Steelers vs. Bills: Stopping Buffalo's Closer and 4 Other Things to Watch

The Pittsburgh Steelers are riding a three-game losing streak and face an improbably task this week, facing off against the highflying act that is the Buffalo Bills.

The Steelers enter as 14-point underdogs for the first time since the merger. This week will be a critical visual test for a team in transition and should give clues to how far the team is away from competing with the best squads in the AFC conference.

Here are some things to watch for in this weeks matchup.

Kenny Pickett's Time to Shine

The clock struck midnight on Mitch Trubisky's starting gig in Pittsburgh only to usher in the Kenny Pickett era which began at halftime last week against the New York Jets. The 2022 first round pick was the first quarterback off the board in April's NFL Draft and it was perceived as only a matter of time before he would take over as the face of the franchise.

Last weeks results were a bit mixed, there were a couple poor decisions that led to turnovers via unlucky bounces but there were also high level flashes of anticipation and accuracy. With Pickett now under center, expect the Steelers to be more volatile on offense, with more turnover worthy plays but coupled with efficiency moving the ball down the field for points.

There's no doubt that the schedule coming up is rough at first sight, with the next four coming against opponents that will be considered favorites against the Steelers. A full week of preparation and game-planning will allow offensive coordinator Matt Canada a chance to hopefully devise a winning formula on offense.

No matter what, Pickett will forever be compared to the quarterback he's attempting to replace in Ben Roethlisberger but everyone would be wise to exercise patience and avoid placing unrealistic expectations on the young signal caller.

Pickett's development is the single most important thing for the Steelers organization, not just in the short term but in the long-term landscape of the direction of the franchise.

MORE: Von Miller Calls Out Kenny Pickett

Third Down Defense Must Improve

The Steelers defense just couldn't seem to get off the field late in the game against the New York Jets. To the dismay of everyone in Acrisure stadium, Zach Wilson was able to prolong drives with his arm and lead a game winning drive. Pittsburgh faces a much different challenge this week in Josh Allen, already one of the best at his position.

Allen's been a monster on third downs over the first month over the season and a big reason why Buffalo boasts the number one third down offense in the league, converting nearly 56% of their chances. In these situations, Allen's averaging 9.9 yards per attempt on a quarterback rating of 117.5. He's also been able to pick up five additional first downs via his legs.

The Steelers need to be mindful about Allen's mobility as it pertains to money down situations. There were times last week when Pittsburgh pass rushers were able to get in the vicinity of Zach Wilson but were unable to corral him, allowing him to escape trouble. Allen's also capable of extending plays as he's nimble enough to bolt for the perimeter and a tough customer to get on the ground thanks to his unique size and strength profile.

One secret to the Bills success on third downs has been their ability to mostly keep Allen clean as he's been pressured at the fourth lowest rate in the NFL. Alex Highsmith has been essentially a one man wrecking crew up front this season for the Steelers defense. They'll need him to continue his upward trajectory and get some help from his partners in order to rattle the Bills superstar quarterback.

Buffalo's Defense is Predictable But Stout

Bills head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane deserve immense praise for their efforts in molding the Buffalo Bills into a contender. After leading the NFL in points and yards allowed in 2021, McDermott and Leslie Fraziers defense is at it again in 2022. They currently rank first in yards allowed and have allowed the second fewest points in the NFL.

Those numbers are incredibly impressive on the surface but even more eye-popping when considering the unfortunate circumstances that have arisen. They've dealt with a litany of tough injuries that include some of their most important pieces in All-Pro cornerback Tre White and Pro-Bowl safety Micah Hyde. Yet, they persevere each week without missing a beat, proving that their scheme isn't overly reliant on a few of their stars.

Even more interesting is that the Bills are extremely predictable on defense, they essentially act as perfectionist in their specialties and rarely, if ever, are moved away from their philosophy. Their philosophy can be broken down into three main categories from a schematic perspective, via Sports Info Solutions:

Buffalo relies on a four man rush and avoid blitzing at all cost. They've used a four man rush 89% of the time this season, which ranks first in usage across the league. They've only blitzed a grand total of 11 times through the first four weeks of the season.
Buffalo aligns in a two-high safety shell, opting to play middle of the field open coverage on a consistent basis. They use split field safety looks 71% of the time, and middle of the field open coverages more than any other team.
Buffalo is a predominantly a zone based defense which operates best with defenders keeping their eyes on the quarterback. The Bills have used variations of zone coverage on 75% of their defensive snaps, the most in the NFL.

What the Bills like to do on defense isn't a secret but they're so fundamentally sound and in sync that they can make offenses struggle to move the ball. This is a tough challenge for a young Steelers offense but if they can show some promise this week, this could be a building block of things to come.

The Bills Weak Link on Offense

Buffalo might be the Super Bowl favorites according to Vegas but every team has a weakness and the Bills are no different in that regard. They have a superstar quarterback surrounded by plenty of dangerous weapons at his disposal but they are a little over-reliant on their alien-like gunslinger.

Aside from Josh Allen, the Bills haven't been able to render anything useful out of their ground attack. Their lead running back Devin Singletary has been ineffective in his usage thus far, averaging just 3.8 yards per carry on the season. Zach Moss has often drawn the criticism of the fan base for being mostly a plodder that struggles to provide much excitement in the open field. To make matters worse, all three running backs have fumbled in the first four weeks with the rookie second round pick James Cook putting the ball on the turf on his first NFL touch.

Josh Allen is one of the highest paid players in the league for a reason, equipped with an unbelievable amount of physical tools but even the best of the best want a competent rushing attack as a compliment. Shutting Allen down is a nearly impossible task but if the Steelers can neutralize his impact by taking away those splash plays down the field, forcing him to methodically move the ball on long drives, they have a slim chance in this one.

The offensive line hasn't provided enough of a consistent push up front and the Bills backs aren't creating enough splash on their own through broken or missed tackles. It's not going to be easy to stop but this offense lives and dies by the talents of the quarterback. You stop him and there's a good chance the offense deconstructs itself.

Beware of Buffalo's Closer

Brandon Beane adding Von Miller to an already ferocious defensive unit was one of the best moves of the offseason. A move that's already paying huge dividends, he's accumulated three sacks to date to accompany a healthy 15.2% pressure rate. The addition has also seemed to help those young pieces around him such as Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa who are both off to hot starts.

Miller's widely considered the best edge rusher of his era, assisting both the Denver Broncos and Los Angelas Rams in their Super Bowl title pursuits. Miller's one of the best closers in the game on defense, a player that's capable of flipping the script of the game on a whim or coming up big in the clutch. The Steelers got an unfortunate taste of that in the 2015 AFC playoff matchup against the Denver Broncos when Miller was at the peak of his game.

While Miller's no longer in his prime, he's still incredibly effective off the edge. He still possesses a freakishly quick first step to pair with inconceivable bend on contact. All of those physical tools to pair with variety of pass rush moves, none which are more devastating than his signature "ghost" move which speed rushers around the league have tried emulating for years.

While the Steelers tackles have been surprisingly solid this season, they'll need to turn in a strong performance to keep Pickett upright in the pocket. One way to ensure this happens is continue to give them help via chips from the tight ends and running backs. Matt Canada has done a much better job this season in that aspect and he'll need to send reinforcements to whichever side Miller aligns on with each rep.

Make sure you bookmark All Steelers for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more!

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