How to Win the NFL Draft

In just a few days, the 2025 NFL Draft will kick off in Green Bay, Wisconsin. There will be the usual slam-dunk moves, head-scratchers, and picks that will only look good in several seasons' time. Unfortunately, only hindsight is 20/20 when it comes to drafting.

Every year, 32 franchises look to minimize risk and set themselves on the path toward the Lombardi Trophy through the NFL Draft. A single draft won’t win a Super Bowl (though the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 1974 class puts that theory to the test), but stacking good drafts will.

Likewise, bad drafts can set franchises back—a lot faster, too.

It is no surprise that the best drafting teams typically end up in the postseason, but what does that look like roster-wise?

These 14 teams made the playoffs in 2024, alphabetically:

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills

Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions

Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans

Kansas City Chiefs

Los Angeles Chargers

Los Angeles Rams

Minnesota Vikings

Philadelphia Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Washington Commanders

A total of 355 players on offense and defense contributed to those 14 playoff teams. Look beyond trades and free agency. How did those 355 players enter the league? That tells you the story of draft value—and how to make the most of it.

Here is how the 355 offensive and defensive contributors of the 2024 playoff teams shaped out by position:

14 quarterbacks

14 running backs

42 wide receivers

14 tight ends

28 offensive tackles

42 interior offensive linemen

28 safeties

54 “defensive backs” (explained below)

42 off-the-ball linebackers

39 defensive interiors

38 edge rushers

Now, an aside on how I got to some of those numbers.

Gone are the days of the base 3-4 and 4-3 defenses. Just about everyone uses multiple; the number of linebackers, defensive interiors, standup rushers, and defensive backs vary on any given play.

Defenses are fluid where they were once rigid.

For example, defensive backs are a tough position to sort out when it comes to the modern game; a more microscopic look into cornerbacks, nickels, and safeties and where they fall into the defense, considering the way modern disguises are used, requires a fine-tooth comb.

It varied for each team based on prior knowledge, but I typically took the top four snap-getters listed as “cornerback” for the position. I imagine a good number of nickels fell in with the cornerbacks a few times, just as a few of the top snap-getters listed as “safeties” would probably be classified as nickel-type defensive backs.

To put it simply, the top five or six defensive backs were normally the ones considered.

Off-the-ball linebackers were equally tough. Outside of a handful of stalwart players of the highest caliber, the linebacker position has become very situational and down-based. You can thank the proliferation of the passing game for that (though traditional downhill backers might be making a comeback).

I usually went with the two or three off-ball ’backers that played the most snaps.

The top three snap-getters at defensive interior were considered for each team. (It varied, though, as the odd number suggests; defensive fronts might see the most change play-to-play).

Edge rushers are a whole other story. The “edge umbrella”, as I call it, holds many positions—the true defensive end (think Las Vegas Raiders’ Maxx Crosby, Cleveland Browns’ Myles Garrett), the standup rusher (Buffalo’s Von Miller, the current incarnation of Khalil Mack).

Then there is the 3-4 linebacker hybrid position that has been mastered by Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt.

Even then, it’s all so fluid! They all stand up at some point, some of them that are typically upright will put a hand in the dirt. But I digress—the fluidity of modern defenses.

For this research, quarterback was obviously the easiest position and I only considered the top running back (for a two-back team like Detroit, I went with Jahmyr Gibbs).

The top three wide receivers, the No. 1 tight end, and the five offensive line positions, apart from some jumbled interior position play, were obvious.

It should be noted that a team like Detroit, ravaged by injury on defense beyond the point of recognition, was considered based on how I knew a healthy team would look.

So, the draft pick data was based on a healthy Lions defense, as it tells the story of good drafting more accurately.

Who and Where

Again, for the research, free agents and trades do not matter. ‘How did these contributors get to the league?’ does.

Unless written otherwise, this data does not factor in home-grown players as opposed to those acquired to the 2024 teams via trade/free agency. That tells a different story.

This is a story of position value and who were, at the very least, enough of a hit to make an impact on a playoff-caliber team for the 2024 season.

Most importantly, it shows the value of draft picks and, potentially, how to win the NFL Draft.

Of the 355 players who were found to be contributors on offense and defense:

94 first-round picks

78 second-round picks

67 third-round picks

41 fourth-round picks

25 fifth-round picks

15 sixth-round picks

9 seventh-round picks

25 undrafted free agents

Positions have been valued differently as the game has evolved (in an oddly cyclical nature), and breaking down the 94 first-round players only proves what many already know about value:

12 of the 14 starting quarterbacks were first-round picks

16 of the 38 edge rushers were first-round picks

13 of the 28 offensive tackles were first-round picks

Those big gap-sound space-eaters on the interior of the defense, do-it-all tight ends, versatile offensive lineman in the interior, as well as the second and third levels of the defense?

Left to the wind.

8 of 39 interior defenders were first-round picks

1 of 14 tight ends were first-round picks

7 of 42 interior offensive linemen were first-round picks

7 of 42 off-the-ball linebackers were first-round picks

4 of 28 safeties were first-round picks

A Lesson in Need vs. Upside

Draftniks like to list the needs for each team.

Biggest Needs: OT, S, WR

However, when it comes down to it, position needs don’t trump upside—or so thinks one of the league’s best GMs.

At the start of the season in 2021, Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta was faced with a problem.

He had no running backs.

It began when J.K. Dobbins, the Ravens’ leading rusher in 2020 as a rookie, tore his ACL in a preseason game against the Washington Football Team. The loss was amplified when Justice Hill suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon tear just over a week before the season opener against the Las Vegas Raiders.

To say the running back room was hanging on by a thread would be an understatement. That thread broke when Gus Edwards, who led the team in carries in 2020, tore his ACL in practice three days before the Raiders.

What was once a healthy position group became one of dire need. DeCosta and the Ravens would scramble for running backs and eventually signed veteran Latavius Murray (who would start in six games that season) along with Devonta Freeman to carry the rock.

“Literally a Friday afternoon calling agents trying to find somebody to come to Baltimore,” Decosta told me at the NFL Combine. “And fortunately, we were able to get a couple of guys that came in and really saved us that year in many different ways.”

The debacle reaffirmed a valuable lesson to DeCosta: needs change day-to-day. So go ahead and focus on finding the talent possible in the draft while you’re at it.

“I mean, upside is ‘How good could this guy be?’, position need is like, ‘We need a player to play right away,’” said DeCosta. “In my opinion with positional need, it sounds great at the time you draft a player you pencil him in, but if he doesn’t have the goods to play at a high level then typically you’re going to be disappointed, fans are going to be disappointed, you’ll look at it as a bad pick. So, you want the best player in any given situation.”

The Ravens have typically drafted in the early-to-late 20s every draft since 2018 except for 2022, when they held the No. 14 pick.

Since DeCosta became general manager in 2019, the Ravens have used those picks to draft an All-Pro linebacker in Patrick Queen, now with the Steelers (who made the playoffs in 2024); wide receiver Rashod Bateman, a significant contributor (one of their three top receivers); All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton (with that No. 14 pick); and wide receiver Zay Flowers, currently their No. 1 pass catcher.

For what it’s worth—DeCosta’s first pick, wide receiver Marquise Brown out of Oklahoma, was a solid contributor who was flipped in the 2022 NFL Draft for a pick that would land the Ravens a Pro Bowl center in Tyler Linderbaum.

Sure, anyone should be able to draft well in the first round. Yet plenty of teams fail time and again by taking risks, staying rigid to position needs, or outsmarting themselves via a mixture of both.

DeCosta put it best.

“Need changes, but you win with talent. You win with players. … If I had had my choice, I’m always going with upside, always going with talent.”

The Draft Gospel According to Tony Dungy (Per Bill Polian)

Bill Polian is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, in part, for his ability to draft talent. His most successful tenures were as general manager of the Buffalo Bills from 1986 to 1992 and the Indianapolis Colts from 1997 to 2009.

As the architect of the Bills’ four-peat appearance in the Super Bowl, Polian drafted Hall of Fame players such as running back Thurman Thomas (second round), defensive end Bruce Smith, and wide receiver Andre Reed (fourth round).

With the Colts, Polian drafted Hall of Famers Peyton Manning (a slam-dunk, sure), Edgerrin James, and Dwight Freeney, along with notable non-first-round All-Pro players like Bob Sanders (second round) and Robert Mathis (fifth round); Polian’s work paid off when the Colts won Super Bowl XLI.

Conventional thinking is that finding success in the first round should be easy, but for every Manning, Smith, or James, there are a whole lot of picks like Ryan Leaf or Lawrence Phillips.

The best way out of drafting high in the first round? Hitting on first-round picks.

Before the 2024 NFL Draft, Polian spoke to On SI. He outlined the prototypical player that warranted a Top 10 selection—as told to him by head coach Super Bowl-winning coach and Colts colleague, Tony Dungy:

1. “A quarterback that can win.” Checks every box (with no compromises)—height, weight, speed, arm strength, and the ability to process the game.

2. “A guy that sacks the quarterback.”

3. “Someone who scores touchdowns.” Running backs and wide receivers.

4. “Someone who turns the ball over.” For the most part, this is defensive backs.

5. “A left tackle.” But Polian noted right tackles count because tackles are “so hard to come by.”

If none of those players are there?

“Trade out.”

Expanding the Top 10 prototype to the first round as a whole and using it within the context of how the 14 playoff teams drafted, it looks like Dungy was onto something (edge rushers were factored into sack the quarterback guys).

Of the 94 first round picks:

12 quarterbacks (13%)

16 edge rushers (17%)

15 running backs/wide receivers (16%)

15 defensive backs (16%)

13 tackles (14%)

The remaining positions of tight end, linebacker, defensive interiors, and interior offensive lineman made up 26% of the 94 first round picks.

The Best Ceiling Is a Good Floor!

Former NFL head coach Dan Reeves (who coached 23 seasons and amassed a 190-165-2 record) once appeared on a show about the league’s greatest draft “steals”, telling NFL Network, “[If] you’re going to be competitive in this league, it won’t just be with your first- and your second-round draft choices.”

Of the 14 teams that made the 2024 playoffs:

172 of 355 (48.5%) contributors were either first- or second-round picks

183 of 355 (51.5%) contributors were taken in the third round, lower, or undrafted

As pointed out before, where players were originally drafted mattered to the research. Not how they ended up on their 2024 playoff team. But for this next part, let me point out some examples of home-grown team-building Mr. Reeves would be proud of (so far).

Chiefs: Tershawn Wharton, DI, UDFA

Wharton is only the fourth player from FCS Missouri S&T to make it to the NFL. He has played 72 games (with 13 starts) across five seasons with the Chiefs and had just one season playing below 40% of the defensive snap count. His highest was 62% in 2024.

He has two Super Bowl rings.

Vikings: Ivan Pace, LB, UDFA

Through two seasons, Pace has played 62% and 59% of defensive snaps for the Vikings, respectively.

Detroit’s Jack Campbell was taken in the first round of Pace’s draft year.

Through their first two seasons, Campbell played 34 games to Pace’s 28. Yet Pace has two interceptions, Campbell has none, and the undrafted Cincinnati star has more sacks (5.5 to Campbell’s 3.5), the same number of forced fumbles, and two more fumble recoveries (Campbell has yet to jump on one).

What is more telling is that Campbell played an extraordinary amount of the teams’ defensive snaps in 2024 (89%) because of the injuries that ravaged the Lions. He still only leads Pace by one point in Pro Football Reference’s approximate value (13 to 12).

This was not to make a case for Pace over Campbell but merely exhibit what the Vikings have gotten through the first two seasons out of a UDFA as opposed to a first rounder from the same year. The Vikings found a gem.

Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, 4th Round

Under general manager Brad Holmes, the Lions are among the best-drafting teams in the league. There are plenty of candidates for this example—All-Pro third-round safety Kerby Joseph and sixth-round linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez come to mind.

But none surpass the dominance of St. Brown, a fourth-round selection out of USC in 2021.

In what is shaping out to be a productive wide receiver class that featured Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith as the first three off the board, the only player comparable to St. Brown is Chase.

St. Brown has appeared in more games than Chase and has caught more passes, though the Bengals wide receiver has the fourth rounder outpaced in everything else that matters.

Not by too big of a clip, though, considering Chase has one of the league’s best passers in Joe Burrow and he was WR1 in the class. St. Brown was the 17th wide receiver taken.

St. Brown has two first-team All-Pro nods. Chase only has one.

Rams: Puka Nacua, WR, 5th Round

Nacua might be the most recent example of mid-to-late round drafting at its best. His rookie season was absurd, posting 1,485 receiving yards, 105 receptions, and six touchdowns en route to a second-team All-Pro selection.

The first four wide receivers off the board, all first rounders, played in as many games or one less than Nacua that first year.

The closest to his receiving yards mark was 911, for his reception total, only 77 was the next best. The only receiving stat he didn’t own among the first rounders was touchdowns—Minnesota’s Jordan Addison had 10. None of them has made a Pro Bowl or All-Pro team.

Looking at the home-grown talent on either side of the ball for each team can be a telling look at the team’s identity and makeup. A look further into where those players were drafted is telling about how good an organization is at drafting.

Sticking to what Reeves said about acquiring talent after the second round, this is the number of home-grown players selected after the second round by each 2024 playoff team:

1. Los Angeles Rams – 14

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 12

3. Tied-Kansas City Chiefs – 11

Tied-Buffalo Bills – 11

4. Green Bay Packers – 10

5. Tied-Pittsburgh Steelers – 9

Tied-Denver Broncos – 9

6. Baltimore Ravens – 8

7. Philadelphia Eagles – 7

8. Los Angeles Chargers – 7

9. Washington Commanders – 6

10. Tied-Detroit Lions – 5

Tied-Minnesota Vikings – 5

11. Houston Texans – 4

There is no exact science to the NFL Draft. To say that it revolves around luck, though, is preposterous. The most successful teams, playoff teams, usually follow a similar formula.

It’s not just the first- and second-round picks they hit on. It’s thirds and fourths. Strong fifth- and sixth-round showings. Don’t slouch with undrafted free agents, either.

Good drafting isn’t gambling—it is investing. Minimizing risk. However, remaining flexible is key. At the NFL Combine, Holmes himself said that the Lions (36-15 since 2022 with an NFC Championship appearance) aren’t a “needs-based” team when it comes to drafting.

“We don’t get too fixated on positions,” he said.

Perhaps “best player available” is reductive; everyone loves a high ceiling. But the difference between boom and bust is how good a prospect’s floor is. The best ceiling is a good floor.

What is the absolute worst he can be?

When I asked Miami Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel at the NFL Combine, he said it this way: “If there’s a ceiling for, ‘Oh that’s good enough and’—that’s extremely attractive, that’s probably what you want the most. You want the NFL ability with room to grow into greatness.”

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