Every Vikings free agent and their odds to return to Minnesota in 2025

GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings have their work cut out for them when it comes to reloading the roster this offseason. Minnesota has plenty of cap space, but it also has the most snaps entering free agency of any team in the NFL. There are all kinds of decisions to make about which players the team will attempt to re-sign and which ones they're comfortable with losing.
For a fun little thought exercise, let's go through every single Vikings unrestricted free agent and hand out a percentage of likelihood that they'll be back for another season in purple in 2025. These are going to be totally speculative estimations — and the beauty of probability is that I won't technically be wrong if I give a player a 10 percent chance to return and it ends up happening. I didn't say 0 percent, did I?
QB Sam Darnold: 20 percent
Darnold is obviously the most important decision by a good margin. It's certainly not impossible that he returns on a franchise tag or relatively team-friendly short-term deal, but it also seems significantly more likely that he gets a big contract elsewhere in free agency and the Vikings roll with J.J. McCarthy.
RB Aaron Jones: 45 percent
The Vikings could choose to run it back on another one-year deal with the 30-year-old Jones, who had over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns this season. They could also look to get younger at the position by drafting a back in the first few rounds.
CB Byron Murphy Jr: 60 percent
I expect re-signing Murphy to be a major priority for the Vikings, but Adofo-Mensah and company always have a certain price point they're not willing to exceed. After six interceptions and a Pro Bowl selection, there's a chance Murphy could land a deal on the open market the Vikings won't match.
S Camryn Bynum: 30 percent
The Vikings love Bynum, who they drafted in the fourth round back in 2021. He was a solid deep safety for Brian Flores and brought excellent vibes (and marketing) with his elaborate celebrations. But they may not want to give a big second contract to a good-not-great safety, especially with Theo Jackson on the roster as a potential in-house replacement. Harrison Smith's retirement decision could be a factor here.
LT Cam Robinson: 5 percent
It's hard to see a world where Robinson is back. He'll want starting left tackle money, and the Vikings have their stud left tackle coming back from injury this year. The only unlikely way Robinson stays is if he wants to take a team-friendly deal and transition to guard.
CB Stephon Gilmore: 20 percent
Assuming the 34-year-old Gilmore wants to play a 14th NFL season, the safe bet is he changes teams for a fifth consecutive offseason. Even with the Vikings having holes to fill at corner, another one-year deal for Gilmore probably doesn't make a ton of sense for their timeline.
CB Shaq Griffin: 35 percent
I'll go a bit higher with Griffin, who is younger and cheaper than Gilmore. He could be a solid option to bring back and compete for a starting job with someone like Mekhi Blackmon. More likely is that he moves on.
OLB Pat Jones: 10 percent
This feels like the D.J. Wonnum situation last offseason. Jones was useful for the Vikings on his rookie contract, recording a career-high seven sacks in 2024, and now the former third-round pick will probably get a decent deal from a new team that hopes he can replicate that production. The Vikings have Dallas Turner, Gabe Murphy, and Bo Richter waiting in the wings at OLB behind starters Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel.
DT Jerry Tillery: 25 percent
Tillery was underwhelming as one of the main members of the Vikings' defensive tackle rotation. They should be looking to upgrade and land a three-technique who can really rush the passer.
DT Jihad Ward: 35 percent
The same can be said of Ward, though he's maybe a better fit on the 2025 roster as a pass-rush specialist. His 31 pressures easily led all Vikings DTs. The man known as "Haddy" is well-liked in the locker room.
G Dalton Risner: 30 percent
The Vikings could try to upgrade as many as all three of their interior offensive line starters (Blake Brandel and Garrett Bradbury being the others). But Risner, who is solid in pass protection, is an option to return on a third consecutive one-year deal. His run-blocking struggles hurt his chances.
QB Daniel Jones: 40 percent
This one is conditional on Darnold not returning. If the Vikings are going with McCarthy, they'll need a veteran backup, and Jones makes plenty of sense after spending the last six weeks of the season on Minnesota's practice squad. He could have interest elsewhere, though.
QB Nick Mullens: 25 percent
Mullens, who has been with the Vikings for the last three seasons, is another option as the backup if Darnold is gone. He doesn't have the upside of someone like Jones, but he certainly knows the offense. Whether he's back may depend on how he feels about being QB3.
DT Jonathan Bullard: 65 percent
The Vikings have signed Bullard to a one-year deal in each of the last three offseasons. What's one more? He's adequate as a run-stopping DT who plays on early downs and eats up blockers while offering basically nothing as a pass rusher.
TE Johnny Mundt: 60 percent
Kevin O'Connell once called Mundt the best No. 3 tight end in the NFL. If he's fine with reprising that role for another $2 million, he'll probably be back, especially with Nick Muse gone. If he wants (and receives) an opportunity to potentially be a No. 2 TE somewhere, the Vikings will have to replace him.
Stay up to date on all things Vikings by bookmarking Minnesota Vikings On SI, subscribing to our YouTube channel, and signing up to receive our free Vikings newsletter.
WR Brandon Powell: 30 percent
Powell was solid during Justin Jefferson's injury absence in 2023, but he caught a total of seven passes this past season and offered very little as a punt returner. The Vikings could look to upgrade.
WR Trent Sherfield: 70 percent
It feels like a no-brainer to bring back Sherfield as the No. 4 or 5 receiver. He only had eight catches this season, but he's tenacious as a run blocker and outstanding on special teams.
RB Cam Akers: 50 percent
O'Connell is not shy about how much he loves Akers. Whether it's alongside Jones or a highly-drafted rookie, it would make sense to retain Akers as a complementary option who the Vikings can trust to be in the right spots and pop an occasional big play. But depending on what happens, he could seek a larger opportunity elsewhere.
CB Fabian Moreau: 20 percent
The veteran journeyman Moreau, who was the Vikings' CB4 this season, is another option for cheap cornerback depth. Frankly, I'm just throwing numbers at the wall at this point (though I suppose I've been doing that the entire time).
LB Kamu Grugier-Hill: 35 percent
Grugier-Hill was the Vikings' No. 3 linebacker behind Blake Cashman and Ivan Pace Jr. this season. He snagged a couple interceptions and played well on special teams. He could potentially retain those responsibilities in 2025; the Vikings don't seem to trust Brian Asamoah II very much.
T David Quessenberry: 40 percent
Quessenberry has been the Vikings' swing tackle for the past couple seasons. Whether or not he's back probably depends on how they feel about 2024 sixth-rounder Walter Rouse stepping into that role.
G Dan Feeney: 20 percent
Feeney was maybe the most forgettable player on the entire 53-man roster this season. He was a healthy scratch for much of the year and didn't play a single offensive snap. The Vikings could bring him back, but they also have Ed Ingram and Michael Jurgens as younger interior depth.