury has been impressive.

The coaches seem committed to keeping Matt Orzech as the snapper, even though he remains on PUP and kicker Trey Smack has found a groove.

50.1 Percent to 59.9 Percent Locks (4)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: None.

Tight end: None.

Offensive line: T/G Darian Kinnard.

Edge: Collin Oliver.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Domani Jackson.

Safeties: Mark Perry.

Specialists: None.

What changed: We went from three to four since last week, but with tight end Drake Dabney and edge Collin Oliver falling out of this tier and Mark Perry moving up.

Analysis: It’s been a disappointing training camp for Darian Kinnard due in part to an ankle injury. However, if the Packers needed someone to play right tackle in Week 1, he still might be a better bet than Anthony Belton. And Kinnard, like he did down the stretch last season, could solve the need for a blocking tight end.

Collin Oliver injured a calf at Denver, didn’t practice against Arizona and probably won’t play on Friday. Given his injury history and sporadic impact at practice, he seems squarely on the bubble. He said he’ll be ready for Week 1.

Being a draft pick with upside could give Domani Jackson the 53rd spot on the roster. He might have to earn it against the Cardinals, though. Mark Perry is the team’s fifth safety – so long as the team chooses to keep five safeties.

30 Percent to 49.9 Percent Locks (17)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: Pierre Strong.

Receivers: Isaiah Neyor, Will Sheppard, J. Michael Sturdivant.

Will Sheppard is one of the talented receivers in the mix for a roster spot. pic.twitter.com/P06qwHSaHW
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) August 26, 2026

Tight end: Drake Dabney.

Offensive line: G/C Donovan Jennings, G/C John Williams, T/G Travis Glover, G Dillon Wade.

Edge: Arron Mosby, Nyjalik Kelly.

Defensive tackles: Anthony Campbell, Nazir Stackhouse, Jaden Crumedy.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Jaylin Simpson.

Safeties: Murvin Kenion III.

Specialists: LS Cam Adomitis.

What changed: By the numbers, not much. We still have 17 players in this tier, with Cal Adomitis moving into this tier, Drake Dabney falling into this tier, and cornerback Kamal Hadden and safety Mark Perry moving up and out.

Analysis: However, the plot certainly has thickened at running back. What do the Packers really think of Josh Jacobs’ status? If Pierre Strong makes the 53, then the answer is obvious. Dating all the way back to OTAs, Strong has played well enough to merit a spot on the roster. Four running backs is a lot, though … unless that fourth back is a necessity.

Without knowing the exact nature of Savion Williams’ ankle, it’s hard to justify moving one of the receivers in this group up one tier. Besides, it’s anyone’s guess who the Packers would keep.

Isaiah Neyor and Will Sheppard lead the team in preseason receptions. Sheppard has been the most consistent but also has the most limited upside. Neyor has made some splash plays but had a drop against Denver and another during the joint practice. J. Michael Sturdivant has played a lot on special teams, perhaps a sign the coaches want to see what he can do in that phase because they like what he’s done at receiver.

Heck, for the speculation that the Packers could keep seven receivers, maybe they’d only keep five if Williams lands on IR.

Chances are one, perhaps two or as many as three of the offensive linemen will make it.

At defensive tackle, with Warren Brinson out, Anthony Campbell was on the field for the starters-vs.-starters 2-minute drill vs. Arizona.

Other than Sturdivant, Nyjalik Kelly is perhaps the best bet to extend Green Bay’s streak to 22 consecutive years with at least one undrafted rookie making it on the Week 1 roster.

0 Percent to 29.9 Percent Locks (23)

Quarterbacks: Kyle McCord.

Running backs: Damien Martinez, Jaden Nixon.

Receivers: Kisean Johnson, Kaden Prather, Chris Hilton.

Jordan Love to Kisean Johnson on Monday. pic.twitter.com/NHZf3QLuPH
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) August 26, 2026

Tight end: Luke Musgrave (neck), Messiah Swinson, McCallan Castles, Thomas Yassmin (international).

Offensive line: T Brant Banks, G/C Dylan Barrett, T Dalton Cooper, G Josh Gesky.

Edge: Micah Parsons (knee), Arden Walker.

Defensive tackles: Jordon Riley (Achilles).

Linebackers: Kristian Welch, T.J. Quinn.

Cornerbacks: Shemar Bartholomew, M.J. Devonshire.

Safeties: Trey Dean III, Tra Fluellen.

Specialists: None.

What changed: Long snapper Cal Adomitis moved up a rung, cutting the number here from 24 to 23.

Analysis: These players, obviously, are long shots to get through Sunday’s roster cuts unscathed.

No, Kyle McCord is not going to unseat Tyrod Taylor as the backup.

“He’s obviously got a lot of pelts on the wall,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said before the joint practice. “I think Kyle’s done an incredible job and I’m excited to see him not only today but he’s going to get a ton of work on Friday night. But we brought Tyrod in here for a reason and we’re very happy we have him.”

If not for the depth at the top of the depth chart, Kristian Welch and TJ Quinn would be in position to make the roster. Welch is a proven player on special teams and Quinn has taken some No. 1 reps on special teams.

Parsons, Musgrave and Riley are destined to start the regular season on the PUP list.

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