Odds for crucial NFC South matchup that can help Carolina Panthers win division

If the Falcons win next week, the Panthers are guaranteed the NFC South division.

Nov 23, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Atlanta Falcons linebacker Divine Deablo (0) breaks up the pass to New Orleans Saints running back Devin Neal (24) during the second half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images | Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

The Carolina Panthers are 8-8. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 7-9. The Atlanta Falcons, after a stunning win over the Los Angeles Rams, are also 7-9. It's very muddy in the NFC South right now.

The Panthers and Buccaneers are the only ones that can win it. Even if it ends in a three-way tie, there is not a single tiebreaker that tilts in Atlanta's favor. This makes Week 18 in Tampa, a matchup between the Panthers and Bucs, a win-and-in game. Sort of.

If the Panthers win on Saturday, they're in. If they lose, then the result of the Falcons' game against the New Orleans Saints is important. Here are the odds for that one.

Falcons favored in game that would clinch division for Panthers

Nov 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Carolina Panthers tight end Tommy Tremble (82) runs with the ball in overtime against the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Falcons can't make the playoffs, but they can decide who does. If the Panthers win on Saturday, which will happen about 24 hours before the Falcons and Saints take the field, then it's all moot.

But if the Panthers lose, then it comes down to the Falcons. Should they win, the 8-9 Panthers will get in. Should they lose, the 8-9 Bucs would get in. They'd never do it, but they could decide they dislike the Panthers more and lose on purpose in that scenario.

Fortunately for the Panthers, the odds suggest that the Falcons will win. Per DraftKings, Atlanta is -162 on the moneyline. The Saints are +136 to win outright. The Falcons are -3 in the spread, and they're -110 to cover. The Saints are also -110 to cover.

The over/under is 43.5, and both the over and under are -110. These odds are remarkably similar to what the Panthers and Buccaneers have going right now. The Falcons are favored, but the Panthers are not, which would still be fine.

The Panthers would certainly prefer to take care of business on Saturday. They'd also prefer to lock in a winning season and get in at 9-8 rather than 8-9. However, if they're unable to sweep the Bucs in Tampa Bay (or get a tie), then they do still have a lifeline.

That would make for a highly stressful 24 hours, but it's a lifeline nonetheless. If the Panthers cannot pull it off, all eyes will shift to the other two NFC South teams, both of whom are red hot right now. The Falcons have now won three in a row, and the Saints are on a four-game winning streak.

The Saints beat both the Bucs and Panthers in that streak, and the Falcons beat the Bucs, so they've both had a huge hand in how the South will be won, and they'll continue to potentially play a role until the very end.

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