Texans vs. Steelers: Four Bold Predictions for Monday’s NFL Wild-Card Round Clash

Karl Rasmussen | 19 Hours Ago

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers will make his 22nd playoff start Monday against the Texans / Scott Galvin-Imagn Images

The Steelers were the last team to clinch their spot to the 2025 NFL playoffs, sneaking in the door after winning the division as a result of a missed game-winning field goal by Ravens kicker Tyler Loop.

Now, the stage is set for their wild-card round matchup, where they’ll host the Texans at Acrisure Stadium in the final game of wild-card weekend. The game is slated for Monday night, with kickoff set for 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Entering play, Houston is considered a slight favorite, even on the road, as they look to make it an early exit for Aaron Rodgers & Co.

The Texans started out the year 0–3, but they managed to turn things around and win 12 of their remaining 14 games, including each of their last nine. They will enter Monday’s game as the hottest team in the NFL. They’ll be facing a Pittsburgh side that narrowly snuck into the postseason after winning four of its last five games.

Let’s make some bold predictions for Monday night’s game.

Texans' defense will hold Steelers' offense without a touchdown

The Houston Texans have one of the NFL’s best defenses. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Houston’s defense is one of the best in the NFL. Only the Broncos surrendered fewer yards per game, and the Texans have limited opposing quarterbacks to an average passer rating of 76.4 this season. That’s the third-best mark in the league. Houston has created 29 turnovers, including 17 interceptions, and have sacked opposing quarterbacks 47 times this season, which ranks ninth in the NFL.

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All of that to say, moving the ball downfield and getting into the end zone will be difficult for the Steelers on Monday night. Pittsburgh struggled against the stalwart Browns’ defense lately, being held to just six points and failing to score a single touchdown. I think those woes will be on display again against the Texans, who I am predicting will keep the Steelers out of the end zone all game long. It would mark just the second game this season that Pittsburgh hasn’t scored a touchdown, but also, the second time in three weeks.

Aaron Rodgers will throw for less than 200 passing yards for just the fourth time in his playoff career

Aaron Rodgers made the playoffs in his first season with the Steelers. / Barry Reeger-Imagn Images

The Texans surrendered an average of 185.4 passing yards per game in 2025. Their defense surrendered 20 passing touchdowns all year, and opposing QBs completed just 59.3% of their passes against Houston. The Texans are not an easy team to move the ball through the air against, and I think Rodgers will experience plenty of difficulty trying to air it out on Monday night.

Rodgers has played in a total of 21 playoff games in his career. He’s recorded 200 or more passing yards in 18 of those games. I’m expecting the Texans to hold him under the two-century mark for just the fourth time in his playoff career, and the first time (in a playoff setting) since 2015, when Rodgers was still with the Packers.

Woody Marks will score a rushing touchdown for the first time since Week 10

Texans rookie running back Woody Marks hasn’t rushed for a touchdown since Week 10 / Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Houston has leaned upon the tandem of Nick Chubb and Marks out of the backfield this season. Neither have been world beaters, but they’ve been productive enough as a unit. Marks has seen the bulk of the carries of late, though it’s been quite a while since he’s found the end zone on the ground.

The fourth-round pick has rushed 196 times for 703 yards this season and has recorded two rushing touchdowns on the year. He’s had double-digit carries in 10 of his last 11 games, but hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown since the Texans’ Week 10 win against the Jaguars. I think that streak will come to an end on Monday night and that Marks will rush for a touchdown for the first time in over two months.

Texans will win ugly in low-scoring game with less than 30 total points

Texans take on the Steelers during NFL wild-card weekend. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

I don’t think this has the makings of a high-scoring game. Defense will be the determining factor on Monday night, and that’s an area where the Texans have the upper-hand against almost every team in the NFL.

I’m not expecting either team to score more than three touchdowns in the game. This season, Houston’s defense held opponents to one or fewer touchdowns in five of their 17 games, and I think they’ll fare even better on Monday night, keeping Pittsburgh out of the end zone entirely.

I’m predicting the Texans will win this one in an ugly, defense-first game that totals less than 30 points. I think that’s a game script that better fits Houston, which will edge out a narrow win to secure its spot in the divisional round.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 20, Steelers 9

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