Five Likely Busts From 2026 NFL Free Agency

Will the Ravens have regrets? Did the Colts prioritize the right receiver? The signings that teams may lament a few years down the line.

The Panthers paid big money to get Jaelan Phillips from the Eagles. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Every year, NFL free agency produces three things. 

First, teams sign players who make them better and prove to be worthwhile additions to contending squads. Second, more than a billion dollars move in a single day. And third, a litany of contracts is signed that general managers will try to get out of early, a few years later.

In many cases, the third category isn’t reserved for a bad player signing a huge deal. That rarely happens. Instead, it’s often a good player being paid as though he’s great. After all, best available doesn’t mean best; it means the best player able to leave his team for yours without trade compensation headed the other way. 

Below, we take a look at five signings that, while understandable in the moment, could have unfortunate consequences down the line.

5. Bradley Chubb, edge, Buffalo Bills

The Bills are taking a calculated risk. They believe Chubb can stay healthy for at least two seasons and give them the postseason pass rush they’ve not had in the Josh Allen era. 

However, it’s fair to wonder whether Chubb was the best bet to make. Turning 30 years old in June, Chubb had 8.5 sacks and 20 quarterback hits for the Dolphins last season. The year before that, he missed the season after tearing his ACL. That’s a microcosm of his star-crossed career, as Chubb has been inactive for 42 games across his eight years in the league. 

If Chubb can stay healthy, a $43.5 million, three-year contract is a reasonable deal by general manager Brandon Beane. But if Chubb is often shelved, Buffalo is now without cap space and in dire need of someone who can win off the edge again.

4. Trey Hendrickson, DE, Baltimore Ravens

Nobody drew the ire of people inside the NFL like the Ravens over the past week. Many felt Baltimore backed out of the Maxx Crosby trade because Trey Hendrickson lingered on the open market, and those moans became loud groans when, on Wednesday, Hendrickson signed with the Ravens for four years and $112 million.

All the noise aside, this is a risky deal. Hendrickson, 31, is aging and last year was limited to seven games due to a hip injury. The former Saints and Bengals star notched only four sacks after registering 17.5 sacks in each of the prior two years. Now on the other side of 30, Hendrickson will need to continue his high-level play from 2023 and ’24 to make this contract worthwhile for Baltimore. 

If Crosby, 29, ends up out-performing Hendrickson by a wide margin over the next few seasons, there will be plenty of regret for the Ravens, and plenty of quiet fist pumps from 31 other buildings. 

Alec Pierce caught 47 passes for 1,003 yards with the Colts last season. | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

3. Alec Pierce, WR, Indianapolis Colts

The Colts decided to bet on Pierce while simultaneously moving on from Michael Pittman Jr., sending him to the Steelers for a late-round pick swap.

It’s a risky bet. Pierce is younger at 25 years old and coming off a 1,000-yard season, but Pierce is also producing almost exclusively on a low-volume, big-play ethos. The Colts decided to give their wideout a four-year, $114 million deal with $84 million guaranteed. The overall value and guaranteed amount rank ninth and fifth, respectively. 

Realistically, there’s no world where Pierce likely becomes a top-10 receiver. And while the old adage says the best players hitting the market will always command top dollar, it can be foolhardy to pay the contract someone else should be allowed to give out. If Pierce doesn’t become more than a deep-ball threat (he’s led the league with 22.3 and 21.3 yards per reception over the past two years) and expand his route tree, the contract could be an albatross in the future.

2. Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Tennessee Titans

Robinson is typically the kind of player you want to sign. He’s 25 years old, and he’s gotten better every year. He also gets to reunite with former Giants coach and current Titans offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who got the most out of him in New York. 

However, Robinson projects as more of a secondary weapon and not someone who should be paid toward the top of the market. At four years and $70 million (up to $78 million), Robinson is being slotted in as a No. 2 receiver. Fair enough. The problem is that Robinson has produced a 700-yard season only once. In 2025, Robinson went for 1,014 yards but did so on a whopping 140 targets. His 42.9% success rate ranked 125th of 142 qualified pass catchers, including receivers, tight ends and backs.

If Tennessee can add a legitimate No. 1 option in the draft, such as Carnell Tate, and take some of the opponent’s attention away from Robinson, it could work out all right. But if Robinson is the main component of the passing attack, it’s a problem.

1. Jaelan Phillips, edge, Carolina Panthers

Phillips has to be the top player on this list for two reasons. For starters, he has sustained a pair of very serious lower-leg injuries over his career, including a torn Achilles tendon in 2023 and a torn ACL in ’24. Secondly, he signed a four-year, $120 million deal despite never recording more than 8.5 sacks or 25 quarterback hits in a career. 

While Phillips is a good player, he’s being paid like a superstar. Last season, six players had better numbers, while nine had more than 25 QB hits and 19 players eclipsed the nine-sack threshold. 

Phillips, who will turn 27 in May, should be in the prime of his career for the balance of this deal. If the Panthers have hope that this will work out and be a solid value, that’s the biggest selling point. Because if Phillips doesn’t establish new career highs in significant ways over the coming years, this is an overpay.

---