Looking Ahead (Not Back) to Determine Strength of Schedule

Trying to forecast an NFL team’s strength of schedule for the coming season can be a foolish endeavor.

Most such calculations are based solely on teams’ records from the previous year, when in reality, club rosters undergo varying levels of transformation every offseason.

Take the Jacksonville Jaguars as an example. Factoring them into a 2022 strength-of-schedule equation based only on the team that finished 3-14 last season would not make much sense. Jacksonville revamped its roster by signing 10 free agents to contracts worth up to $266 million, per Spotrac. No one is saying the Jaguars are on their way to the Super Bowl, but they should at least be better than the awful squad that lost eight of their last nine games in 2021.

With that in mind, here’s what seems to be a more accurate way to gauge the strength of schedule for teams in 2022, one that popped on to Twitter earlier this week.

The originator of this 2022 strength-of-schedule forecast, who is the co-creator of @nflfastR, based his calculations on more current team evaluations, not last year’s final records. He used DraftKings Sportsbook’s estimated win totals for teams in 2022 – win totals that were projected after the big free-agent signings had taken place.

The Tennessee Titans, according to this projection, will have the 18th-most difficult strength of schedule in 2022, with Tennessee’s opponents expected to post a combined .506 winning percentage. That would have to be considered good news for the Titans, especially since they finished with the best record in the AFC last season at 12-5.

On a more disappointing note, the Indianapolis Colts – the team most likely to challenge Tennessee atop the AFC South – are forecast to face the 30th-most difficult strength of schedule in 2022. Indianapolis is predicted to face opponents with a combined winning percentage of just .479. Only the Giants and Eagles’ opponents are expected to be weaker, both at a winning percentage of .476.

And if you’re wondering how DraftKings envisions the Titans’ season panning out this year, the gambling website has given them an over/under win projection of 9.5.

That might sound frustrating to Titans fans, but if so, you might want to consider dropping a dollar or two on the home team.

The Titans are one of only two teams (the Saints are the other) who have not gone under their predicted win totals in any of the last five years, per Sharp Football. The most recent example came in 2021, when the Titans’ projected win total was also 9.5.