Packers Lock-O-Meter 3.0 Projects 53-Man Roster With 10 Days Until Final Cuts

GREEN BAY, Wis. – On Aug. 30, 10 days from today, Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst will have to select his 53-man roster.

While it’s getting late in a hurry in the race for roster spots, there are two preseason games remaining – including Friday night at the Denver Broncos – and a joint practice and preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals next week. So, there are some big days ahead for players looking to make a late statement.

With some fresh food for the hamsters that spin the wheel that powers our patent-pending Packers Roster Lock-O-Meter, here’s where things stand since last week.

100 Percent Locks (36)

Quarterbacks: Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor.

Running backs: Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks.

Receivers: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams.

Tight end: Tucker Kraft, Josh Whyle.

Offensive line: LT Jordan Morgan, LG Aaron Banks, C Sean Rhyan, RG Jacob Monk, RT Zach Bako-Bewele, T/G Anthony Belton, C/G Jager Burton.

Edge: Lukas Van Ness, Barryn Sorrell, Dani Dennis Sutton, Brenton Cox.

Defensive tackles: Devonte Wyatt, Javon Hargrave, Chris McClellan, Warren Brinson.

Linebackers: Edgerrin Cooper, Zaire Franklin, Isaiah McDuffie, Ty’Ron Hopper.

Cornerbacks: Brandon Cisse, Benjamin St-Juste.

Safeties: Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, Javon Bullard.

Specialists: P Daniel Whelan.

What changed: The locks count increased from 33 to 36. It was time to move Monk up one tier and into the 100 percent category. After all, if the season were starting today, he’d be the starting right guard. Cox moved up two tiers. He’s been one of the team’s best pass rushers throughout training camp, which is no surprise. Belatedly, probably, Hopper and St-Juste moved up one tier, as well.

Analysis: These will be the team’s core players for the upcoming season.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Bo Melton (16) makes a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

90.0 Percent to 99.9 Percent Locks (8)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: Bo Melton, Skyy Moore.

Tight end: None.

Offensive line: None.

Edge: None.

Defensive tackles: Karl Brooks.

Linebackers: Nick Niemann.

Cornerbacks: Keisean Nixon.

Safeties: Kitan Oladapo.

Specialists: Trey Smack, LS Matt Orzech.

What changed: Niemann and Smack all moved up one tier. Nixon moved out of the 100 percent tier.

Analysis: Let’s get right to the big one, and that’s cornerback. The competition at cornerback has run hot and cold. Some days, Nixon takes all (or almost all) of the first-team reps. Other days, such as Wednesday, his reps are split between the first and second units.

Nixon probably is going to be a Week 1 starter. But that’s not a lock. And if he’s not a starter, would either party be happy with Nixon in the locker room as a backup? Nixon, a veteran corner with a reasonable salary, could be in demand on the trade market.

Brooks would be a stone-cold lock if the Packers weren’t deep at defensive tackle. But they are, which means he could be part of a trade to bolster depth at another position group or add another 2027 draft pick.

The other players on this list are closer to the top of the tier than the bottom. Smack’s roster chances, obviously, were bolstered at Pittsburgh.

60.0 Percent to 89.9 Percent Locks (3)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: None.

Tight end: None.

Offensive line: None.

Edge: Collin Oliver.

Defensive tackles: Jonathan Ford.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Carrington Valentine.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: None.

What changed: Everything. The players in this tier previously have moved out. In Lock-O-Meter 3.0, Ford moved up two tiers and Valentine and Oliver moved up one.

Analysis: For the first half of training camp, Nazir Stackhouse was taking more first-team reps at nose tackle than Ford. However, Ford got the start against the Steelers and has been running ahead of Stackhouse all week.

“You need a big nose” in Jonathan Gannon’s scheme, Ford said on Wednesday. “You need a guy that’s able to anchor the run and move side to side well, and I think I’ve been doing pretty good.”

Valentine missed a bunch of camp with a hamstring injury but has returned and quickly was given some first-team reps. With the additions of Brandon Cisse and Benjamin St-Juste, both of whom are running ahead of Valentine, a trade of Valentine certainly is possible (especially if Nixon starts).

Green Bay Packers cornerback Domani Jackson (20) runs through a drill during practice on Aug. 3. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

50.1 Percent to 59.9 Percent Locks (3)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: None.

Tight end: Drake Dabney.

Offensive line: T/G Darian Kinnard.

Edge: None

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Domani Jackson.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: None.

What changed: Kinnard, who started training camp in our 100 percent category, moved down two tiers since our last running of the Lock-O-Meter.

Analysis: Capable veteran offensive line depth doesn’t exactly grow on trees, so we’ll keep Kinnard on the right side of the bubble even while he’s out with an ankle injury sustained at Pittsburgh. Dabney might make it by default at tight end, even if there is an addition between now and Week 1.

Jackson, a sixth-round pick, finally took part in his first 11-on-11 drills this week. As a draft pick – especially one with obvious upside – he’ll probably get the benefit of the doubt in any bubble battles.

30 Percent to 49.9 Percent Locks (17)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: Pierre Strong.

Receivers: Isaiah Neyor, Will Sheppard, J. Michael Sturdivant.

Tight end: None.

Offensive line: G/C Donovan Jennings, G/C John Williams, T/G Travis Glover, G Dillon Wade.

Edge: Arron Mosby, Nyjalik Kelly.

Defensive tackles: Nazir Stackhouse, Anthony Campbell, Jaden Crumedy.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Kamal Hadden, Jaylin Simpson.

Safeties: Mark Perry, Murvin Kenion III.

Specialists: None.

What changed: Crumedy and Kenion moved up one tier.

Analysis: We have a total of 51 players in the 50-plus percent tiers so, obviously, aat least a couple players from this bunch are going to make it.

Could the Packers take one of the receiver and go into the season with seven? That’s probably a long shot but all three have shown they are worthy at times.

Green Bay Packers receiver Will Sheppard (82) is in the mix for a roster spot. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

“I think coming out of camp, we’ve done that a few times,” general manager Brian Gutekunst said this week. “But I think if you’re going to do that, there’s going to be a couple of those guys are going to have to be pretty valuable teams guys. And I think we have some of those.”

On the offensive line, Jennings can play all three interior spots while Williams has been the No. 2 left tackle after focusing on center and guard. Jennings is the more ready-to-go player but Williams could potentially help at left tackle, which is a premium position and one a lot harder to fill.

On the defensive line, the Packers are loaded at tackle. If Wyatt, Hargrave, McClellan, Brinson, Brooks and Ford are the front-runners for six spots, is there room on the roster for seven or is that overkill? Stackhouse, Crumedy and Campbell are having strong camps. Stackhouse probably has the edge, though Crumedy and Campbell offer more versatility.

At cornerback, the futures of Nixon and Valentine no doubt are tied to the futures of Simpson and Hadden. Both players have dabbled in the slot. The one who proves to be the best option as Bullard’s backup probably will win the job.

The Packers usually keep five safeties. Perry and Kenion, both of whom played with physicality vs. Pittsburgh, are the obvious leaders for that last spot. Perry’s play on special teams would give him the edge.

0 Percent to 29.9 Percent Locks (24)

Quarterbacks: Kyle McCord.

Running backs: Damien Martinez, Jaden Nixon.

Receivers: Kisean Johnson, Kaden Prather, Chris Hilton.

Tight end: Luke Musgrave (neck), Messiah Swinson, McCallan Castles, Thomas Yassmin (international).

Offensive line: T Brant Banks, G/C Dylan Barrett, T Dalton Cooper, G Josh Gesky.

Edge: Micah Parsons (knee), Arden Walker.

Defensive tackles: Jordon Riley (Achilles).

Linebackers: Kristian Welch, T.J. Quinn.

Cornerbacks: Shemar Bartholomew, M.J. Devonshire.

Safeties: Trey Dean III, Tra Fluellen.

Specialists: LS Cam Adomitis.

What changed: Welch, the Wisconsin native, moved down one tier. He just hasn’t made any headway in a strong position group. Johnson, Hilton, Dean, Fluellen and Walker are new to the roster since the last running of the Lock-O-Meter.

Analysis: These players, obviously, are the long shots.

Parsons, Musgrave and Riley are destined to start the regular season on the PUP list. The Packers have high hopes for Riley, who was a factor after being signed off the Giants’ practice squad.

“Just watching him work, … I don’t want to speak for anybody, but it appears to me he’s ahead of schedule and he will be a big bonus for us,” coach Matt LaFleur said.

Adomitis is the one player from this tier with the best chance of making the roster. The Packers have a strong belief in Orzech’s track record, but Smack has found his groove.

“Cal’s done a heck of a job just going in there, and he’s played a lot of ball,” LaFleur said. “But I think we know what Matt brings to the table, as well.”

Yesterday was the 14th practice of Packers training camp.

So, here are a total of 14 winners and losers from Wednesday. ⬇️https://t.co/SlJSIObp8j
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) August 20, 2026

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