Three Keys for Texans to Win Wild Card vs Steelers

The Houston Texans will be looking to keep their recent winning ways alive from the second half of their regular season heading into the playoffs for a tenth-consecutive victory, tasked with taking the road to go up against the AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers and Aaron Rodgers.

For the Texans, they have yet to have a bigger game this season. Their season's on the line, as is a third-consecutive Wild Card victory of the DeMeco Ryans era to help keep their Super Bowl hopes alive and well, and they will meet a rabid Steelers crowd in front of the primetime lights of Monday Night Football that certainly won't make the challenge ahead any easier.

However, if able to keep a few keys at the top of mind, the Texans should have a real chance of coming away on top against the Black and Gold, and thus head back to Houston with a refreshing playoff win before further advancing into the divisional round.

Here are the three keys to victory for Houston to make those playoff victory aspirations come to fruition.

1. Stay the Course Against Aaron Rodgers

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) fires off a pass during the first half of an NFL football game at Huntington Bank Field, Dec. 28, 2025, in Cleveland, Ohio. | Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Texans' elite defense matches up well with just about any offense in the league, but against Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers' scoring unit, Houston stacks up especially well.

According to numbers via NFL Pro, Aaron Rodgers targeted receivers below 10 air yards on 71.5% of his attempts this season, the highest rate by any quarterback in the last three seasons. However, the Texans allowed a league-low 5.0 yards per attempt on passes below 10 air yards and were one of two defenses with more interceptions (8) than touchdowns allowed (6) on such passes. Houston also allowed a 39.8% success rate on underneath throws, one of just three defenses in the last ten seasons to hold opponents below 40%.

With all of that in mind, the Texans simply don't allow offenses to chip away at them with quick, short passes to move downfield. The Steelers, on the other hand, consistently rely on those short passes from Rodgers to get his playmakers in space and get yards after a catch.

It's a formula that certainly bodes well for Houston, who's given top-notch offenses trouble throughout the regular season en route to their nine-straight wins, and could do the same against the future Hall of Famer in 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, so long as they keep that same pressure on the short game and force Pittsburgh to push the ball further down the field.

2. Win on Third Downs

Jan 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) rolls out against the Indianapolis Colts during the first half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The Texans' scoring unit, led by C.J. Stroud (and for three games mid-season, Davis Mills), has been up and down throughout their 12-5 campaign, but one area that's been consistently lackluster for their offense has been their ability to win on third down.

Of the 14 playoff teams to advance to the Wild Card Round, the Texans are the bottom three in the NFL for third down success rate, converting on just 37.23% of their opportunities. Outside of the Carolina Panthers and Philadelphia Eagles, no playoff team was less efficient.

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The Texans have proven they can have their flashes of offensive success, especially through their resilient second-half stretch of the season. However, in a one-game Wild Card elimination, the importance of those opportunities on late downs will be critical for Houston to capitalize on, putting extended pressure on both Stroud and Nick Caley's offensive play-calling to be at their best on the Monday Night Football stage.

If those third down conversions come up short more often than not for the Texans' offense throughout the night, they could be facing an uphill battle and put a bit more pressure than necessary on their defense to help carry them out of Pittsburgh alive.

3. Keep the Rookie Playmakers Involved

Jan 4, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Jayden Higgins (81) runs off the field after making a touchdown catch against the Indianapolis Colts during the first half at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

Gradually throughout their 2025 campaign, the Texans' first-year talents have begun to get more and more involved on the offensive side of the ball.

Fourth round running back Woody Marks has carved his way into being the Texans' lead runner in the backfield, second round wideout Jayden Higgins has become the team's third-leading receiver in yards per game, and his former Iowa State teammate Jaylin Noel is getting increasingly more snaps on the offensive end as a receiver along with his existing role on special teams.

That trio has been both explosive and productive as the season has progressed. That trend will have to continue for the Texans, especially in the receiving game, in order to help out star wideout Nico Collins, who is bound to have a tough matchup on his part against Joey Porter Jr., who hasn't allowed a touchdown in coverage for his past 1,467 regular-season snaps, while also allowing just a 53.0% completion percentage when targeted throughout the year.

Expect Collins to still chip in for his share of damage offensively, even with a tough matchup on the boundary, but in order for the Texans offense to be at their best, it'll require the playbook to be opened up for those young playmakers in Higgins. Marks, and Noel to be trusted to create explosive moments.

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