Patriots On SI Staff Predicts Divisional Round Game vs. Texans

The New England Patriots have a shot to reach the AFC Championship game with a matchup against the Houston Texans who boasts the league's No. 1 defense.

With the game coming close, some members of the New England Patriots On SI staff spoke about their thoughts on the game ahead and what to expect.

Ethan Hurwitz

The Patriots and Texans defenses will carry this game. You think the 16-3 score in the wild card was low scoring? There's a shot this week could be even lower. CJ Stroud doesn't inspire hope to win this game and lead his team into the AFC title game, especially after his five fumbles on Monday.

For Maye, he will have his work cut out for him against arguably the best unit in the NFL. In the postseason, it's important to rely on the quarterbacks you trust more. Even though he's one game into his playoff career, Maye boasts more of a credible resume to win.

Prediction: Patriots 17, Texans 10

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud throws during the first half of an AFC Wild Card Round. | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Jeremy Brener

The Patriots are the favorites going into the game against the Texans and rightfully so. They have the league's best record and are clearly one of the best teams in the league this season. However, they are facing a buzz saw known as the Texans defense. They put up two touchdowns by themselves in the fourth quarter in their wild card round win against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Patriots defense also played very well against the Los Angeles Chargers, suggesting that this game could be the first to 17 points.

The Patriots defense is sound, but they are not forcing turnovers like this Texans defense can. It will be intriguing to see how Drake Maye responds to the adversity he will face. The fact that he's at home helps, but he hasn't seen a defense like this before.

Prediction: Texans 17, Patriots 13

Mike D'Abate

While the cliche of “best team we’ve faced all season” tends to be overused in professional sports, it applies for the Patriots in relation to the Texans. New England will be given all they can handle in all three of the game’s phases. If the Patriots are unable to marginally disrupt Houston’s ability to control the line of scrimmage, it will be a long afternoon and evening for the home team in Foxborough.

Still, one should expect the Pats to adopt a similar strategy to what they used against the Chargers last week. Offensively, quarterback Drake Maye and company will need to make just enough plays against one of the NFL's best defenses.

To find any semblance of success against them, the Pats’ newly-minted All Pro quarterback must rid himself of the ball early — by either making the throw before the three-step, or by scrambling. Should New England find success in holding the line, expect Maye and company to test the Texans’ secondary with a deep passing attack. On defense, New England must seize its chances to hold the Texans offense in check.

Look for the Pats to send extra rushers from all three levels of the defense at Texans’ quarterback C.J. Stroud. Should they find a way to even their distribution of aggression this week against the Texans, the Pats’ additional rushers from the second and third levels could tilt the game in the Patriots favor.If they can do that, they will punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game for the first time since 2019.

Prediction: Patriots 23, Texans 20

Arnav Sharma

Obviously the focus of this game is on the defenses. As much as I want to pretend otherwise, this Texans defense is genuinely reminiscent of the 2015 Broncos. This is not an exaggeration.

With a 4-2-5 defense that dominates with two elite edge defenders, speedy end-to-end linebacker play, and a versatile secondary with three elite corners, there are very few weaknesses in this defense. In my film study, there are three primary areas where I feel like the Patriots might be able to find an edge offensively: A/B gap runs, design QB runs, and deep balls on both cornerbacks, Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter.

Though the Chargers were able to consistently find pressure last week against Drake Maye, he was also able to buy time outside the pocket and scramble when needed. However, against a Texans defense that is able to generate the same (if not more) pressure just rushing four linemen, finding reliable scrambling yards will be difficult — especially against a speedy linebacking corps like Houston's. However, with the Texans defense thriving against stationary quarterbacks, the potential for design QB runs opens the offense's ability to find numbers matchups against the linebacking corps, possibly evening the speed mismatch.

In the passing game, both Lassiter and Stingley have been elite; yet, both have shown the potential to give up explosive plays. Kayshon Boutte, Stefon Diggs, and DeMario Douglas have all proven capable of generating shot play potential, especially outside. Given this, as long as the Patriots offensive line is able to buy Maye enough time for routes to develop, the best deep passing quarterback in the league should have at least a couple legitimate opportunities to hit home runs. If these plays convert, New England will move on to the AFC Championship. If not, this will be a slow grinding game that will end with the first touchdown. This decisive point being a genuine tossup means this game could range anywhere from a close Texans win to a Patriots blowout; being superstitious, I submit the former as my formal prediction.

Of all the quarterbacks in the league, Maye (and maybe Josh Allen) is the exact and possibly only archetype that can reliably contest this red-hot Texans defense — a quick mobile quarterback who can produce from the pocket or outside structure while constantly imposing a deep ball threat. If Maye can't stop this defense, there is a real chance that Houston will be celebrating its first ever Lombardi trophy in a month.

Prediction: Texans 13, Patriots 7

Make sure you bookmark New England Patriots on SI for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns, and so much more!