Updated NFC Playoff Standings Show What’s at Stake for Packers-Eagles

GREEN BAY, Wis. – Before Week 9, the Green Bay Packers were in first place in the NFC playoff standings. On Monday night, if the Packers lose to the Philadelphia Eagles in the final game of Week 10, they’ll fall out of the playoffs altogether.

Here are the latest NFC playoff standings after Sunday’s games.

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Seattle Seahawks (first place, NFC West): 7-2

2. Philadelphia Eagles (first place, NFC East): 6-2

3. Green Bay Packers (first place, NFC North): 5-2-1

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (first place, NFC South): 6-3

5. Los Angeles Rams (second place, NFC West): 7-2

6. Detroit Lions (second place, NFC North): 6-3

7. Chicago Bears (third place, NFC North): 6-3

- - -

8. San Francisco 49ers (third place, NFC West): 6-4

9. Carolina Panthers (second place, NFC South): 5-5

10. Minnesota Vikings (fourth place, NFC North): 4-5

11. Dallas Cowboys (third place, NFC East): 3-5-1

12. Arizona Cardinals (fourth place, NFC West): 3-6

13. Atlanta Falcons (third place, NFC South): 3-6

14. Washington Commanders (third place, NFC East): 3-7

15. New Orleans Saints (fourth place, NFC South): 2-8

16. New York Giants (fourth place, NFC East): 2-8

Here’s What’s at Stake

Week 10 began with the Eagles in first place in the NFC, followed by the Buccaneers, Seahawks and Packers. With the Buccaneers losing at home to the Patriots and the Seahawks demolishing the Cardinals, the NFC’s top four headed into Monday night are Seattle, Philadelphia, Green Bay and Tampa Bay.

If the Packers beat the Eagles – they are 1.5-point favorites with a 68.8 percent chance of winning – Seattle will be No. 1 and Green Bay will be No. 2. If the Packers lose to the Eagles, they’ll fall from first place to third place in the NFC North and all the way to eighth place in the NFC.

So, yeah, this will be a huge game.

“Just another challenge,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “They got a good team, but it’s not the first good team that we played all year. We’re really getting ourselves prepared for this game. We played them twice last year and lost to them twice.

“So, we trying to get our get-back, but it’s not going to be easy. We know that they’re not just going to lay down and give us a win, but I can say that for any team. It’s going to be a fun, fun, exciting game on Monday.”

The Eagles have won back-to-back games, are coming off their bye and are mostly healthy. The Packers are not healthy, especially at receiver and tight end. Plus, they are coming off a bad loss to the Panthers, a verdict that looks a hundred times worse after Carolina returned home and was shocked by the Saints.

“Every week, can you play up to your level, and can you do it consistently?” coach Matt LaFleur said on Saturday. “Consistency is the greatest measurement of performance. Any team can go out there and do it one time, but can you put repeat performances out there?

“Unfortunately, for us, I don’t think we’ve done that. The other thing that I don’t think we’ve done a great job of is just playing a complete game in all three phases. There’s been moments of really good stuff, and then there’s been some moments of really bad stuff. [The Eagles] are a really good football team in all three phases. It’s a great challenge for us. Hopefully, we can go out there and play our best ball.”

If they don’t, the Packers will be on the outside looking in at the playoff race.

Complicating matters is the remaining strength of schedule.

Strength of Schedule

According to Tankathon, pending the results from Monday night, the Bears have the most difficult remaining strength of schedule, with their final eight opponents having a combined winning percentage of .580.

The Packers have the fifth-toughest remaining slate of games. Including the six-win Eagles, the Packers’ remaining strength of schedule is .561. Detroit is sixth at .557, the Rams are seventh at .548 and the Seahawks are eighth at .547.

The second half of the season will deliver a reality check. Green Bay’s strength of schedule from its first eight games is just .418. Of the nine NFC teams with at least five wins, only the Bears (.351) have faced an easier schedule. Chicago’s six wins have come against teams with a combined .272 winning percentage.

Packers Playoff Chances

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Packers had an 80.9 percent chance of making the playoffs before Sunday. Now it’s 81.0 percent. Even though Detroit and Chicago won on Sunday, Green Bay’s NFC North title chances went from 50.8 percent to 51.4 percent.

Still, those numbers are down sharply compared to before last week’s loss to Carolina, when FPI had the Packers with a 93.5 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason and a 57.6 percent chance of winning the division.

According to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, which debuted this week, the Packers have an 88 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, including 41 percent to win the NFC North and 11 percent to earn the No. 1 seed. Before Sunday, it was 87 percent to qualify for the playoffs, 45 percent to win the North and 12 percent to earn homefield.

According to Playoff Status, Green Bay’s playoff chances went from 85 percent to 66 percent because of its loss to Carolina. After Sunday, that inched up to 70 percent.

At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Packers were an overwhelming -2000 to reach the playoffs before losing to Carolina. By implied probability, that meant a 95.2 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. After last week’s debacle, that fell to -480, or an implied probability of 82.8 percent. Now, Green Bay is -550., or an implied probability of 84.6 percent.

The Lions, who destroyed the Commanders, are the slightest of favorites to win the North at FanDuel Sportsbook +110. Green Bay is +115. Chicago, even with its 6-3 record, is +850.

SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE DAILY PACKERS NEWSLETTER

NFC Playoff Standings

Here’s What’s at Stake

Strength of Schedule

Packers Playoff Chances

More Green Bay Packers News