Three Reasons Why Packers Will Lose to Lions Today

The Detroit Lions have won three consecutive games at Lambeau Field. Here’s why they will beat the Green Bay Packers once again to get a quick start in the NFC North.

Detroit Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs (26) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Packers last season. | Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Death, taxes and the Green Bay Packers beating the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field used to be the three certainties in life.

Not anymore.

From 1992 through 2014, the Packers won every game against the Lions that was played in Wisconsin. Entering Sunday’s season-opening showdown, the Lions have won three in a row at Lambeau. Here’s why the Packers will lose again to Detroit on Sunday.

1. Run Defense or Defenseless?

Last season, Detroit went 8-0 on the road. The formula was simple. Detroit came off the bus running the football. The Lions ran the ball 47.7 percent of the time last season, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, but 52.2 percent on the road.

With David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the Lions have a premier duo to lead the charge. The physical Montgomery might have had a second consecutive 1,000-yard season had he not missed the final three games due to injury. He averaged a career-best 3.12 yards after contact last season.

While Montgomery delivers the body blows, Gibbs delivers the knockout. Even while starting only four games, the explosive Gibbs finished fifth in the NFL with 1,412 rushing yards and tied for first with 16 rushing touchdowns. He ranked third in yards per carry, fifth in forced missed tackles, third in 10-yard runs and first in 15-yard runs.

They’re the thunder-and-lightning tandem the Packers wished they had with Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd. While Detroit has a new offensive coordinator, with John Morton replacing new Bears coach Ben Johnson, the head coach remains the same.

Dan Campbell is a tough-guy coach who likes to play tough-guy football. He’s not stupid. The Packers just traded their best run-stopping defensive tackle, Kenny Clark, to acquire one of the elite pass rushers in the NFL, Micah Parsons. Their previous best run-stopping defensive tackle, TJ Slaton, will be in Cleveland starting for the Bengals on Sunday.

All five of Green Bay’s defensive tackles have combined to start six games in the NFL. Their best player at the position, Devonte Wyatt, was drafted in the first round in 2022 to rush the passer. The other projected starter, Colby Wooden, was a healthy inactive to start last season. The depth chart is rounded out by two rookies, sixth-round pick Warren Brinson and undrafted rookie Nazir Stackhouse.

You almost have to assume the Lions will want to run the ball right up the middle early and often.

“That’s up to what they want to do,” defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley said. “Teams want to run the ball up the middle, we got pretty good linebackers, and I think we have a good interior.”

He’s right about the linebackers. Edgerrin Cooper, Quay Walker and Isaiah McDuffie are a top trio.

“They’re going to strike guys, play on the other side of the line of scrimmage,” Walker said of the defensive line, which includes former Georgia teammates Wyatt, Brinson and Stackhouse. “I’ve got a ton of faith in them that they’re going to do their job and that’s going to be that. I’ve got a lot of faith in all those guys, there’s a reason they’re in the league, too.

“Don’t get me wrong. Kenny Clark is 1 of 1. We’re definitely going to miss him. I’m going to miss him from a vocal standpoint, leadership, him being on and off the field, his presence, but those guys are going to do a great job, too, and I’ve got full belief in them.”

2. Jared Goff’s Big Plays

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) hands off the ball to running back David Montgomery at Lambeau last season. | Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The potential vulnerability of Green Bay’s run defense leads into this one, which is the big-play efficiency of Lions quarterback Jared Goff.

According to PFF, Goff was No. 1 in play-action dropbacks last season. He excelled in that role, ranking second in completion percentage (74.6), first in yards (2,076), tied for second in touchdowns (15) and fourth in yards per attempt (10.1).

“If you give him a sliver of light, he’s going to make you pay,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think he is so decisive as a quarterback. I think he does a great job reading with his feet. He can anticipate. He can make every throw out there. He’s got a lot of trust and confidence in his playmakers, and he’s got a lot of playmakers around him.

“I think he’s played at a really high level, really the course of his career, but especially these last couple of years, I think it’s been elite.”

Goff has three elite targets with receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, receiver Jameson Williams and tight end Sam LaPorta.

St. Brown, who is coming off his third consecutive season of at least 105 catches (115) for 1,150 yards (1,263), needs 81 catches to set the NFL record for the most receptions by a player in his first five seasons. He dominates from the slot but isn’t just a slot receiver. Goff was 12-of-13 passing to St. Brown in last year’s matchups.

Williams, who will arrive in Green Bay with a much heavier wallet after signing a contract extension on Saturday, caught 58 passes for 1,001 yards and seven touchdowns last season. He led the NFL in 50-yard catches (five) and was second in yards per catch (17.3).

LaPorta, who was second-team All-Pro as a rookie in 2023, caught 60 passes for 726 yards and seven touchdowns last season.

If the Packers struggle to stop the run, it’s going to be difficult to unleash the Micah Parsons-led pass rush, protect Green Bay’s vulnerable cornerbacks and deal with their play-action game.

3. Jordan Love’s Mistakes

Detroit Lions safety Kerby Joseph (31) intercepts a pass thrown by Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love last season. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Packers will go as far as Jordan Love can take them this season. The starting point will be eliminating the big blunders, like the killer pick-six just before halftime of last year’s game against the Lions at Lambeau Field.

Love has not played well against the Lions, going 1-3 in four starts. He was exceptional in the win at Ford Field in 2023, part of his sensational second half to that season. However, at Lambeau Field in 2023, he completed 23-of-36 passes (a solid 63.9 percent) but with one touchdown and two interceptions and a 69.9 rating. Last year at Lambeau, he was 22-of-39 (59.0 percent) for 273 yards with zero touchdowns, one interception and a 69.7 rating.

With Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions are going to create pressure. How will Love, who was limited in training camp and even this week with his injured left thumb, handle it? When pressured last season, he completed only 47.8 percent of his passes with five interceptions. Detroit might have the best safeties in the NFL, with Kerby Joseph intercepting an NFL-high nine interceptions last year and Brian Branch adding four.

“It definitely sits with you,” Love said of getting swept by the Lions last year. “Not even going against the Lions but just our performance against every team in the NFC North wasn’t good enough, wasn’t up to our standards. That’s definitely something that’s lingered with us throughout the offseason.

“It’s always a point that we focus on is trying to go out there and win the NFC North. It starts with that. So, we’ve definitely got a good test coming here Week 1, be able to get us started on the right foot. We’ll be ready for them, and it just comes down to going out there, executing and playing our best game.”

For the other side of the coin, the addition of Micah Parsons is one of three reasons why the #Packers will start this season with an enormous victory.https://t.co/BOGTuNn48j

— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) September 7, 2025