Three Reasons Why Packers Will Beat Broncos, Cement Super Bowl Resume

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Broncos, leading off with the big matchup at quarterback between Jordan Love and Bo Nix.

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love throws a pass against the Denver Broncos in 2023. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers have made their move. They won at Detroit. They took first place from Chicago.

Now, they’ll jump from the frying pan into the fire. On Sunday, the Packers (9-3-1) will play at the Denver Broncos (11-2), who have won 10 consecutive games and 11 in a row at home. Here are three reasons why the Packers will stay hot in and win what could be a Super Bowl preview.

No. 1: Jordan Love vs. Bo Nix

In 2023, the Packers lost 19-17 at Denver. Jordan Love was 21-of-31 passing for 180 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. The Packers were shut out in the first half and scored 17 points on their first three possessions of the second half but, with a chance to win the game, Love threw his interception.

The Broncos will not face that version of Love on Sunday.

Love is fourth in the league with a 105.4 passer rating. A quarterback who was too inaccurate and too mistake-prone during his first two seasons is ninth with a 67.1 completion percentage. With 22 touchdowns and four interceptions, his 5.5 touchdowns per interception trails only Matthew Stafford among starters.

The Broncos have dominated most quarterbacks this season. They’re fifth in opponent passer rating, including fourth in home games. They’re first in sacks and third in passes defensed.

Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, however, knows his unit will be challenged.

“I think he has [improved] in every part of his game, in my opinion,” he told reporters this week. “His accuracy, he is really good vs. pressure and nonpressure. This young quarterback, when you watch him operate, especially on third downs as far as protections, he’s putting them in the right protections and the ball is going to the right spots. During motions and shifts, he is in total control. When you watch the TV copies and you hear the verbiage, it’s through him. Every game they’ve played this year, he is right on. He is taking care of the ball and he has great skill.

“It’s going to be a challenge. He is playing at a high level. He’s accurate, he’s making big plays and he’s being aggressive, which is scary for a defense. His timing on big plays has killed defenses. It’s going to be a challenge for us to get him stopped.”

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) takes the snap during the first quarter of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

In the other corner, it’s second-year Broncos quarterback Bo Nix. Of 27 qualifying quarterbacks, Nix is 23rd with an 86.4 passer rating. That’s 19 points behind Love. He’s 20th in completion percentage and 25th in yards per attempt, and he’s thrown 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Packers safety Xavier McKinney compared him to Bears quarterback Caleb Williams because of his ability to make plays on the move.

That showed up during the joint practice in Denver last year.

“Had really good command for a young player in and out of the huddle, good presence about him, good leadership,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley recalled. “It wasn’t big for him. He’s got a strong arm. He can make the throws. He’s good in the pocket. He can get out of the pocket.

“What he’s shown this year in some big key moments is using his legs. He’s made some huge plays at the end of the game. I picture the one against Houston at the end of the game where he went for the big run [of 22 yards] to lead them to the win. Just a really good young quarterback who’s got a really bright future.”

While the future is bright for Nix, the future is now for Love, who has nine touchdowns and only interception during the four-game winning streak.

As a brief aside, the Broncos defense plays a lot of man coverage. Against man, of 44 quarterbacks who’ve had at least 100 dropbacks, Love is third with a 115.3 passer rating. That includes 143.8 last week against Chicago and 119.2 during the team’s three-game sweep of the NFC North.

No. 2: Strength vs. Strength

The matchup within the matchup will be every time Green Bay’s offense is on the field for third down.

Offensively, the Packers are No. 1 in the NFL with a 50.6 percent conversion rate. Defensively, the Broncos are No. 1 with an opponent conversion rate of 30.9 percent.

“I don’t know what the analytics say in regards to what our average third-down (distance is),” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said on Friday. “I do feel like we’ve for the most part done a pretty decent job of staying in third-and-manageable situations.”

He’s exactly right.

League-wide, the average third down requires 7.0 yards. The Packers on offense face the second-shortest third downs, with an average distance required of 6.2 yards. They have run the third-most plays of third-and-4 or shorter.

Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur leaves the field at halftime against the Broncos in 2024 preseason. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Broncos on defense have gone against the longest third downs, with an average distance required of 7.7 yards.  They have faced the second-most plays of third-and-8 or longer.

“Conversely,” LaFleur continued, “when you look at Denver, there is so many third-and-longs on tape. It’s crazy how many times people get behind the sticks vs. them. It’s a credit to the talent and the scheme. They do a good job of forcing you into those third-and-longs. I think that’s going to be one of the keys to the game is just trying to stay in front of the sticks a little bit.”

Packers quarterback Jordan Love leads the NFL with 970 passing yards on third down and is second with 51 first downs.

Denver’s dynamic duo of edge rushers, Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper, have combined for 10.5 sacks on third down. Cooper is tied for fourth with 5.5 sacks and Bonitto is tied for seventh with 5.0 sacks. Cornerback Riley Moss is tied for first with seven pass breakups and cornerback Patrick Surtain is tied for sixth with five.

Really, every situation will be a slugfest. Here are the conversion rates in the critical areas.

• Packers offense on third down: First, 50.6 percent. Broncos defense: First, 30.9 percent.

• Packers offense on fourth down: Third, 70.6 percent. Broncos defense: 14th, 52.9 percent.

• Packers offense in red zone: Second, 68.1 percent. Broncos defense: First, 40.0 percent.

• Packers offense in goal-to-go: Second, 95.2 percent. Broncos defense: First, 62.5 percent.

No. 3. Are Broncos Paper Tigers?

The Broncos are tied for the best record in the NFL. They are a very good team. But their record has been fattened by a Charmin-soft schedule. 

The Broncos’ strength of victory is .325, with their 11 wins coming against teams with a combined 46.5 wins. From that perspective, no team with a winning record has played a weaker schedule. Of Denver’s 11 wins, only three have come against teams with a winning record. 

Overall, their 13 opponents have a .376 winning percentage. That’s the second-easiest slate of games in the league.

Winning, indeed, is the only thing, but it’s not as if the Broncos have totally thrived against a series of suspect opponents. In some cases, they’ve merely survived. Bo Nix leads the NFL in fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives.

It was impressive that the Broncos scored 33 points in the fourth quarter to come back from a 19-point deficit and beat the Giants 33-32. It’s not impressive that they needed to score 33 points in the fourth quarter – one point off the NFL record for most points in a fourth quarter in NFL history – to beat the Giants.

“We know it’s going to be a fourth-quarter game but, at the same time, we’re not the Giants and any other defense they faced this year, they ain’t have us,” defensive end Micah Parsons said. “I don’t think they’ve played anybody like us outside of Houston. I’m excited to go see what we do against this team.”

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