Packers-Bears Matchups: What Changed, Who Has Edge in Crucial Rematch?

For the second time in three weeks, the Green Bay Packers will battle the Chicago Bears with first place in the NFC North on the line. Here’s a fresh look at the matchups through the prism of the first game and what could be different on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers receiver Christian Watson (9) breaks free for a touchdown reception against the Chicago Bears. | Tork Mason-USA TODAY Network via

Two weeks ago, the Green Bay Packers went into a game against the Chicago Bears in second place in the NFC North. They walked out of Lambeau Field with a 28-21 victory that they hoped would be a springboard to putting a stranglehold on a potential division title.

Instead, Green Bay lost to Denver on Sunday and Chicago handled the Cleveland Browns at home. In essence, the teams are right back where they started two weeks ago.

The difference this time is the Packers and Bears are walking wounded coming into Saturday night’s showdown at Soldier Field.

Normally, we would take you through the matchups of this week’s game, but the teams just met. Instead, here is a spin on what could be different and who won the matchups the first time the teams met.

Bears Pass Offense vs. Packers Pass Defense

Week 14 Advantage: Packers

Who Won?: Packers

Chicago’s offense could not have had a worse start during the first meeting. Star defensive end Micah Parsons created havoc early and often against Caleb Williams, who only completed one of his first seven passes.

Williams’ first two passes sailed well over his receivers’ heads, and the Packers’ defense suffocated Chicago’s offense, holding them to just three points in the first half. In the second half, Williams found a rhythm with their bootleg game and used his athleticism to stay away from the pressure Parsons provided.

Green Bay Packers defensive end Micah Parsons (1) pressures Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The obvious difference in this matchup is that Parsons will not play, having torn his ACL last week in Denver. How the Packers were going to adjust to Williams and his athleticism was already a storyline for this game. The Bears scored 18 points in the second half and were a mere 14 yards away from a touchdown that almost assuredly would have made the game come down to a two-point conversion.

Chicago was missing a big part of its passing game with receiver Rome Odunze out with a foot injury, and it does not appear as if he’ll be ready to play this week, with coach Ben Johnson suggesting all options are on the table.

While the Bears already have adjusted to playing without Odunze, this will be the first full game that defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley has had to navigate without Parsons.

Perhaps he can take some comfort in having built a defense throughout the offseason and training camp without Parsons, but it is a sizable gap to fill. Where does pressure come from? With the cornerbacks struggling last week, would the Packers be willing to leave them in more one-on-one situations by bringing more pressure?

The good news for Green Bay is it did not get much pressure on Williams the first time around thanks to Chicago’s game plan. The reason it won the matchup was a result of divine intervention, with Keisean Nixon making a game-saving interception in the end zone in front of Cole Kmet.

Week 16 Advantage: Bears

Bears Rush Offense vs. Packers Run Defense

Week 14 Advantage: Bears

Who Won: Packers

This matchup was truly a tale of two halves. The Packers’ defense held Chicago’s run game down for the first half before showing some cracks in the foundation during the second half.

One of the keys to the first matchup was that Chicago’s longest run was only 9 yards. The Bears thrive in their run game and are able to create explosive plays out of it. The Packers were able to hold that down.

hicago Bears running back Kyle Monangai (25) is tripped up be Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney, | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

This time around, the Bears will undoubtedly want to establish their ground game and the Packers will be missing some key pieces that they had active two weeks ago. Obviously, Parsons was a big piece of their run defense, but safety Evan Williams is one of their better run defenders, as well. The Packers tackled extremely well against Chicago, especially at the second and third levels of their defense.

“Things are always drawn up a certain way. You know each person in each gap, but the game of football is kind of imperfect in the run game at times,” Williams said after that game.

“Someone is going to skip a gap or a DL is peeking too long. Things can happen, so coming from the second level, it’s a lot of making guys right, and definitely a skill I feel like me and X [Xavier McKinney] both have, being able to come down, sift through the trash and make people right and go make plays.”

Whether the Packers have enough guys to make those plays this week will be something to watch. The injury list, as Matt LaFleur noted on Tuesday, is substantial. Williams is part of it, and a source at the start of the week thought Willliams would not play.

Week 16 Advantage: Bears

Bears Pass Defense vs. Packers Passing Offense

Week 14 Advantage: Packers

Who Won? Packers

Some of the matchups in the first meeting between these teams were close. You could make an argument that Chicago won the rushing battle against Green Bay’s defense. You could make an argument that Chicago’s passing game found something in the second half.

One phase of the game, however, was a win by total knockout.

Jordan Love shook off an interception on the first drive of the game and tormented Chicago’s secondary for the rest of the night. He threw three scoring strikes, all of which totaling more than 20 yards.

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Christian Watson (9) celebrates a touchdown against the Chicago Bears. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Christian Watson played a starring role, beating Kevin Byard and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson for touchdowns. The third was scored by reserve do-it-all man Bo Melton, who scored from 45 yards out.

Love sliced and diced whatever Dennis Allen threw his way, and Green Bay’s offensive line was prepared for any pressure packages that Allen sent.

Love was 9-of-12 against the blitz with all three of his touchdowns according to PFF.

His passer rating on the day was over 130.

The big difference this time around could be the health of Watson. He left Sunday’s game against Denver with a shoulder injury. A source told Packers on SI that there was a chance he could play on Saturday. Coach Matt LaFleur confirmed that stating that Watson was going to be given all the way up to game time to prove he was able to play and protect himself.

If he cannot go, perhaps there will be more opportunities for Matthew Golden, who barely played in the first matchup due to an injured wrist but caught three passes for 57 yards at Denver.

Week 16 Advantage: Packers

Bears Rush Defense vs. Green Bay’s Rush Offense

Week 14 Advantage: Packers

Who Won? Packers

The winner of this matchup essentially came down to two plays, and they were made by Josh Jacobs.

First was third-and-1 in the fourth quarter, when Jacobs took a pitch from Jordan Love and had no room in front of him. The play was blocked for a loss of 2 yards. Jacobs ran through space that looked like it did not exist and turned that play into a 21-yard gain to put the Packers deep into Chicago territory.

Josh Jacobs (8) runs through a tackle by Bears linebacker D'Marco Jackson (48) and defensive tackle Gervon Dexter Sr. | Tork Mason / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Three plays later, the Packers faced a third-and-goal from the 2. A field goal would have made things significantly easier for Chicago to tie the game, or potentially win it in regulation. Instead, Jacobs, who is known for his nose for the goal line in the red zone, plowed into the end zone for a touchdown that ultimately won the game.

The final numbers were not gaudy. Jacobs gained 86 yards on 20 carries, but he earned every yard the hard way. Chicago’s run defense is still a big question mark, and the Packers should be able to find gaps in their defense, even with the possible return of linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.

Week 16 Advantage: Packers

Special Teams

Week 14 Advantage: Bears

Who Won? Packers

Devin Duvernay is one of the premier return men in football. The Packers kept him quiet in the first game, thanks in large part to Ty’Ron Hopper and Arron Mosby. Both were menacing in kickoff coverage.

Green Bay Packers linebacker Kristian Welch (54) and safety Evan Williams (33) tackle Chicago Bears returner Devin Duvernay. | Wm. Glasheen/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Green Bay made some of its usual mistakes with a block in the back on Bo Melton and holding on Matt Orzech costing them yards, but the key against Chicago was to keep Duvernay from wrecking the game. Duvernay averaged 23.0 yards on three kickoff returns and had one punt return for 6 yards.

Last season, Chicago scored a touchdown on a trick play on a punt return that gave it a lead in the season finale at Lambeau Field. Green Bay’s performance should have washed that all away.

Week 16 Advantage: Bears

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