Carolina Panthers' playoff chances revealed after whirlwind Week 17

Every single NFL playoff spot is already locked except for two: the NFC South winner and the AFC North champion. Fittingly, Week 18 of the NFL season sees the four remaining teams in those two divisions face off.

Essentially, the winner will get in in both contests, except that the Carolina Panthers can lose and still have a small shot at getting into the postseason. That, and perhaps the fact that they seem to be a better team than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, seems like good news.

And according to The Athletic's playoff predictor, it is. It's wonderful news, in fact.

The Athletic playoff predictor gives Panthers great shot at postseason

Dec 28, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) reacts after scoring a ten-yard rushing touchdown against the Seattle Seahawks during the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

At this point, there's very little advantage to not making the playoffs. The Panthers would slightly move up in draft order and get a second-place schedule next season, but that's not all that consequential.

It's much more valuable to have the team win its must-win game and actually play a playoff game. The young players and the second-year coach need that for the team's continued development.

Fortunately, because of a variety of reasons, the Panthers are overwhelmingly favored to make the playoffs per The Athletic. Their prediction model gives them a 78% chance at winning the NFC South. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit at 22%.

It's not as simple as the Panthers having a 78% chance to win this weekend. In fact, they're underdogs. It's that they're not underdogs by a lot, they tend to thrive as underdogs, and even if they lose, the favored Atlanta Falcons winning would render a loss moot.

The Panthers have multiple avenues in. The Buccaneers do not. The Panthers are in the driver's seat here. The Buccaneers are not.

The NFL.com playoff picture shares a similar portrait of the situation. The Panthers have a 72% chance of making it in, leaving the Bucs with a 28% hope. Overwhelmingly, the chances tend to favor the Panthers.

That's good, but it means nothing. The Panthers don't typically perform when expected to. This is a huge game, and historically, those have been unkind to the Panthers. Even this year, they're arguably 1-3 in the biggest games in terms of the standings.

Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver Jalen Coker (18) celebrates with wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) after a play during the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

That one win? Against the Buccaneers, which might bode well for this weekend. Either way, the Panthers have the chance. If they can't take it, that would bring an embarrassing end to what has been quite the season.

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