How the Remaining AFC Playoff Contenders Stack Up With Each Other
The AFC playoff race has turned into a game of musical chairs.
With one week remaining, there are five teams with matching 10-5 records – the Tennessee Titans included – that have to fight it out for the final four postseason spots. None of the five will go head-to-head in Week 17, which means will be plenty of scoreboard watching next Sunday.
According to playoffstatus.com, the Titans are the most likely of the five to make it, a 96 percent chance, to be exact. They don’t even need to win Sunday at Houston to be in the field. They will advance if either Baltimore or Miami loses, and both of those teams will play before Tennessee’s contest kicks off.
Indianapolis is currently the odd team out, but at 88 percent its chances are better than Miami’s (76 percent) or Cleveland’s (50 percent). The other contender is Baltimore, which has an 89 percent chance to play beyond the end of the regular season.
A look at how the remaining AFC playoff contenders compare to one another:
RECENT RESULTS
Best: Baltimore (4-0). Worst: Tennessee (2-2).
The Ravens, Dolphins and Colts all had winning records in December. Baltimore is the only one to win all four and three of the four were by margins of two touchdowns or more.
The Titans and Browns both went 2-2. However, Cleveland started the month with a victory at Nissan Stadium, and Tennessee’s two victories were over terrible opponents (Detroit and Jacksonville).
If momentum means anything, the Titans are in trouble.
RUSHING OFFENSE
Best: Baltimore (177.8 yards per game). Worst: Miami (107.9 yards per game).
Baltimore, Tennessee (second) and Cleveland (fourth) are all among the NFL’s top five. Derrick Henry is the NFL’s rushing leader by a wide margin (he has 220 yards more than Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook), and his 5.2 yards per carry average is second among the top 10. He is the dominant individual when it comes to running the ball.
The Ravens, though, have a varied attack led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, who has a team-high 908 rushing yards and two others, Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins, with more than 600 rushing yards.
Henry proved late last season and in the playoffs what a difference he can make at this time of the year. Once again, he gives the Titans an advantage over nearly everyone else.
PASSING OFFENSE
Best: Indianapolis (259.3 yards per game). Worst: Baltimore (174.5 yards per game).
At a time when throwing the ball is very much in vogue, four of the five rank outside of the top 20 in this regard, led by the Titans at 21st, and all five are in the bottom half of the NFL in pass attempts. No doubt, that has to do with the fact that with twice as many wins as losses, these teams have had plenty of chances to run the ball late to run time off the clock.
Indianapolis is eighth in yards per game and is the only of the five that has completed more than two-thirds of its passes. However, the Titans have the most efficient attack with an average of 7.2 yards per attempt and a 106.1 passer rating, both of which rank in the top five.
Led by quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee’s passing attack is largely underappreciated by the rest of the NFL.
RUSHING DEFENSE
Best: Indianapolis (92.9 yards per game). Worst: Tennessee (122.5 yards per game).
All five teams rank among the NFL’s top 20, with the Titans checking in at 20th after their worst performance of the season against the run Sunday at Green Bay. The Colts and Dolphins are among the eight NFL teams that have not allowed a run of 40-plus yards. Some of Tennessee’s struggles are offset by the fact that it is one of four teams that has forced 10 or more fumbles in the run game.
The Colts have limited 10 of their 15 opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards, but their two worst performances in this regard were against the Titans – 157 yards on Nov. 12 and 229 yards Nov. 29.
PASSING DEFENSE
Best: Baltimore (232.5 yards per game). Worst: Tennessee (271.9 yards per game).
None of the five are among the top 10 in passing yards per game allowed. Tennessee is actually among the top 10 in average yards per completion at 10.7, but has allowed more first downs passing (230) than all but two other teams, which makes its pass defense the football equivalent of death by 1,000 paper cuts.
Miami has given up more big plays than the others, 52 completions of 20-plus yards, but has allowed just 17 touchdown passes all season, tied for second fewest in the league.
The feeling all year has been that the Titans’ pass defense, which has been hindered by an anemic pass rush, will be their undoing. Recent performances have done nothing to alter that line of thought.
INTANGIBLES
Best: Miami. Worst: Cleveland.
With the way the Dolphins won Saturday in Las Vegas, there can be no team that has more reason to believe destiny is on its side. Plus, they continue to switch between quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Ryan Fitzpatrick with surprising success, which is bound to create headaches for opposing defensive coordinators.
The Browns are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak, one that cost them a game against the New York Jets, at the most inopportune time. For a franchise that has made the playoffs just once in the previous 21 seasons, the feeling of dread is almost palpable.
Tennessee was the last team to make the playoffs in 2019, yet it made an improbable run to last season’s AFC Championship game. That feeling that anything is possible as long as you get into the postseason is bound to provide a measure of belief others will not have.
