The Raiders' Week 1 Matchup is Not a Must-Win

The Las Vegas Raiders shouldn't feel pressure to kick off their new season with a win.

Week 1 is not a must-win game because in several regards, it is extremely early. Not only is it the first of a 17-game season, but it is also the first game in Klint Kubiak's tenure with the team. They have 17 more games to figure things out in terms of 2026, and much, much longer to do so under Kubiak.

This season, and Kubiak's tenure with the team will primarily be judged by what he does once Fernando Mendoza takes over. Until then, the Raiders are playing with house money.

Mendoza is Cookin'

In terms of the immediate future, the Raiders are in no rush to get Mendoza on the field. Barring injury or unforeseen circumstances with Kirk Cousins, it is fair to assume Mendoza will not start until at least after the first five or six games, if not longer. It is fair to expect Cousins to make it that long.

Mendoza's time will come. Until it does, the more time he has to develop with no expectations, the better. As soon as he starts for the first time, the Raiders lose the luxury of having few expectations. The clock starts ticking as soon as he becomes the starter. The longer the wait, the better.

Lessons Learned from Last Season?

In Week 1 of last season, Pete Carroll's Raiders traveled to the East Coast to face the New England Patriots. New England, by all accounts, was the better team. Just not on that day. The Raiders left New England with a win, only to lose 13 of their next 15 games.

New England went to the Super Bowl, and they did so with multiple former Raiders playing significant roles in their championship run. Of all the many lessons that were learned last season, and of all the lessons that are commonly confirmed every season around the league, Week 1 means very little.

No Playoff Expectations/Carroll's 3-14 Raiders Are the Bar

The Raiders won three games last season and four the season before. In both seasons, they went on a 10-game losing streak. There are less than five confirmed cases of this happening in league history. However, that works to Kubiak's favor in 2026, as it helps keep things in perspective.

Las Vegas has improved its coaching staff. They have undoubtedly improved one of the league's worst rosters. However, just like the Raiders improved, so did many other teams on their schedule. That schedule is one of the hardest in the league, and the Raiders have several tough stretches.

Week 1 is not a must-win because most people do not have realistic expectations for the Raiders to make the playoffs this year. Their metric for how successful a season 2026 turns out to be will be based on comparisons to the last two seasons, in which the Raiders won a combined seven games.

It is also widely agreed that in today's offense-driven league, offenses often take longer to get going than defenses. After basing much of their offseason coaching and roster moves on improving the offense, the Raiders have to take that into account in Week 1.

Fewer Preseason Games Directly Impact Week 1

It may not seem like a big deal, but one less preseason game to work out the kinks directly impact Week 1. The first week, and for some, the first few weeks in the regular season, are often seen as an extension of the preseason.

Las Vegas will undoubtedly play to win, but there will likely be little that happens in Week 1 that makes or breaks the Raiders' season in any way. They have a tough schedule after the Dolphins, regardless of whether or not they beat the Dolphins.

There are opportunities later in the season, for them to make up ground for a potential Week 1 loss to the Dolphins.

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