What the latest Seahawks-49ers odds tell us about Sam Darnold's injury

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is about to kick off between the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos. When they're through, we'll see the top-sseded Seattle Seahawks hosting the San Francisco 49ers.

The story going into tonight's game is the status of Seattle's starting quarterback, Sam Darnold. On Thursday Darnold suddenly popped up on the injury report with what the team called an oblique injury. He is listed as questionable to play tonight.

Darnold and head coach Mike Macdonald have made it clear that they expect him to start, but that hasn't stopped a great deal of hand-wringing over whether or not he'll be able to go.

Here's something that should offer clarity on the situation.

We learned of Darnold's injury about 48 hours ago - but despite an effort on the part of some in the media to turn it into a huge story, the market seems completely unbothered by the news. Case in point: the odds from DraftKings Sportsbook stand at Seahawks -7, exactly the same as it was before we learned about Darnold's oblique.

In other words, Darnold's injury is of no real concern to those who make the odds - who know these things better than anybody. So, this is either an entirely non-story to drum up some clicks on game day, or the bookmakers had already decided the Seahawks are going to win by a touchdown no matter who's in at QB.

Our best guess is that Darnold's injury is something he can play through - but the latter would not come as a shock, either.

Much like the last time these two teams met in the postseason, this matchup will be decided at the line of scrimmage. Three years ago, that meant getting decimated by San Francisco's elite defensive front-seven in trenches en route to a humiliating 41-23 loss and early playoff exit.

This time around, that dynamic has been flipped on its head - and the most lopsided matchup will be Seattle's Dark Side/Death Zone gang going to town against Trent WIlliams and the rest of the 49ers' offensive line, which isn't nearly as good. This unit obliterated the 49ers in the trenches two weeks ago to end the regular season.

The Seahawks also managed to dominate the 49ers at the line of scrimmage offensively as well in that meeting. The running lanes that opened up were nothing like what we witnessed all year outside of a preposterous run blocking performance during the preseason.

If both sides of the line of scrimmage play out the same way, it won't matter whether Darnold is in the lineup or not.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Nov 23, 2025; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold (14) leaves the field after a game against the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. | Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

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