Three Games That Will Decide Whether Ravens Make the Playoffs

Division games are always huge, but I'd argue these three games might impact the outcome of the season just as significantly

Nov 3, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) talks to head coach Jim Harbaugh during the first quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Ravens have to be better in divisional games.

We’ve already done that study and run the numbers during the Lamar Jackson era vs the AFC North, and it’s not as great as you’d think. And we’ve harped on their major failures to continue homefield advantage as it was in years past, with the Ravens melting down and flaming out – often against lesser opponents – in games that felt a little more like locks in the past.

Of course, they need to win games in the division and finish the season strong (where so many AFC North games are clustered). It goes without saying that the Bengals appear on paper to be the team best poised to fight Baltimore for the division crown, so those games mean everything.

But if they do not win the division – and they managed not to a year ago despite Pittsburgh being a barely-middling operation – then the head-to-head meetings with other Wild Card hopefuls are essentially playoff games. Those games carry so much weight in the tiebreaker process, that I always find myself circling them as soon as the schedule comes out, and especially when those games are at home. And if they also happen to be in primetime, then they are going to merit special attention.

These three games stand out:

Week 1 @ Colts

The Ravens have suffered slow starts to seasons in recent years, even when they had a staff with a Lombardi Trophy winning head coach in charge in John Harbaugh and another future Lombardi Trophy winner running their defense at the time (Mike Macdonald). And that was with largely continuity and cohesion among staff and scheme and roster; this offseason was all about change and newness (with a tinge of the past) and that can make it tricky to hit the ground running.

This is going to be new for rookie head coach Jesse Minter and rookie offensive coordinator Declan Doyle and the Ravens have had a penchant for early season losses to lesser teams like the Colts or Raiders or Browns. They also have a challenging trip to Brazil looming in Week 3 and it would be nice not having to chase the standings right away.

The Colts were 8-2 before starting quarterback Daniel Jones succumbed to an Achilles injury with a balanced and dynamic attack. Minter’s defense is going to have to lead the way and lead the way early, but it’s still going to take some time for the pieces to fit. Indy might be in the Wild Card mix and this would be a rough one to lose to either  QB coming back off major surgery or, gulp, losing to Anthony Richardson (who would be in the roe of Gardner Minshew).

Week 8 Vs Jaguars

Jacksonville was one of the surprise outfits from 2025 but I don’t think that was a fluke. The coaching staff has chops and they’re probably the best team in the AFC South, but that’s far from certain. This is a short week, with the game at home on Thursday night, in the middle of a run against three straight AFC playoff teams from last year, and the Ravens need to be ready for the moment.

Ideally, this game might be a little deeper in the schedule with better odds for weather player in the Ravens’ favor, but November should bring a chill in the air if nothing else. Lamar Jackson in prime time used to be a lock, but the Lions embarrassed Baltimore on national television early last season and things kind of folded from there.

Maybe it’s not a must-win game – how many really are? – but it looms large.

Week 9 vs Chargers

Minter vs his old team in prime time, with the Ravens on extra rest on a Monday night at home coming off a Thursday night at home. Better take care of business. The Chargers offense threatens to be so much more explosive than ever before with Justin Herbert now that Mike McDaniel is calling plays and they’ve added an influx of twitch and speed.

The Chargers are in a stretch here playing five of seven games on the road and running an absolute gauntlet of opponents in that span before arriving in Baltimore – Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, bye, Rams, Texans. You have to exert some physicality here and sweeping this stretch of games very well could be the difference in this season going back to the norm or falling short like a year ago.

The Minter vs Jim Harbaugh and revenge stuff is, frankly secondary. It will be a real test for his defense and one that Ravens need to find a way to win, especially the way the schedule sets up around it.

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