Are we sure Kevin O'Connell deserves the 'offensive guru' label?

Kevin O'Connell arrived in Minnesota in February 2022, fresh off a Super Bowl victory with the Rams, with a reputation as a Sean McVay-trained offensive guru. A savant, a whiz on that side of the ball. Those aren't labels he ever gave himself, by any means, but that was the perception, and that remains the perception four years later. The generally-held belief is still that the Vikings have a mastermind leading their offense.

Are we sure he deserves those (very unofficial) labels? Four years is a pretty big sample size, and although the Vikings have won plenty of regular season games during O'Connell's tenure, their overall offensive metrics are extremely underwhelming. Just look at where they've ranked in two prominent all-encompassing metrics over the past four years (hat tip to Nick Olson, who pointed this out).

2022: 18th in EPA* per play, 20th in DVOA*
2023: 18th in EPA per play, 23rd in DVOA
2024: 14th in EPA per play, 15th in DVOA
2025: 28th in EPA per play, 29th in DVOA

*Expected Points Added
*Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average

Only once in four years have the Vikings had an above-average offense, according to those two useful efficiency metrics. And even then, it was barely in the top half. They've never cracked the top 13 in either statistic, and the 2025 team — which had another awesome defense under Brian Flores — was doomed by having one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

Kevin O'Connell | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

If you're curious about who (arguably) deserves more credit for the Vikings' success, here are their ranks on defense during the O'Connell era.

2022: 16th in EPA per play, 25th in DVOA (Ed Donatell was DC)
2023: 17th in EPA per play, 11th in DVOA (Flores takes over)
2024: 2nd in EPA per play, 2nd in DVOA
2025: 3rd in EPA per play, 3rd in DVOA

Now, to be fair to O'Connell, the offensive numbers need a little bit of context and unpacking. The Vikings have started eight different quarterbacks in his tenure: Kirk Cousins, Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer. They've never had a top-tier QB leading the way, with the closest thing being 2023 Cousins pre-Achilles and 2024 Darnold (outside of a few awful games). Injuries have been unfortunate at times.

A major issue is that O'Connell's Vikings have never figured out how to build an efficient running game. In 2022, they were 10th in EPA per dropback and 29th in EPA per rush. In 2023, they were 18th (11th before Cousins got hurt) and 22nd. In 2024, they were 12th in EPA per dropback and 25th in EPA per rush. This past year, they were 26th and 30th. They've been good (not elite) in the pass game when they've gotten capable quarterback play, but not once in the last four years have the Vikings ranked higher than 22nd in EPA per rush, which reflects pretty poorly on O'Connell.

Four years in, there are clearly a lot of things O'Connell does well as a head coach. He's a great leader, motivator, and culture setter. He can build an explosive passing attack when he has the quarterback to match. He generally makes good decisions in close games. But the overall numbers simply don't support the idea that KOC is some incredible "offensive guru." If the Vikings are going to bounce back in 2026, they'll need a lot more from him and his staff on that side of the ball — especially if Flores winds up elsewhere this offseason.

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