Way Too Early Patriots vs. Broncos Predictions

When the news came out that Bo Nix broke his ankle, it became crystal clear that this was the New England Patriots' AFC to lose.

Thankfully, they took care of business in a turnover-filled game with the Houston Texans. New England extended their winning streak to five games as they're set to put their undefeated road record to the test.

There's nothing quite like playing in elevation, especially with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line. Denver is no joke, but they're going to look a heck of a lot different with Jarrett Stidham as their starting quarterback.

ESPN Analytics immediately gave the Patriots a 58.7% chance to win this game, even though they're set to play in Denver. Ultimately, their strong road record left everyone with no doubts as they also opened as 5.5-point favorites.

Patriots Defense Decides The Game

Let's go get another one. pic.twitter.com/M0PlZYyEJE
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 19, 2026

No matter how you put it, this game will be in the hands of Mike Vrabel's defense. The now longest tenured head coach in the AFC East is set to face a 29-year-old quarterback who's played in just 20 career NFL games.

Stidham is 117-for-197 with 1,422 yards, eight touchdowns and eight interceptions in his career. He also has 37 carries for 101 yards, with 84 of those coming in 2022. While he hasn't run the ball much recently, the Patriots know Denver's run game is going to decide the outcome.

Dec 7, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Jarrett Stidham (8) warms up prior to a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images | Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

As long as New England stands their ground, they should have no issue taking care of business. This one could get ugly, fast, but it's all up to the Patriots' defense to not let the moment get too big. At the same time, they can't underestimate Stidham, who's been in this Broncos system for three years now.

Patriots Offensive Turnovers

We have liftoff 🚀 pic.twitter.com/sjsqtZT6y7
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) January 19, 2026

The Houston Texans' defense was no joke, but there's no excuse for how many times the Patriots turned the ball over in that game. Maye ended up fumbling the ball more times than he can remember, and that goes along with his interception.

Seeing as the Broncos had a bye, the only game they've played was the one that put Sean McDermott out of a job. Denver survived, 33-30, in overtime, no less. Allowing 30 points is a huge indicator that this defense, as good as it is, may not be prepared for what's about to come.

Either way, this game is in the Patriots' hands. They know what they're getting against this Broncos defense, and having just played the Texans, it's the perfect tune-up game for their final chance to punch their ticket to the Super Bowl.

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