Predicting Patriots' Rookie Offensive Trio's 2024 Stat Line

How will Drake Maye, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Javon Baker fare across next season?

Jun 10, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) throws a pass at minicamp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

It's a new era in New England Patriots football, and this year's rookies have an opportunity to burst onto the scene for the 2024 NFL season, especially on the offensive side of the ball.

The Patriots made some major improvements on offense during their most recent draft, headlined by selecting QB Drake Maye alongside WRs Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker. It's a breath of fresh air for a New England unit that consistently struggled to put up points in 2023 and can now flip the page to a fresh era for the season ahead.

As we get closer to the Patriots' 2024 campaign, it makes for a good time to put up some predictions for how this rookie class will handle the upcoming season. National expectations are looking quite low for this team, but with a solid performance from these first-year players, New England can put the NFL on notice.

With that, here's some projections for how the Patriots' offensive rookie trio will perform in their first year pro:

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Drake Maye

Jun 12, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) and quarterback Jacob y Brissett (14) throw passes at minicamp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The big question that revolves around predicting Maye's rookie season is pinning at what point he'll end up getting the nod to start. Jacoby Brissett has currently netted himself QB1 status through mandatory mini-camps, but with the right strides through training camp and pre-season, New England's rookie has a chance to be under center in week one.

However, it feels like this time around, the Patriots may retain a more conservative approach to playing their first-year QB, and could wait at some point during the season to impliment him into the lineup.

We may see the coaching staff hold him out all the way until after their Week 14 bye, or even for the course of the entire regular season, but I think that New England's return from London-- Week 8 at home vs. the New York Jets-- is a solid spot to throw a dart at for his debut.

As for the counting stats, seeing similar stats to rookie Baker Mayfield (and maybe a bit better), may be a worthwhile comparison. Mayfield dealt with some up-and-down accuracy and comparable roster holes and question marks throughout hisfirst-year, but still posted a runner-up campaign for Rookie of the Year.

Maye can easily fall into that same boat for year one and has all of the tools to follow through on a much better career trajectory than the former Cleveland Browns signal caller.

Prediction: 10 GP, 2760 passing yards, 23 TDs, 11 INTs, 64.1 Cmp%

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Ja'Lynn Polk

Jun 10, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk (1) heads to the practice field at minicamp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

After a year of turbulence in the Patriots' wide receiver room, the second-round selection of Ja'Lynn Polk should offer a much-needed boost in production for next season. However, it's a bit foggy to project how involved Polk is in the offense early on based on the current state of New England's pass catchers.

The Patriots' receiver room has a ton of mouths to feed, including Kendrick Bourne, Pop Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and many other options down the roster that have a puncher's chance to have a significant role in the offense-- not to mention New England's fourth-round WR Javon Baker. It's hard to see Polk come in as the undisputed WR1 from day one, but we'll likely see him become increasingly involved as the season progresses.

If the Washington product can jump in year one with over 40 receptions and 500 yards to hone into one of the top options in this Patriots offense, you could look at his rookie campaign as a significant success, but it remains to be seen if he'll secure that opportunity so quickly.

By building early chemistry with Drake Maye, he could get some increased targets his way, but that may take some time to watch that come to form.

Prediction: 14 GP, 44 receptions, 535 yards, 4 TDs

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Javon Baker

May 11, 2024; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Javon Baker (6) walks to the practice field at the New England Patriots rookie camp at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

With the selection of Javon Baker in the fourth-round, the Patriots gave themselves two chances to hit on some new weapons for Drake Maye to grow with. The UCF pass catcher, along with Polk, has started to make an early connection with New England's rookie QB throughout OTAs and mini-camp and stands out as a name to look out for on this offense for next season.

The issue when projecting Baker's rookie campaign comes down to a similar situation that Baker faces, and that's how deep the Patriots' wide receiver group is. Depending on how the 53-man shakes out, Baker could end up as the 5th or 6th option on the depth chart, which limits how many initial snaps he'll see.

Of course, Baker could make his way up the ranks with the proper pre-season performance, but with another young rookie like Polk to feed and develop as well, it puts the UCF receiver in an odd position. The Patriots could take a younger approach and opt to give significant PT to their rookies from day one, but the expectation should be for New England to try and put out the most NFL-ready product to win football games.

Baker was a home-run pickup for New England, but it could take a year or two for him to totally mesh into this system. Becoming a week one starter would be a steep hill for the rookie to climb, yet look for the 22-year-old to get some increased looks deeper into the season.

Prediction: 4 GP, 17 receptions, 204 yards, 2 TDs

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