Points will be at a premium in Vikings-Browns London game, Vegas says

Points might be difficult to come by for both the Vikings and the Browns in Sunday's game at London's Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Both offenses have significant question marks. Both defenses are menacing. As a result, the Vegas over/under for the game is just 36.5 points at most sportsbooks — and as low as 35.5 at places like ESPN Bet and FanDuel.

For those who may not be familiar with the world of gambling totals, those numbers are extremely low. The best way to demonstrate that is to put it in some context, via Stathead's tracking of game over/unders over the years.

How low is this week's total?

The previous lowest Vegas total for a game in this NFL season was 38 for the Steelers-Jets matchup in Week 1. In classic fashion, that one wound up being a 66-point shootout. Texans-Titans in Week 4 was at 39.5, making it the only other game with a total below 40 this September. That one went under in a 26-0 Houston victory. Vikings-Steelers was tied for fifth-lowest at 41 points (45 were scored).

We can also look back further than this season. This is easily the lowest over/under for a Vikings game in the Kevin O'Connell era (since 2022). That mark was previously 39.5 in three different games. One of those three went under, while two went way over.

In fact, it's the lowest total in a Vikings game since at least a December 2019 game against the Bears, which had a 36.5 over/under. If you use the 35.5 total for this game, it's the lowest since a December 2010 game against Chicago (the one where Corey Wootton injured Brett Favre in the final game of his career), which had a total of just 33. Both of those contests went over. This is by no means gambling advice, but the last five Vikings games with a sub-37 total have gone over.

It's also the lowest over/under ever for an international game, according to ESPN. This will be the 51st NFL game outside of United States borders.

The current O/U for Vikings-Browns is 35.5 is the lowest for an NFL game this season and the lowest ever for an international game, per ESPN Research. Two very good defenses and two offenses with a ton of personnel changes.
— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) October 2, 2025

The Vikings are 3.5-point favorites in this game, which has an implied score of 19.5-16 using the 35.5 over/under.

Why the projected total is so meager

The reason for the low total is, quite simply, that both offenses might be in over their heads against the opposing defense on Sunday.

The Vikings have typically had high-powered offenses under O'Connell, but this year's attack has been shaky with both J.J. McCarthy and Carson Wentz at quarterback. Although they've averaged 25.5 points per game, those numbers are skewed a bit.

The Vikings had six points going into the fourth quarter in Week 1. They finished with six points in Week 2. They dropped 48 on an awful Bengals team the following week, but their defense scored two touchdowns and created some short fields. Last week, they again had six points through three quarters before the offense got going in the fourth.

A better stat to look at is Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, which measures effectiveness on a per-play basis. The Vikings are 28th in that metric.

Meanwhile, the Browns are ninth in EPA per play allowed on defense, and they have easily the best PFF team defense grade in the league. Myles Garrett is perhaps the most dominant defensive force in the NFL. DT Maliek Collins and LBs Devin Bush and Carson Schwesinger have also earned elite grades. Rookie DT Mason Graham, the fifth overall pick this year, has a ton of talent. The secondary includes standouts like Denzel Ward and Grant Delpit. The Browns held the Packers to 10 points in their upset win in Week 3.

Oh, and this final bit is important: the Vikings' offensive line is absolutely ravaged with injuries. O'Connell's team will almost certainly be down three starters on Sunday in left guard Donovan Jackson, center Ryan Kelly, and right tackle Brian O'Neill. That means Justin Skule blocking Garrett at times. The Vikings might also be without backup center Michael Jurgens, which would cause Blake Brandel to play center in a game for the first time and for undrafted rookie Joe Huber to see his first NFL action as the starter at LG.

Wentz was sacked six times last week in Dublin and could be under major duress again this week.

Meanwhile, the Browns might be in for an even greater challenge on offense. They're 30th in EPA per play through four weeks with Joe Flacco at QB, and now they're making a change. Third-round rookie Dillon Gabriel is set to receive his first NFL start on Sunday.

Gabriel's task in his first real game will be going against Brian Flores' uniquely complex defensive scheme. Largely due to their Week 3 performance, the Vikings' defense is first in opponent EPA per play this season by a healthy margin. They thrive on blitzes and fake blitzes and doing everything possible to confuse even experienced veteran quarterbacks before and after the snap. It could be a long day for Gabriel, who is a smaller QB lacking high-level arm talent (according to pre-draft scouting reports).

The Browns are also without starting wide receiver Cedric Tillman and might continue to be without right tackle Jack Conklin, who has missed the last few games.

Since Flores and Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz stepped into their current roles in 2023, these two teams are No. 1 and No. 2 in defensive EPA per play by quite a bit. The Browns are at -0.065, the Vikings are at -0.064, and the third-place Ravens are at -0.047. Throw in a depleted Vikings offensive line and a Browns QB making his first NFL start, and you can understand why this game comes with a remarkably low over/under.

This one might finish with something like a 17-13 score. Or, because it's football and impossible to predict, maybe an unlikely shootout will break out in London. We'll find out on Sunday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How low is this week's total?

Why the projected total is so meager

More Vikings coverage