Why Sam Darnold is Paying Close Attention to the Baker Mayfield Contract Situation

Fresh off two straight fourteen win seasons and a super bowl title, Darnold is just one more good year away from a shot at a monster contract extension.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) and running back Kenneth Walker III (9) celebrate with the Vince Lombardi trophy after defeating the New England Patriots. | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Last offseason, Sam Darnold was caught in an uncommon limbo for an NFL quarterback. Most of the time, when a quarterback is up for a new contract, they’re either clearly The Guy (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott) or they’re clearly Not The Guy (Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston Joe Flacco). In both cases, they are paid accordingly.

Schrodinger’s Quarterback

Sam was one of the quarterbacks who hit the market being both The Guy and Not The Guy at the same time. He was coming off a breakout season in Minnesota. 4,300 yards, 35 touchdowns, and a 102.5 QB rating. However, that season had been preceded by six bad ones across three different teams, so not everyone was sold that he was a franchise guy yet.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes against the Los Angeles Rams. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

So he didn’t get the $50-60 million a year that The Guy gets, or the $5-15 million a year that those who are Not The Guy will often earn. Darnold landed in the middle, getting a three year contract worth $33.5 million per season. He responded by having another strong season, this time wrapping it up by winning the super bowl. Looks like the cat is alive.

Parallel Quarterback Sagas

Darnold’s contract will likely be re-visited next offseason. And he won’t be the only veteran quarterback who initially busted in the NFL before finding success looking for a payday. Baker Mayfield is caught up in a contract showdown of his own in Tampa Bay. He’s entering the final season of his current deal, but Tampa is reportedly shutting down extension talks.

The #Bucs and QB Baker Mayfield are expected to end contract extension talks, and the plan now is for Mayfield to play this season on the final year of his contract.

He is scheduled to become a free agent in March. pic.twitter.com/sE9ky3kjAd

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) July 28, 2026

So Mayfield’s hunt for big money is a bit more dramatic than Darnold’s, but otherwise, the two have a lot in common. Both were high draft picks who failed with their original teams, bounced around, then caught on as genuine franchise quarterbacks when most had given up on them. They also both took mid-level contracts after their initial breakout.

Mayfield The Herald

Supposedly, Tampa is shutting down contract talks with Baker until after the season. If he plays well and things go well for the Buccaneers, perhaps they reconsider that. He might hit free agency and sign elsewhere in March, or maybe get tagged for trading purposes. Either way, Baker will get his deal before a Darnold extension is settled.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) in the huddle against the San Francisco 49ers. | Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Furthermore, let’s consider the likely outcome of the 2026 season for both players. Mayfield figures to put up good numbers, as he has for the last few seasons, although the supporting cast in Tampa Bay isn’t what it used to be, and the Bucs will probably be mediocre. Darnold will likely play very well, although context may limit his numbers, and the Seahawks will contend.

Mayfield reportedly wants in excess of $50 million a year on his next deal. If he gets it, which he likely would as long as he performs well individually during the season, will Darnold be able to reasonably point at that and argue that he should be getting more? If Baker gets $52 million, will Darnold have a case for $55 million. I suspect the answer is yes.

Will Schneider Tango?

Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider looks on before Super Bowl LX against the New England Patriots. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This is how I imagine things will play out next offseason, but the part that I’m less sure about is whether John Schneider plays along. We’ve heard that Schneider had to be dragged kicking and screaming to give Russell Wilson his extension, and when faced with doing it again, preferred trading him away. And a few years later, he also traded Geno Smith.

Schneider is more willing to pivot off a quarterback than most other general managers. If Darnold comes to the table next year expecting top-of-the-market money, or something close to it, I do wonder if John sends him to get it elsewhere, and satisfies himself with a set of draft picks instead. Perhaps Milroe Mania will sweep Seattle after all.

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