Projecting Packers’ 53-Man Roster With Lock-O-Meter Before Preseason

GREEN BAY, Wis. – “Everything” matters in the evaluation of a player, as coach Matt LaFleur would quickly tell you, but no part of training camp matters more than the preseason.

The Green Bay Packers will kick off their preseason against Mike McCarthy’s Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. The three exhibition games will weigh heavily in general manager Brian Gutekunst’s final decisions on players on the roster bubble.

Here’s how things are shaping up with our patent-pending Lock-O-Meter, which received a software update from Windows 3 since we ran it before training camp. Note: All players are assumed healthy unless noted.

100 Percent Locks (33)

Quarterbacks: Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor.

Running backs: Josh Jacobs, Chris Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd.

Receivers: Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Savion Williams.

Tight end: Tucker Kraft, Josh Whyle.

Offensive line: LT Jordan Morgan, LG Aaron Banks, C Sean Rhyan, RT Zach Bako-Bewele, T/G Anthony Belton, C/G Jager Burton.

Edge: Lukas Van Ness, Barryn Sorrell, Dani Dennis Sutton.

Defensive tackles: Devonte Wyatt, Javon Hargrave, Chris McClellan, Warren Brinson.

Linebackers: Edgerrin Cooper, Zaire Franklin, Isaiah McDuffie.

Cornerbacks: Keisean Nixon, Brandon Cisse.

Safeties: Xavier McKinney, Evan Williams, Javon Bullard.

Specialists: P Daniel Whelan.

What changed: Lloyd moved up two tiers and Brinson moved up one tier. Offensive tackle Darian Kinnard and long snapper Matt Orzech dropped one tier.

Analysis: These players will form the core of the roster that will compete for championships this season. Health, obviously, is the wild card for all players – and Lloyd, to state the obvious, is no exception. But he’s gotten through eight practices with no issues, so we see no reason to assume something bad is going to happen between now and Week 1 at the Vikings.

After a promising finish to his rookie season, Brinson moved up because he’s taken a huge Year 2 jump. He might have more quarterback pressures on the practice field than any other player on the roster.

90.0 Percent to 99.9 Percent Locks (8)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: Bo Melton, Skyy Moore.

Tight end: None.

Offensive line: C/G Jacob Monk, T/G Darian Kinnard.

Edge: None.

Defensive tackles: Karl Brooks.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Benjamin St-Juste.

Safeties: Kitan Oladapo.

Specialists: LS Matt Orzech.

What changed: Monk, Moore and St-Juste moved up one tier to this spot and Kinnard and Orzech fell one tier to here.

Analysis: The Packers need a swing offensive tackle. Before camp, the assumption is that would be Kinnard, who played relatively well in extended action last season at right tackle and tight tend. However, with the O-line shakeup that has taken Belton out of the starting lineup, the ice beneath Kinnard’s feet got just a little thinner.

The changes up front have thrust Monk into the race for the starting job at right guard. Monk took almost all of those reps on Thursday and at Family Night.

The Packers signed Moore and St-Juste to (relatively) small contracts in free agency. Unless Moore drops the ball in the return game, his spot is secure. He might even help at receiver after catching five passes last season. St-Juste is off to a really good start, even though he hasn’t made any headway in the race for a starting job.

The numbers at the position are why Karl Brooks isn’t in the 100 percent category. As he enters his final season under contract, he has spent a lot of training camp in the offensive backfield. The team could be dealing from an unexpected position of strength in the trade market.

With Trey Smack kicking better, it’s possible the Packers will roll with Cal Adomitis instead of Orzech at long snapper, so we dropped Orzech into this tier.

60.0 Percent to 89.9 Percent Locks (4)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: None.

Tight end: None.

Offensive line: None.

Edge: Brenton Cox.

Defensive tackles: None.

Linebackers: Ty’Ron Hopper, Nick Niemann.

Cornerbacks: None.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: Trey Smack.

What changed: We’ve gone from nine players to four. TE Luke Musgrave fell to the bottom tier, and Monk, Lloyd, Moore and St-Juste moved up.

Analysis: Cox, Hopper and Niemann are much closer to 89.9 percent than 60 percent. Cox hasn’t been dominant or anything, but he has been the most effective pass rusher from the edge group. Hopper was on the field for the young-guys period at the end of Family Night, so that’s why he’s here and not up a tier. Niemann is a fixture on special teams.

If Smack kicks like he did on Family Night, when he made 6-of-7 attempts (7-of-8 if you include one nullified by a penalty), he will win the job.

50.1 Percent to 59.9 Percent Locks (5)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: None.

Receivers: None.

Tight end: Drake Dabney.

Offensive line: None.

Edge: Collin Oliver.

Defensive tackles: Nazir Stackhouse.

Linebackers: None.

Cornerbacks: Carrington Valentine, Domani Jackson.

Safeties: None.

Specialists: None.

What changed: Dabney shot up from our bottom tier into this tier and Stackhouse is up one tier.

Analysis: If Kraft and Whyle are locked into the top two spots at tight end, then either Dabney is the obvious front-runner for the third or that player is on some other team’s roster. He’s shown some pop as an in-line blocker, which is a niche that must be filled without John FitzPatrick.

Stackhouse is having a strong camp as a run-stopping defensive tackle. The Packers will need that skill-set because Wyatt, Hargrave, Brooks and Brinson are penetrators.

Valentine is injured and in danger of losing his starting job to Cisse. It’s possible the Packers will roll with Nixon, Cisse and St-Juste as their primary corners and put Valentine on the trade market. Jackson, who has been limited to individual drills, clings to his spot in this tier just because he’s a draft pick.

30 Percent to 49.9 Percent Locks (17)

Quarterbacks: None.

Running backs: Pierre Strong.

Receivers: Will Sheppard, Isaiah Neyor, J. Michael Sturdivant.

Tight end: None.

Offensive line: G/C Donovan Jennings, G/C John Williams, T/G Travis Glover, G Dillon Wade.

Edge: Arron Mosby, Nyjalik Kelly.

Defensive tackles: Anthony Campbell, Jonathan Ford.

Linebackers: Kristian Welch.

Cornerbacks: Kamal Hadden, Jaylin Simpson.

Safeties: Johnathan Baldwin, Mark Perry.

Specialists: None.

What changed: Tight ends RJ Maryland and Luke Lachey and K Lucas Havrisik, who were in this tier, are no longer on the roster. Glover fell one tier and Campbell and Strong moved up one tier. Tight end Messiah Swinson dropped out of this tier, as did offensive linemen Brant Banks, Dalton Cooper and Josh Gesky.

Analysis: The biggest three weeks of their football lives are ahead for the players in this tier.

Focusing on the offensive line, Jennings has taken some first-team snaps for most of training camp and will get a lot of action in the preseason to show he belongs. Williams has played left tackle, left guard and center at practice. His ability to do that would be huge for the gameday roster, but only if he can play at least one of those positions at a winning level. He’s got to prove it. Those two could be battling for one spot.

Campbell has been the story of training camp. He barely played in two seasons at Miami and went undrafted last year, but he’s been a consistent menace at practice. The numbers at the position, however, could work against him.

Between Baldwin, Perry and Murvin Kenion III, one player will win a spot on the 53. Baldwin seemed to be that guy due to his work in the slot, but he’s been out with a knee injury. Perry is a pure safety who is a No. 1 on some of the special-teams units.

Strong’s place on special teams is why he moved up to this tier, though he’s closer to 30 percent than 49.9 percent.

0 Percent to 29.9 Percent Locks (24)

Quarterbacks: Kyle McCord, Kyron Drones.

Running backs: Damien Martinez, Jaden Nixon.

Receivers: Kaden Prather.

Tight end: Luke Musgrave (neck), Messiah Swinson, Drew Biber, McCallan Castles, Thomas Yassmin (international).

Offensive line: T Brant Banks, G/C Dylan Barrett, G/T Karsen Barnhart, T Dalton Cooper, G Josh Gesky.

Edge: Micah Parsons (knee).

Defensive tackles: Jordon Riley (Achilles), Jaden Crumedy.

Linebackers: T.J. Quinn.

Cornerbacks: Shemar Bartholomew, M.J. Devonshire, Marlon Jones.

Safeties: Murvin Kenion III.

Specialists: LS Cam Adomitis.

What changed: The usual churning of the bottom of the roster included the release of WR Brenden Rice. Musgrave fell from the top tier to the bottom tier as he grapples with an injury. Banks, Cooper, Gesky, Swinson and Bartholomew fell into this tier.

Analysis: This list has grown from 18 players to 23. Parsons, Musgrave and Riley are on the physically unable to perform list, which leaves the door open for them to open the season on PUP.

The running backs could make a move in the preseason, when they will finally get a chance to show they can break a tackle and get into the open field. The injuries at tight end should have opened the door for Swinson to make a move but have not. The team’s depth at defensive tackle, linebacker and cornerback will work against the players here.

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