The hidden metric that shows the Vikings might be ready to break through

Perhaps one of the most overlooked metrics through 10 weeks of the NFL season is how the Vikings' strength of victory compares to their division rivals. Did you know that Minnesota's strength of victory is .472?

The only teams still in the playoff picture with a higher SOV than the Vikings are Philadelphia (.516) and Pittsburgh (.511). Minnesota lost to both in competitive games when the roster was depleted with injuries.

Strength of victory — the combined winning percentage of all the teams a team has beaten — might not mean much on its own, but it gives a sense of how a team like the Vikings, despite its 4-5 record, has an ability to take down teams with good records.

Maybe Minnesota, despite its flaws, is on the cusp of a breakthrough? They have, in fact, beaten the first- and second-place teams in the NFC North. The Vikings are in the thick of the wild-card race, and because they're 2-0 in the division, they still have a chance to win the NFC North despite being two games behind division-leading Detroit (6-3) and Chicago (6-3).

Chicago, who the Vikings host on Sunday, has an SOV of .272. That's the second-lowest SOV in the NFL (Dallas is worse at .241). Detroit has a .436 SOV, and Green Bay is at .435.

Detroit's wins this season:

Crushed the Bears 52-21 in Week 2
Narrowly won at Baltimore in Week 3
Blasted the two-win Browns 34-10 in Week 4
Dumped three-win Cincinnati 37-24 in Week 5
Beat 6-3 Tampa Bay 24-9 in Week 7
Slammed three-win Washington 44-22 in Week 9

To be fair, no one here is arguing that the Vikings are better than Detroit, even though Minnesota did leave the Motor City with a win two weeks ago. The Lions are a juggernaut, but their SOV isn't as good as the Vikings'.

Green Bay's wins this season:

Toppled Detroit 27-13 at home in Week 1
Took down Washington 27-18 on Thursday night in Week 2
Beat three-win Cincy 27-18 in Week 5
Edged three-win Arizona 27-23 in Week 6
Won at five-win Pittsburgh 35-25 in Week 7

They beat the Lions in the opener and then handled Washington when the Commanders were still relatively healthy. Since then, they've had one good win at Pittsburgh while losing two straight at home to Carolina and Philly. The Packers are obviously a strong team, but their offense is a mess.

Chicago's wins this season:

Beat three-win Dallas 31-14 in Week 3
Clipped the two-win Raiders 25-24 in Week 4
Edged three-win Washington 25-24 in Week 6
Took down one-win New Orleans 26-14 in Week 7
Needed a miracle to beat three-win Cincy in Week 9
Came back to beat the two-win, injured Giants in Week 10

The Bears probably aren't as good as their 6-3 record suggests they are, but give them credit for finding ways to win.

Minnesota's wins this season:

A fourth-quarter comeback to beat Chicago 27-24 in the opener
Blasted the Joe Burrow-less Bengals 48-10 in Week 3
Edged the two-win Browns 21-17 in London in Week 5
Won at six-win Detroit 27-24 in Week 9

The Vikings do have an impressive SOV, but is it simply a product of a come-from-behind win at Soldier Field against a Bears team that might not be as good as its record indicates? That's the worry. But at the same time, how can anyone fairly judge the Vikings when they played so much of the season with so many injuries at quarterback and on the offensive line?

That's what makes Minnesota such a mystery. The defense is good overall, but excellent when Andrew Van Ginkel is on the field. He barely played in Week 3 and missed four straight games before returning in Week 9 at Detroit. J.J. McCarthy has been up and down, but he only has four starts to his name. The offensive line Minnesota constructed in the offseason hasn't played a single snap together this season, but that could change Sunday if Ryan Kelly returns from multiple concussions.

Are we about to see the Vikings break through? Like you, we wait with bated breath...

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