Surprising Point Spread for Packers’ Game at Powerhouse Broncos

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Denver Broncos have the best record in the NFL. They have one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL.

On Sunday, they’re underdogs against the Green Bay Packers.

“My mom thinks we’ll win, so that’s all that matters,” Broncos quarterback Bo Nix told reporters on Wednesday.

The Packers are 2.5-point favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook, even though they’re 1-7 all-time at Denver.

The Broncos and Patriots are tied with an NFL-best 11-2 record. Denver has won 10 consecutive games this season and 11 in a row at home dating to last season.

Two things will work in Denver’s favor for what could be a Super Bowl preview. One is the Mile High City’s elevation. The Packers can prepare all week for coach Sean Payton’s offensive schemes and defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s blitz packages, but there’s no preparing for the decreased oxygen and the 4,700-foot difference in elevation between Denver and Green Bay.

“I think you’ve just got to be conditioned,” quarterback Jordan Love said. “I think that plays a factor in being out there, being a little bit tired more than usual. So, I think it just comes down to conditioning and knowing that it’s going to be a little bit different atmosphere than what you’re used to. I think we got a good feel for it last year when we practiced out there, but it is something that plays a factor.”

The bigger factor might be Denver’s fans. The noise brought by the 76,000 in attendance, paired with the impact it can make for its star-studded defense, will mean an incredible challenge for the Love-led offense. Denver is fourth in the league with 18.1 points allowed per game. That goes down to 16.2 at home.

“It’s a hell of a question. I think everybody’s trying to figure that out right now,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said when asked about the starting point of Denver’s defense.

Against the run, the Broncos are No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. Against the pass, the Broncos are on pace to tie the single-season sacks record.

“They’ve got a lot of great players, and they put them in great position, and they go out there and they play,” LaFleur said. “I think there’s a lot of similarities when I look at our defense in regards to the style of play, how hard they play, how hard they finish and tackle. And so it’s going to be a great test for us.”

Why are the Packers favored? Two reasons. One, Love is having a significantly better than season than his counterpart, Nix. Of 29 qualifying quarterbacks, Love has the fourth-best passer rating and Nix has the fifth-lowest. Two, of the 17 teams with records of over .500, Denver’s strength of victory of .325 is by the lowest.

This will be Payton’s 24th home game as coach of the Broncos. His teams are 17-6. They’ve been home underdogs only four previous times. Two of them were against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, with Denver winning both, including 22-19 this season.

Payton is counting on the home fans to make life miserable for Love and Co. as he tries to win homefield advantage in the AFC.

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton is shown during the 2023 game against the Green Bay Packers at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

“I don’t really pay attention to that,” Payton said. “We know we’re playing a good football team, so that’s something that we have no control over. We have four tough opponents the next four weeks, three of the four of them are at home. We’re counting on our crowd this week, not just at the line of scrimmage, but while they’re in the huddle.

“I go back to a few weeks ago and that communication that exists from the opponent when they’re in the huddle, you’d be surprised when some teams, stadiums, have it figured out, that the quarterback to the group in the huddle, it all gets blurry. You have problems. I thought our last home game with Kansas City was significant. I’m counting on it being at an even higher level. Yes, we’re playing a good team.”

The Packers are 4-1-1 on the road this season. Under LaFleur, they are 8-8 on the road against AFC teams.

“It doesn’t matter if a team is 3-whatever or 9-whatever, you’re going to get their best shot,” Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton told reporters in Denver. “Obviously, records play a part in how teams are portrayed in the media but, at the end of the day you’re dealing with a group of guys that are very prideful and want to go out there and be successful whether their record reflects it or not.

“To be able to go out and play against a team like the Packers, obviously, them being in the other conference, is going to be different. They’re a really good team. They just came off of a really big win at home against Chicago, who is another really good team. They’re playing some really good football. The biggest thing we have to understand and that everybody needs to understand is just that it’s the most important game because it’s the next game. We’re going to be preparing ourselves to go play against this team, a really talented, well-coached team and have a good game on Sunday.”

Green Bay’s only win at Denver came in 2007, when Brett Favre and Greg Jennings connected for an 82-yard touchdown pass on the first play of overtime.

Of their seven losses in Denver, five were by two scores. An exception was 2023, when Love and the Packers lost 19-17. Love, however, is 7-1 in his last eight against the AFC with 15 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 108.7 passer rating.

This will mark just the fourth time in franchise history that the Packers have faced a team on a single-season winning streak of 10-plus games. The Packers lost at Detroit last season, beat Seattle at home in the 2005 finale (a meaningless game for the Seahawks) and won at undefeated Detroit in 1934.

While the Packers have a typically long injury report – especially compared to Denver’s – both teams are in relatively good health. Only Josh Jacobs, whose over/under for Sunday is 77.5 rushing yards, didn’t practice for the Packers on Thursday.

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