Saints Running Game Should Be Key Against Panthers Defense
For the first time all season, the New Orleans Saints play consecutive home games when they host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. The Saints come in with a 5-7 record, losers of three straight, and in desperate need of a win to hold onto flickering hopes in the NFC South. Carolina holds a 1-11 mark and fresh off firing coach Frank Reich two weeks ago.
New Orleans has been up and down all year offensively. They average 348.3 yards per game to rank 11th in total yardage. However, ranking 26th in red zone efficiency has contributed to an average of only 21.4 points per contest, ranking 19th in the league. Additionally, QB Derek Carr suffered rib injuries and his second concussion in less than three weeks last Sunday, leaving doubt around his status.
Carolina counters with a defense that allows 26 points per outing, ranking 31st in the NFL. The Panthers don't give up a lot of yardage. They rank seventh in that category with just 306/game, but they are 30th in red zone defense.
With Carr's status up in the air, his erratic play, and a banged-up receiving corps, being able to run the ball carries extra importance. This is an area that the Panthers have shown particular vulnerability this season.
Carolina Run Defense
Sep 18, 2023; Carolina Panthers linebacker Frankie Luvu (49) tries to stop New Orleans Saints running back Tony Jones Jr. (34) from crossing the goal line. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
The Panthers give up 125.2 yards per game on the ground and 4.2 per carry, ranking 23rd in the league. Opponents have rushed for 20 touchdowns against them, most in the NFL. Carolina has only allowed two 100-yard rushers, but seven other runners have picked up at least 70 yards.
The Panthers run a base 3-4 scheme with some big-bodied defenders up front, but it's a thin unit. Former Saint Shy Tuttle has always been strong against the run and anchors the line in the middle. End Derrick Brown, the seventh overall choice in the 2020 draft, has six tackles for loss. DeShawn Williams has been adequate at the other end, but only Nick Thurman and Bravvion Roy provide big depth up front.
Carolina's outside LB position is stocked with former 4-3 defensive ends. Brian Burns leads their team with 12 tackles for loss and is extremely disruptive, whether against the run or as a pass rusher. Yetur Gross-Matos can get pushed around at the point of attack, but can knife between blockers with his terrific burst. Amare Barno and Marquis Haynes provide very athletic depth along the outside.
Inside LB Frankie Luvu is one of the NFL's most underrated players at his position. Luvu leads the Panthers with 90 tackles, including eight for loss and 51 solo stops. Deion Jones is a lightning-fast sideline-to-sideline defender, but is often caught out of position. Kamu Grugier-Hill is an aggressive downhill player always around the ball who is equally effective inside or outside.
Versatile defensive back Jeremy Chinn has seen a lot of reps at cornerback because of injuries. He's also outstanding against the run when the Panthers use him around the line of scrimmage. Safeties Xavier Woods and former Saint Vonn Bell are each sure tacklers also effective in the tackle box. Carolina corners aren't nearly as involved in run support and have had issues with open field tackling.
New Orleans Rushing Attack
Jan 8, 2023; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs past Carolina Panthers defensive tackle Derrick Brown (95) and safety Xavier Woods (25). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints average just 105 yards per game on the ground, ranking 19th in the league, with their 3.7 per carry a lowly 28th. They've been held to under 90 yards rushing by six of their 12 opponents.
Alvin Kamara has 508 yards and four scores on the ground over nine games, but has only one outing of 80 yards or better. Kamara has proven more than capable of big performances on the ground with elite vision, balance, and underrated power.
Taysom Hill remains the most reliable power runner for the Saints. Hill is second on the team with 346 yards rushing and is tied with Kamara with a team-high four touchdowns. With outstanding power and excellent speed, Hill is a valuable weapon anywhere on the field.
Sep 18, 2023; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) runs against Carolina Panthers linebacker Brian Burns (0) and defensive end Nick Thurman (91). Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Offseason pickup Jamaal Williams has had disappointing production. Williams missed some time earlier this year with a hamstring injury, but has only 147 rushing yards in eight games. Even more disappointing is the fact that he's averaging only 2.8 per carry and has no touchdowns after leading the NFL in that category last season.
A primary reason that Williams, an inside runner, hasn't been effective is because of an underachieving offensive line. Guards Cesar Ruiz, James Hurst, and C Erik McCoy have been unable to establish control of the line of scrimmage in most games. The inconsistencies of Ruiz and McCoy are especially disappointing, considering their past successes.
New Orleans has had most of their success on the ground between the guard and tackles. Veteran Andrus Peat has performed well since replacing a benched Trevor Penning, while RT Ryan Ramczyk can still flatten defenders as a run blocker.
What to Watch
Jan 8, 2023; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) gets past Carolina Panthers defensive tackle Bravvion Roy (93). Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints rushed for 134 yards and averaged four yards per attempt in a Week 2 defeat of the Panthers. This despite being without Kamara due to suspension. In that contest, Taysom Hill broke several key runs on his way to 75 yards on just nine carries.
Whether it's a battered Derek Carr or Jameis Winston behind center on Sunday, the Saints need to unleash both Kamara and Hill. They're not only important for balance, but are also the keys to red zone success.
Carolina has faltered against physical offenses this season. The Saints have struggled to gain physical control in most games. They must do so on Sunday for a successful game plan that should revolve around Kamara and Hill.
