Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Commanders

The Green Bay Packers will face their second huge challenge of the season when they host the Washington Commanders tonight. Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose.

Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is one of the top dual-threat players in the NFL. | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers on Sunday manhandled the Detroit Lions, who were coming off a 15-2 season and second consecutive NFC North title. On Thursday night, they will face another huge challenge against the Washington Commanders, who beat the Lions in last year’s playoffs and reached the NFC Championship Game.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will lose.

1. Jayden Daniels’ Excellence

A great quarterback gives his team a chance to win every week. Washington’s Jayden Daniels might not be great yet but he seemingly is on his way to joining that second tier of quarterbacks chasing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow.

Daniels is an elite dual-threat player. The NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year finished with 3,568 passing yards and 891 rushing yards last year. That’s 262 yards per game.

Daniels is a superior athlete. He finished second in the NFL with 6.02 yards per carry. Among all players, he ranked 11th in forced missed tackles with 51 and ninth with 31 runs of 10-plus yards, according to Pro Football Focus. He had six games of more than 65 rushing yards, including 127 against Atlanta in Week 17.

Daniels is so much more than just a runner, though. He finished 10th in the league in passer rating and, perhaps most impressively, sixth with a 69.0 completion percentage. With drops taken out of the equation, his adjusted completion rate at PFF was close to 80 percent.

With Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel at receiver and Zach Ertz at tight end, Daniels has three quality targets.

“He’s impressive because he’ll stay in the pocket and throw the ball, just like he’ll run to run and run to throw,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “For what he’s done in a short period of time in this league, it’s incredible. I have a ton of respect watching him. I’ve never coached against him, I’ve never met him, but it jumps off the tape.”

Before the season, Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer surveyed numerous NFL coaches and executives to compile his ranking of the top 10 quarterbacks in the NFL. Daniels was fifth.

“It’s a combination of everything,” one AFC executive said, noting Daniels’ deep-ball and play-extending ability. “He’s going to continue to improve as a passer, he scrambles to find open guys and takes care of the ball. Every play can go for 40 yards.”

Taking away those big plays will be critical for the Packers.

2. Deebo Samuel’s Versatility

Washington Commanders wide receiver Deebo Samuel (1) goes for a touchdown during the third quarter against the New York Giants. | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Terry McLaurin is Washington’s No. 1 receiver. He is coming off his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season, ranked second with 13 receiving touchdowns and was tied for second with five touchdown catches on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield.

This offseason, the Commanders acquired Deebo Samuel from the 49ers for a fifth-round pick. Samuel rose to fame in 2021. A first-team All-Pro who had 1,400 receiving yards while doubling as the No. 1 running back, Samuel was part of the team that shocked the Packers in the divisional round of the playoffs.

That seems like forever ago. The 29-year-old had 632 receiving yards in 2022, 892 in 2023 and 670 in 2024. Last year, he averaged 8.7 yards per touch, which is about 2.5 yards less than his career average.

Samuel’s best days might be behind him but he’s still a significant factor. Against the Giants on Sunday, he caught seven passes for 77 yards and added a 19-yard touchdown run. He’s just so big and strong and versatile – which is why the Packers turned down opportunities to address critical needs and drafted Savion Williams in the third round.

For his career, Samuel has averaged 9.2 yards after the catch per catch. Between run and pass, he has averaged 31.8 forced missed tackles per season. Last year, he forced 25; that’s more than all of Green Bay’s receivers combined. On his touchdown run against the Giants, he broke one tackle and gained 15 yards after contact.

“He plays aggressive and downhill,” Commanders coach Dan Quinn said after the 21-6 victory over the Giants.

The Packers’ defense smothered the Lions on Sunday, allowing zero touchdowns and less than 200 yards before the final possession. Detroit’s got a lot of firepower on offense. So does Washington with the addition of Samuel.

“They’ve got a ton of weapons with McLaurin, Deebo, Zach Ertz,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “Obviously, Jayden Daniels, there’s nothing he can’t do. Then you’ve got guys like [running back Austin] Ekeler. They’ve just got a lot of players they can get the ball to, so it's going to be a great challenge for our defense.”

3. Washington’s Defensive Front

The Commanders had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season. So, they threw money at the problem by signing defensive tackles Javon Kinlaw and Eddie Goldman in free agency.

The early returns were impressive. While nobody will confuse the Giants of having even an above-average running attack, Washington limited them to 3.22 yards per carry and 79 rushing yards. Quarterback Russell Wilson was the Giants’ leading rusher. On handoffs to running backs, Washington limited them to 15 carries for 30 yards with a long run of 6.

Green Bay will pose a much, much stronger challenge with Pro Bowler Josh Jacobs. Jacobs couldn’t find much running room against Detroit. Of his 66 rushing yards, 57 came after contact, according to Sports Info Solutions.

“They have a really big D-line group. They play five upfront,” Jacobs said this week, with Kinlaw and Goldman joined by former first-round pick and Pro Bowler Daron Payne as the defensive tackles.

“They have a lot of guys who are veterans in this league. I think they have one of the oldest defenses in this league. “Obviously, you know they got Bobby Wagner on that linebacker side. No. 4 (Frankie Luvu), he’s been playing really good, high-level ball. It’s crazy because they have an older group but they’re all still very physical and they still move pretty good. It’s going to be a good test for us this week.”

Wagner is a first- or second-team All-Pro each of the last 11 seasons. Luvu was a second-team All-Pro last year, as well. All of that talent gives Washington the ability to stop the run and turn Green Bay’s offense into a one-dimensional attack, especially with the potential that starting left guard Aaron Banks and starting right tackle Zach Tom will not play.

“Most good offensive lines, you can see the continuity, you can see them playing together,” Commanders coach Dan Quinn said. “I definitely feel that Green Bay, they have a system and a style and a way that they play, and they really stayed true to that. So, the proof is in the results of what they've done in the run game.

“And then when you added Jacobs into it, this is a tough guy and he's able to make big plays able to score touchdowns. Yeah, that's for sure one of the key points in this game.”

Jacobs faced one of the highest loaded-box rates in the league last week. He might face the same challenge on Thursday.

“I like me in any situation,” he said. “I don’t care if they got eight in the box, nine in the box, I’ll still believe in myself to make something happen. For a lot of part, when teams play that way where they load the box up, most of the time when you get past that first initial line, it's like home runs. It’s only the safety or the corner, and we like those odds. 

“We know that as an offensive unit, it’s going to be that way, because of what we did last year, so we looking forward to the challenge.”