Would (or Should) Titans Alter Offensive Approach?

NASHVILLE – Over the past four seasons, the Tennessee Titans have smashed head-first into the preferred analytics of the pass-happy NFL.

They’ve run the football more often than any other team under Mike Vrabel, and they’ve had plenty of success doing so.

But at least a couple of questions come to mind looking ahead to 2022, now that the team has added passing-game coordinator Tim Kelly, traded for wide receiver Robert Woods and signed tight end Austin Hooper. The Titans are likely to add another wide receiver in the first two days of the draft later this month as well.

One question: Will the Titans alter their run-heavy strategy to some degree, especially after All-Pro running back Derrick Henry underwent foot surgery last season?

The other question: How much should the Titans alter their offensive strategy, given the team’s winning ways over the past four years and its current personnel?

“We believe in a certain style of play,” Vrabel said earlier in the offseason. “We believe in a physical offense that’s going to be able to withstand four quarters and the rigors of a football season. Derrick’s certainly at the forefront of helping us do those things.”

It’s easy to bash the Titans for employing too much of a Neanderthal-like offense, given how often the team has hammered Henry into – and through – the defensive line since Vrabel arrived and Henry became a full-time starter.

In those four years, their percentage of running the football has looked like this: second-highest in the NFL in 2021 (48.8 percent running plays); third-highest in 2020 (50.3 percent); third-highest in 2019 (48.8 percent); and second-highest in 2018 (48.5 percent).

Passing the football on early downs? Please. Those Titans figures have been even more extreme compared to the rest of the NFL.

The Titans were 32nd in early down pass rate last season, 32nd in 2020, 30th in 2019 and 31st in 2018, per Sharp Football.

That’s no way to win a Super Bowl these days, scream the critics.

It’s a fair argument, considering the passing-game success of recent Super Bowl participants like the Rams, Bengals, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Patriots among others

But before you start hammering the coffee table and demanding more pass plays, consider how successful the Titans have been using their unique Henry-centric model over the past four seasons.

Since 2018, the Titans: have a 41-24 record; have four straight winning seasons; have won two straight division titles; have advanced to the playoffs three straight times; and have won two postseason games (of five). They’ve finished top 10 in the league in points twice in the last three seasons and top 10 in first downs in each of the last two seasons.

That’s pretty impressive stuff for a bunch of Neanderthals.

It Isn't Over With a Bad Start

Let’s crush a popular myth while we’re at it here as well – the one that says the Titans, because of their run-first and run-heavy offense, are doomed when they fall behind.

Au contraire.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill, despite his well-documented struggles in 2021, has posted 13 game-winning drives since arriving on the scene in 2019, second in the NFL only to Las Vegas’ Derek Carr (14).

Not good enough for you?

Since 2018, they’ve won 10 times when trailing at halftime (10-20 overall), tied for the third-most come-from-behind victories in the league in those situations. Since 2018, they’ve also won 10 times when trailing after three quarters (10-21 overall), the most come-from-behind victories in the league.

So, it hardly seems the right move – assuming Henry can return to full strength -- to radically change the offense in 2022.

Might the acquisitions of Woods and Hooper, in addition to what may be coming via the draft, alter the run-heavy offense to at least some degree? Probably so. That was the aim of acquiring Julio Jones last year, after all.

The coaching-staff addition of Kelly, who’s expected to bring a Jim Schwartz-like presence to that side of the ball, should mean more attention is paid to the passing game as well. Otherwise, what would have been the point of bring him on board?

But don’t expect Kelly’s input to result in a huge stylistic changes.

“He’ll have conversations with me and (offensive coordinator) Todd Downing about situations, and what we may want to do,” Vrabel said. “That’s the role. This isn’t to come in … It will be to enhance and help us where we feel like we need help. Or maybe there are some concepts or some decisions we have to make, or `How have you guys (done this)?’ or `What are some plays we don’t currently run that we would want to use?’”

Will we ever see the Titans throw the ball around the park like some of the league’s flashiest teams?

Probably at some point, when the offense isn’t running through Henry and when the quarterback of the future is taking snaps.

But in the meantime, the Titans could do far worse than regularly running the football down opponents’ throats.

Predictable? Maybe so. But predictably successful as well.