Hitting the Ceiling: Tim Kelly's New Offense Can Maximize Titans' Success

NASHVILLE — The Tennessee Titans will need a much improved offense in 2023 if they hope to reach their ceiling as a team. While there is some uncertainty on defense, expecting more consistency on that side of the ball isn't a hot take. So, what does the Titans offense need to happen to make that improvement?

Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry have been constants for the Titans since 2019. What will really determine the offense's fate will be the factors around those two. In this series we will discuss what has to happen with those factors for the Titans to hit their ceiling this season. First, we have to talk about Titans' offensive coordinator Tim Kelly and the new offense he is installing.

Tim Kelly's Offense

The changes to the Titans' offense appear to be quite substantial. We saw a healthy renovation to the offensive coaching staff and at the top of the list of changes was the promotion of Tim Kelly from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator. Apparently, the Titans offensive playbook is changing as much as the coaches did.

There were a pair of situational statistics that surfaced last week and it only highlighted how poorly the Titans performed on offense last season. The Titans were the third-worst team in the NFL at scoring on their offensive drives. The Titans also had a 3-and-out on 48% of their drives in the second half of games. Last in the NFL.

% of 2nd half drives that went 3-and-out

48% - TEN
47%
46%
45%
44%
43%
42%
41% - CHI
40%
39% - NO, LAR
38% - DAL, NE, TB, DEN
37% - HOU, NYJ, CAR
36% - MIN
35% - PIT
34% - CIN, BUF, LAC
33% - MIA, JAX
32% - IND, ARI, LV, WAS
31%
30% - CLE, BAL, PHI
29%
28% - GB, SEA
27%
26% -…
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 4, 2023

Now, Tim Kelly plans to speed up the tempo and going to an offensive system with new terminology and more multiplicity. Whether it be the Titans players or Mike Vrabel himself, we have heard throughout organized team activities about how different things are.

When Kelly was promoted to offensive coordinator, there was a level of skepticism as some thought a hire from outside the organization made more sense. There is some logic there, but there were also reasons for optimism that were far too overlooked as well.

The areas where Kelly was most involved with last season's offense where some of the areas where it performed it's best. Vrabel mentioned three areas where Kelly was asked to assist the most and he mentioned early-down passing, red zone and tight ends. All three areas gave the Titans their best results.

TD rate in goal-to-go last year

94% - TEN
93%
92%
91%
90%
89%
88%
87%
86%
85% - DET, DAL
84%
83% - MIA
82% - PHI, NYG
81%
80% - ARI
79% - KC
78%
77% - PIT, CAR
76% - NYJ
75% - JAX
74% - NO, CIN
73%
72% - TB
71% - BUF, CLE, DEN, SEA
70% - MIN
69%
68% - LV, LAR
67%
66% - LAC
65% -…
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) June 3, 2023

If we focus on the red zone we can see why Kelly's impact could have led to a promotion. The Titans were the sixth-best team in the NFL at scoring once entering the red zone in 2022 and as seen in the tweet above, were nearly unstoppable once they broke the ten-yard line. Scoring a touchdown 94% of the time.

Kelly's new offense won't need to be that productive in all areas of the field to be successful, but if Kelly can simply manage to get the Titans' potent red zone offense to that area more often than in 2022, the Titans should be on their way to hitting their ceiling in 2023.

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