Carolina Panthers Could Win NFC South with Few Wins Again in 2026

The NFC South could be be too competitive for any team to eclipse 10 wins

Dec 29, 2024; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles and Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales greet after the game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images | Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

The NFC South is widely regarded as one of, if not the, worst, divisions in the NFL. The Carolina Panthers won the division in 2025 with a pedestrian 8-9 record, the worst record for a division winner last season.

Entering 2026, the NFC South feels wide open, not because every team is elite, but because every team seems to be the same caliber. The Buccaneers had a hold on this division for years before 2025, but now that gap is closed, and each of the other teams in the division can beat the others on any given Sunday now.

NFL Analyst Sees NFC South Winner Finishing With Less Than 10 Wins

Nov 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jalen Coker (18) celebrates a two point conversion in the fourth quarter against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

CBS Sports' Zachary Pereles released his "2026 NFL schedule reality or overreaction" article on Friday morning, and looks at the NFC South winner winning less than 10 games as reality and sees the division repeating its recent history in terms of win totals at the top.

Pereles highlighted that the NFC South champion hasn't won 10 or more games in four years now, the last time being when Tom Brady was still the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since then, it's been eight and nine-win NFC South winners, and Pereles isn't wrong to feel like that trend will continue.

Why the NFC South Champion Wont Win 10 Games

Dec 14, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) reacts during the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images | Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

The Panthers and Bucs split their season series last year; the Saints swept the Panthers; and the Panthers swept the Falcons. Carolina easily had the best offseason in the division, but the rest of the division had major changes as well.

The New Orleans Saints are entering 2026 with a reloaded offense, adding RB Travis Ettienne in free agency, and adding their WR1 of the future in Jordyn Tyson, and QB Tyler Shough is entering his second year after closing 2025 in great fashion and giving Saints fans something to be hopeful for.

The Bucs are going to look much different in 2026, having lost their franchise cornerstone, WR Mike Evans, who's now a San Francisco 49er, but did make a key defensive addition in edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr., who was the best pass rusher in College Football in 2025.

The Falcons will likely have a new starting QB, Tua Tagoviloa, who was released from Miami and looks to get a fresh start in Atlanta. Each team in the NFC South has seen a major makeover, but the Panthers should still be poised to win the division.

Carolina Can Win the Division at 9-8

Jan 10, 2026; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) looks to pass as guard Damien Lewis (68) and offensive tackle Yosh Nijman (77) block in the third quarter in an NFC Wild Card Round game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Panthers' schedule is going to be tough for sure, one of the toughest schedules in the NFL, but there's a very real possibility that the Panthers have the best defense in the division, adding Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd in free agency, and adding some young depth in the NFL Draft, like nose tackle Lee Hunter and safety Zakee Wheatley.

The Panthers and the Saints are the two teams in the division who seem to be trending up the most, but the Panthers have shown they can shine in big moments, and compete with the league's best, as they beat the LA Rams in the regular season, and were one Matthew Stafford two-minute drill away from beating them again in the NFC Wild Card round.

Carolina may not win 11 games this season, but the reality is they probably won't need to, as the NFC South will be, at times, a chaotic, messy division where teams beat each other up throughout their schedules.