Saints Hope to End Offensive Woes Against Battered Patriots
The offense of the New Orleans Saints has been, well, offensive so far in 2023. This has been especially true over the last two games, where the Saints have managed a grand total of just 449 yards and have not scored an offensive touchdown in seven quarters.
In four games, New Orleans has averaged only 15.5 points and 285.3 yards per contest. They rank 25th in point production, 23rd in total yardage, and have more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (4).
The 2-2 Saints now travel to face the 1-3 New England Patriots in desperate need of a victory. New England ranks 10th in total defense, allowing 297 yards per contest, but the 24.3 points per game against them ranks just 21st. The Patriots are down two of their best defensive players, OLB Matthew Judon and CB Christian Gonzalez, but look like they'll get two other starters back on Sunday.
Patriots Defense
Jan 1, 2023; New England Patriots linebacker Josh Uche (55) reacts with defensive tackle Christian Barmore (90) after a sack against the Miami Dolphins. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
• vs. Pass = 13th (196 yards/game)
• vs. Run = 11th (101 yards/game)
• 2 turnovers forced
• 10 sacks
New England suffered two big blows last week when losing star rookie CB Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) for the season and top pass rusher Matthew Judon (biceps) for several weeks. This is with DE Trey Flowers (foot) already on the Physically Unable to Perform list. They helped themselves a bit with a trade to bring in CB J.C. Jackson from the Chargers
Judon had four of New England's 10 sacks and nine of their 20 QB hits. The Patriots now need to generate a pass rush that still has Josh Uche (2 sacks, 6 pressures) along the edge and NT Christian Barmore inside.
Outside of a 121-yard game from Miami's Raheem Mostert in Week 2, no other rusher has gained 60 yards against New England's defense. Barmore, Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, and Deatrich Wise aren't highly productive pass rushers, but are big-bodied run defenders for a Patriots 3-4 front that gives up just 3.8 per rush.
The pass rush will come from Uche along the outside, with Bill Belichick designing schemes to free up other rushers. New England also uses linebackers Jahlani Tavai and Ja'Whaun Bentley on disruptive inside blitzes. Anfernee Jennings and Marte Mapu will take Judon's spot on the weakside edge.
Bentley is an underrated playmaker in the middle of the Patriot defense. He's a physical athlete who's led this defense in tackles the last two years that also has good awareness in zone coverage. Veteran S Jabril Peppers is also often brought up into the box and is excellent against the run or as an extra blitzer.
Sep 26, 2021; New England Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson (27) tackles Taysom Hill (7) of the New Orleans Saints. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
The Patriots have allowed 67.4% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks with five touchdowns and four interceptions. They have yet to allow a 100-yard receiver, with three players eclipsing 75 yards against their coverage.
Losing Gonzalez is a big blow, especially with Judon also out to weaken the pass rush. J.C. Jackson should see extensive action right away because he knows the defensive scheme from his previous stint with the team.
The status of CB Jonathan Jones is key for the Patriots. Their longest tenured defensive back, Jones had four interceptions and surrendered just 52.7% completion percentage when targeted last season. He's been dealing with an ankle injury that's sidelined him the last three games. If he can't go, even more will be expected from corners backups Myles Bryant and Shaun Wade with S Jalen Mills possibly moving back to cornerback.
Peppers is the starting free safety, but New England often uses Mills in a deep support role while moving Peppers around the formation. Heady S Kyle Dugger has solid awareness and range as the other starting safety.
Saints Offense
Sep 24, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
• Pass = 22nd (197 yards/game)
• Run = 25th (87 yards/game)
• Red Zone % = 32nd (33.3%)
• 5 turnovers
New Orleans has scored 21 or fewer points in 10 straight games dating back to last season and have less than 355 yards of total offense in every outing in 2023. Derek Carr is dealing with a sprained AC joint in his throwing shoulder, TE Juwan Johnson (calf) is out this Sunday, and guards James Hurst and Andrus Peat are both questionable with injuries.
Play calling, game plans, and execution have all been major issues for New Orleans. Firstly, better play is needed from an offensive line that played noticeably better last week but has vastly underperformed most of the year.
Saints running backs have averaged a lowly 3.5 per carry, 25th in the league. Opposing pass rushers have recorded 15 sacks and 27 QB hits against porous New Orleans pass protection. Tackles Trevor Penning and Ryan Ramczyk played slightly improved ball last week. Center Erik McCoy and the return of RG Cesar Ruiz will be tasked with getting inside push for the running game and setting up a better interior pass pocket.
Even before the injury in Week 3, Carr has been slightly off with his accuracy. He does seem to have a good grasp of the system, but needs to get the ball to his playmakers faster and more accurately. Carr is more than capable of operating an offense at a high level.
Alvin Kamara returned to the lineup last week after a three-game suspension and was a big part of the offense. Kamara had 24 touches against Tampa Bay, including 13 receptions, but managed only 84 total yards. The dynamic seventh-year back should continue to get a lot of touches going forward, with the Saints trying to get him outside the tackles and in space.
Rookie Kendre Miller will be the primary backfield depth with the release of Tony Jones Jr. Miller is an athletic complement to Kamara. Taysom Hill continues his jack-of-all-trades role with the majority of his snaps coming behind center. Hill is a power runner with breakaway speed that can also throw the ball against an unsuspecting defense.
Juwan Johnson will miss his second straight week, but TE Foster Moreau returns after a two game injury absence. Moreau is a more traditional in-line tight end and is valuable as a run blocker, but he's also an underrated receiving threat in the intermediate areas. Veteran Jimmy Graham can still be a receiving mismatch if used properly (Pete Carmichael). He'll see most of his action in specialized packages and in the red zone.
Sep 18, 2023; New Orleans Saints receiver Chris Olave (12) catches the ball against the Carolina Panthers. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints have a trio of wideouts that can give opponents fits. Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed threaten defenses at all three levels and have accounted for over 80% of the team's receiving yardage.
Over his first 18 NFL games, Olave never had less than three catches or 40 yards. That changed against the Buccaneers, when he pulled in just one of six targets for four yards and looked disinterested much of the game. Expect Olave, who leads the team with 23 catches and 306 yards, to get involved early and have a much better outing.
Thomas continues to physically dominate defensive backs in his eighth season. He has 22 receptions for 219 yards and is most effective through the intermediate zones in the middle of the field and along the sidelines.
Speedster Shaheed is an even bigger big-play threat than Olave, either on deep balls or in the open field after a short throw. Shaheed has 12 receptions for 185 yards, but only three catches for 33 yards the last two games.
What to Expect
Sep 26, 2021; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the New England Patriots. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY
The Saints need something -Anything- from an offense that has been beyond woeful so far. It starts with more competent playcalling and tempo, but better execution by the players is also needed.
Look for the Saints to get Kamara, Olave, and Thomas involved early. Establishing the run will give New Orleans balance and help protect Carr from longer down and distance situations. It's imperative that the Saints also establish tempo to keep Belichick's defensive play-calling off balance.
Expect the Patriots to play a softer coverage with several blitzes worked into their game plan. With their protection issues, it would be unwise if the Saints came in with heavy downfield routes. Instead, New Orleans should attack the New England secondary with quick throws.
Aug 11, 2016; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) catches a pass against the New England Patriots. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY
Olave and Shaheed can still be dangerous weapons in the open field after accurate shorter throws. Thomas, Moreau, and Graham are physical targets that can be used in the middle while Kamara should be used as an outside target. This could cause the Patriots to cheat coverage up and open up deeper shots later in the contest.
New England doesn't have the team speed to match Kamara in the open field or the coverage skills to match up with New Orleans wideouts. It's up to Pete Carmichael to design the plays to maximize his playmaking threats, then on Carr to find the best matchup on each play, then get the ball there.
The New Orleans offense, and perhaps their season, is at a crossroads. This is a unit that has disappointed in every capacity, but has the talent to rebound if they can play up to their collective and individual abilities.
