Numbers Show Trading Down, Not Up, The Wise Move

NASHVILLE - The numbers don't lie, and those numbers, according to ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder, indicate that trading down, not up, in rounds over the last ten NFL drafts has been the better move.

While Walder proclaims this is an overly simplified way of looking at the question, in one of the tweets he shared last week, the numbers still support him that 71% of teams who trade back come out on the better end of the deal.

This is pick-for-pick trades in the first round over the last 10 years.

The trade down team “won” 71% of the time, “ties” excluded.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 13, 2023

That's the case, even though Walder says two factors work against the team trading down. The trade-down team often receives future draft picks, meaning they generate less AV (Approximate Value) than a pick given up immediately. At the same time, quarterbacks who play, regardless of actual performance, tend to receive a higher AV score, and first-round trades are often for quarterbacks.

That 71% comes despite the fact that it has two factors working against it:

1. The trade down team often receives future draft picks, which means it has had less time to generate AV than the pick given up immediately.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 13, 2023

2. QBs that play -- even if they play poorly -- tend to receive a high AV scores and first-round trade ups often are for quarterbacks.
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) April 13, 2023

Of the three potential options for the Tennessee Titans in round one, I've been a proponent of trading back and wrote about it just last week in an article available here.

Having read these tweets and seen these numbers, I'm even more locked into the idea that the Titans should not trade up for a quarterback. Also, if there is not a player they are convinced is a first-round talent at No.11, then the move is to trade back and add more capital to their draft.

The Titans are a team in need of top-level talent. There is a better-than-average chance they find one of them at No.11, but if, for instance, the quarterback they want, the top two tackle prospects, and the top receivers are all gone, and the Titana aren't sold on any of the remaining players that high up, then trading down is their move.

Let me put it another way. As a fan, would you rather have one future Hall of Fame caliber player at one position (not a quarterback) at left tackle or three outstanding players at multiple positions like left tackle, center, and receiver?

That's a simple one, though I'm not always right. Throw in that 71% of the teams that have traded down over the last ten draft cycles have been the perceived winners of those trades, and I'm ready to fall back for more selections.

Regardless of Walder's analytics, or my comments, the debate of what the Titans should do will rage on for another ten days.

Those ten days can pass quickly enough!

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