Projecting Patriots' Win-Loss Record for 2020 Season
The NFL's schedule release came out Thursday, and it was not kind to the New England Patriots. In fact, in an article determining the Patriots' toughest games of the year, I found that all but maybe two or three games were going to be real tough tests for this year's New England squad.
Now that we have determined which games are the toughest, have the schedule in front of us, and rosters are for the most part solidified, we can now predict how many games New England should expect to win this season.
Let's run down the schedule and come to a conclusion on which games they win and which games they lose.
Week 1: vs. MIA (Sunday, Sept. 13 @ 1 p.m. ET)
This game should be a tough one for both teams in my opinion. Both have a lot of new faces and will be leaning heavily on some younger players and rookies who will be operating on shortened offseasons due to COVID-19. While I could see either team winning in what might be a slugfest, I give Miami the edge in this one. With Jarrett Stidham facing a very talented secondary in his first career start, the passing game might struggle out of the gate, which will cause a 0-1 start to the regular season for the Patriots.
Verdict: L
Week 2: @ SEA (Monday, Sept. 20 @ 8:20 p.m. ET)
With growing pains still lingering, expecting New England to go into Seattle and beat an MVP-caliber quarterback under the lights is asking a lot. The stage might be too bright for the youngsters on the squad. Some real serious preparation would be needed to pull off a Monday night upset, which may be too much to ask.
Verdict: L
Week 3: vs. LV (Sunday, Sept. 27 @ 1 p.m. ET)
After an underwhelming 0-2 start to the season, this will be a nice change of pace as the Las Vegas Raiders have a lot of holes that New England can expose. This game is the one that we will see Stidham and his receivers start to gel and work well together. A lot of optimism will come out of this game for New England.
Verdict: W
Week 4: @ KC (Sunday, Oct. 4 @ 4:25 p.m. ET)
This game is not so much about how well New England plays, it's more about how well the Kansas City Chiefs play. While the Patriots are a solid team on both sides of the ball, there is no real reason to believe that they have the firepower to go into Kansas City and beat the defending champions.
Verdict: L
Week 5: vs. DEN (Sunday Oct. 11 @ 1 p.m. ET)
Through the first quarter of the season, New England comes into this game 1-4 and hungry for another win against a solid team in the Denver Broncos. The secondary will have to show up in this one and shut down the string of weapons Denver added over the offseason. In a close one, New England gets the edge.
Verdict: W
Week 6: BYE
This will be a much needed bye week after a few dog fights early on in the season. This will really allow things to calm down and reset after a 2-4 start.
Week 7: vs. SF (Sunday, Oct. 25 @ 4:25 p.m. ET)
This will be a really tough test, however, the Patriots will be ready for it. Coming off a bye, playing a 4:25 contest with what is expected to be fall New England weather, the Patriots come into this game refreshed and relaxed. They play a quarterback they know very well and despite it being one of their tougher games of the season, they get the victory at home.
Verdict: W
Week 8: @ BUF (Sunday, Nov. 1 @ 1 p.m. ET)
This is ranked as the second most difficult game, only trailing the Kansas City game in the article referenced earlier. An away game in Buffalo spells bad news for New England as the Buffalo Bills have drastically improved this offseason. As a contender for not just the AFC East crown but also a bye week during the first week of the playoffs, the Bills show the Patriots who the team to beat is now in the division.
Verdict: L
Week 9: @ NYJ (Monday, Nov. 9 @ 8:15 p.m. ET)
Sam Darnold will look to get revenge after last season's Monday night football disaster where he was "seeing ghosts". While this should be a little tighter game this time around, this year's Patriots squad still shouldn't lose to the New York Jets this season.
Verdict: W
Week 10: vs. BAL (Sunday, Nov. 15 @ 8:20 p.m. ET)
Another tough game for New England here. It's just really hard to project the Patriots beating any of the three top teams in the AFC at this very moment. While I could see this one being closer than many think, forecasting this offense to put up points on the Baltimore Ravens' defense is very hard to see right now.
Verdict: L
Week 11: @ HOU (Sunday, Nov. 22 @ 1 p.m. ET)
Last season, New England traveled to Houston and looked dead for three quarters and failed to comeback in the fourth. This time around, the Houston Texans will be the one with the failed comeback bid.
Verdict: W
Week 12: vs. ARI (Sunday, Nov. 29 @ 1 p.m. ET)
This game will be another defining game of the 2020 season, as the Arizona Cardinals could win a good deal of games this year. This game will not be easy, as it could swing either way. However, the Patriots prevail in a tough one.
Verdict: W
Week 13: @ LAC (Sunday, Dec. 6 @ 4:25 p.m. ET)
New England has a two-game win streak going into this one and walk out of SoFi Stadium by extending that streak to three. The Los Angeles Chargers are loaded on defense, however, they have just as many question marks at quarterback as the Patriots do. In a low scoring affair, New England wins it.
Verdict: W
Week 14: @ LAR (Thursday, Dec. 10 @ 8:20 p.m. ET)
Stidham and company trot back into SoFi Stadium just five days later. Winning four of the last five and on a three-game win streak, they get up-ended by the Los Angeles Rams. There is only so much you can ask of a team who pulled out close wins the last few weeks, with three of them on the road. On only five days rest and playing another road game in Los Angeles is a tough ask. Rams beat a fatigued Patriot team.
Verdict: L
Week 15: @ MIA (Sunday, Dec. 20 @ 1 p.m. ET)
This is another toss-up. Both teams have grown and gotten better since their Week 1 meeting. With ten days of rest in between the Rams game and this one, New England heads into this one rested and prepared, while the Dolphins come off a presumedly rough one against the Chiefs. The Patriots - determined to split the series with Miami - take this one.
Verdict: W
Week 16: vs. BUF (Monday, Dec. 28 @ 8:15 p.m. ET)
Eight weeks does not change the fact that New England likely lacks the firepower to beat a team like the Bills. This game should be closer than the first one, with both teams likely having playoff implications on the line. However, Buffalo officially eliminates any possibility of the Patriots having a ten win season.
Week 17: vs. NYJ (Sunday, Jan. 3 @ 1 p.m. ET)
With a seventh seed potentially in the balance, New England will take out some anger from last week on the poor Jets. Hungry and with something to prove, they beat up on their divisional foe and give themselves one final chance to make the playoffs.
Final record: 9-7
Nine wins seems like a reasonable projection. Anywhere from six to ten wins seems like the floor and the ceiling, respectively. Expect a near .500 team out of this year's Patriots squad that will be trying to squeak into the playoffs in the final weeks of the regular season. At 9-7 and with the new expanded playoff rules coming into effect, that record could be good enough to clinch a seventh seed in the playoffs. A seventh seed for Bill Belichick - the season after losing his Hall of Fame quarterback - would be a spectacular feat.
