Kevin O'Connell addresses criticism over his short-yardage play calling

Nine games into this season, the Vikings have had 36 plays on third or fourth and short, which we'll define here as needing three or fewer yards to move the chains. This sample excludes punts and field goals and QB kneels. These are plays where the Vikings are actively trying to pick up the first down in a late-down, short-yardage situation.

They've run the ball 13 times in those situations (36 percent). They've thrown it 23 times. And they've converted a first down on just 14 of the 36, good for a 39 percent mark that is easily the worst in the NFL. In 31st place are the 1-8 Titans, who are converting on 47.5 percent of those plays.

The Vikings are one of just nine teams with more pass attempts than rushes in those situations. Only the Cowboys and Lions have a higher pass rate in third or fourth and short. But those two teams have justified the approach by converting on over 64 percent of those plays. The Vikings have not.

We can dive even deeper into the sample to reveal why fans have grown frustrated with Kevin O'Connell's play calling in those specific situations. On the 23 passing plays from the Vikings, they've converted five first downs or touchdowns (21.7 percent). J.J. McCarthy, specifically, is 0 for 9 with four sacks and an interception on such plays. That includes three incompletions and a pick in last week's loss to the Ravens.

J.J. McCarthy — Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

The other part of the sample is just as damning. When the Vikings run the ball on third or fourth and short, they're 9 for 13 in converting first downs (69.2 percent). McCarthy botched a snap against the Falcons and Jordan Mason has gotten stuffed a few times, but for the most part, the Vikings have had success running the ball when they need to gain 1-3 yards on a late down. And yet, for whatever reason, they haven't done that very often. O'Connell didn't call a single run play on any third or fourth down against Baltimore.

To be sure, nine games isn't a very big sample size. But this has been a trend over O'Connell's entire tenure. Since 2022, in the regular season, the Vikings have had 259 plays using the same criteria we used above. Their first down rate is 53.7 percent, which is ahead of only the Jets and Dolphins. On such plays, the Vikings have passed the ball 176 times (68 percent) and converted on 45.5 percent of those throws. On the 83 plays where they've run the ball, they've converted 71.1 percent of the time.

Those numbers are jarring and indisputable. Success in those situations has been an issue for O'Connell since he arrived in Minnesota, and the evidence overwhelmingly points to his play calling as being part of the problem.

On Wednesday, O'Connell gave a long answer when I asked him about that exact thing. Here's his entire response.

"I think first and foremost, in any healthy discussion, I think you've got to establish what are we talking about from a standpoint of third and ones, third and twos, third and threes, third and two to five," he said. "How defenses are going to align based upon the front structures that they want to get in. I think we've had multiple runs called in those situations where parameters maybe take us out of those looks, or we have a run-pass solution on them and we've converted, or we've had multiple run plays called on early downs where we've thrown the ball and got an 11-yard completion, got a 9-yard completion, and we look at those as statistically part of the run game.

"I know that doesn't necessarily fall under that category as a whole. But there's no question, we've had success, specifically this year (running) in the short-yardage situations. There's been a couple schematical things that have caused us to not convert. But more than likely, when we get a hat on a hat and give the ball to JP (Mason) or Aaron (Jones) we've converted those.

"And I think it's just a matter of once again, like in the moment, whether it's the third-and-1 chance against Atlanta early on in the year, or the third and 1 from the other day. As a head coach and play caller, I can't really make the decision based upon missing an open player or having Justin (Jefferson) one-on-one for really the only time all day, and that ending up — the last thing you think that's going to do is end up in a in an interception where you have that run play in mind for fourth and 1.

"Play calling is something that we put a lot of work in (on) as a staff, and I put a lot of work into it, and it's a results-based thing, play-to-play, game-to-game. Well aware of that. But that does not mean that I'm not always evaluating the best way to play each and every snap, sequence of games, and ultimately, what's best for this team this year. And I'm doing that, and I think you'll see some things reflected in that, but also the defense has a hand in it as well. And the last thing you want to do is just (run the ball) for the sake of doing it and then have it be not as productive as you would hope just to get some things in a statistical column somewhere."

Here's the question I asked Kevin O’Connell about short-yardage play calling and his lengthy answer.

"The last thing you want to do is (run the ball) for the sake of doing it and have it be not as productive as you would hope, just to get some things in a statistical column." pic.twitter.com/tZJEaN9N9D
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) November 12, 2025

It's fair to acknowledge that play calling is a nuanced, high-level thing that has to take into account the defensive look the Vikings are getting, among other factors. In regards to one specific play that has drawn fans' ire — the third and 1 deep shot to Jefferson that was picked off by Marlon Humphrey — I fully believe that was the right call to make. They got single coverage on the best receiver in the world with no safety help over the top. It's a play that has worked before in that situation, as O'Connell mentioned on Wednesday, and you'd never expect Jefferson to get tripped up and have that play result in a pick.

But when the data from not just this season, but the last four seasons, is as overwhelming as it is, something has to change. O'Connell has to make the adjustment and find more opportunities to run the ball in late-down, short-yardage scenarios, because the current approach simply isn't working.

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