Henry Showed Signs of Decline Before Injury

NASHVILLE – In most ways, the first eight games of Derrick Henry’s 2021 season looked a lot like his previous two years.

He was leading the NFL – by a wide margin – in rushing yards before he was injured, was on pace to smash his own marks for carries and touchdowns, and looked as if he might once again top the 2,000-yard mark.

But according to the calculations of at least two analytics sites, Next Gen Stats and Pro Football Focus, Henry’s performance in those pre-injury contests represented a decline – based on Henry’s very high standards – in some categories.

Just how much credence the Titans give those numbers – if any -- is unclear, but with a runner who’s carried the football as often as Henry over the past few years, there’s always the looming question of when the wear and tear starts to show.

Did that happen in the first eight games of 2021? And did all those carries – 1,001 since 2019 (playoffs included) – play a part in the fractured foot that forced Henry to have surgery and miss the last nine games of the regular season?

The answers might go a long way toward determining whether the Henry-centric offense will resurface in 2022 or whether coaches feel a need to tweak things. The Titans ran the football on 48.8 percent of their offensive plays last season second-highest in the league) and have finished either second or third in that category ever since Henry became the featured back in 2017.

“We will do whatever we think gives us the best chance to win right now,” coach Mike Vrabel said when asked if he envisioned the offense looking similar in 2022. “Right now, we are not there (in terms of making decisions). We will go back and evaluate every run and look at its efficiency. Look at every pass. Look at every screen. Look at every bootleg. Same thing on defense.”

Henry averaged 117 rushing yards per game and was better than a touchdown per contest through the first eight weeks of last season. So, it’s clear the 6-foot-3, 247-pound back was still operating at an elite level.

So where was the potential evidence of decline? Here are some examples:

• Next Gen Stats tracks a stat called Rushing Yards Over Expected, which is defined as the difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays.

Henry led the NFL in yards over expected in 2019 (305 yards) and 2020 (411 yards), but he produced just 11 yards over expectation last season. Looking at it another way, he gained basically what his blocking afforded him in the eyes of Next Gen Stats, based on the location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders when he was given the ball.

Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor led the NFL with 481 last season followed by Cleveland’s Nick Chubb at 269.

• Pro Football Focus tracks yards after contact, which is a pretty self-explanatory stat.

In 2019, Henry ranked first in the league among backs with at least 100 carries, averaging 4.16 yards per carry after contact. In 2020, Henry was first once again among backs with at least 100 carries, averaging 3.85 yards per carry after contact. But in 2021, Henry’s average yards after contact dropped by more than half a yard -- to 3.28 -- which ranked 10th among backs with at least 100 carries.

• Pro Football Focus gives every running back an “Elusive Rating,” a PFF signature stat that measures the success and impact of a runner with the ball, independent of the blocking.

In 2019, Henry’s grade was 77.3, tied for fifth in the NFL among backs with at least 100 carries. In 2020, it was 73.7, good for fifth. But in Henry’s eight games last season, his elusive rating dropped to 49.8, which ranked 27th among backs with at least 100 carries. One of those who ranked above him was teammate D’Onta Foreman, who was 19th at 55.8.

What do the changes in those three advanced statistical categories mean?

Maybe nothing in the minds of the Titans, who might disagree with the findings of Next Gen Stats and PFF.

Maybe other factors must be considered for at least some of the categories such as the blocking of the offensive line, which receivers were available to take pressure off Henry, and the fact Henry usually picks up steam as the season progresses.

Still, when it comes to a giant of a man who racked up so many carries over the years, it does seem to beg the question as to whether Henry was starting to be affected by wear and tear last season. Might that also have contributed to the foot fracture, and might it impact Henry moving forward?

Not in the mind of his coach.

“No,” Vrabel said. “I didn’t get that sense from any doctor or anything. I think he is fully healed, and I know he is fully healed. I know he will have a great offseason. We will try to use him to win football games.”