Vikings are once again victims of the NFL's flawed playoff format

If the NFL adopted a playoff format like the NBA, there would be a tremendous amount of drama in Week 18.

Dec 25, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; A general view inside the stadium during player introductions before the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

From 13-4 in 2022 to 7-10 in 2023, back to 14-3 in 2024 and possibly 9-8 in 2025, the Minnesota Vikings have been on a roller coaster since Kevin O'Connell was hired as head coach.

In 2022, the Vikings were the No. 3 seed as the NFC North champion. Philadelphia was the top seed at 14-3, while the 49ers earned the No. 2 seed at 13-4, winning a tiebreaker over Minnesota. In 2024, the NFL's playoff format entered the equation as the Vikings went 14-3 but did not win their division and had to play a road game in the first round of the playoffs as the No. 5 seed.

That was the latest example of a team with a great record going on the road because a division winner with a mediocre record landed a better seed. At 14-3, the Vikings finished tied with the Eagles for the second-best record in the conference, but the Lions, at 15-2, won the North to secure the No. 1 seed. With Philly at No. 2, the third and fourth seeds went to the South and West winners, the Rams and Bucs, who both finished 10-7.

It was similar to what happened to the 12-win Cowboys in 2022, when they made the playoffs as the No. 5 seed while the 8-9 Bucs got a home game as the No. 4 seed for winning the South. In 2023, the Eagles and Rams won 11 and 10 games, respectively, but hit the road in the playoffs because the 9-win Bucs won the South and the No. 4 seed.

This year, it's going to happen again, as the No. 1 seed and NFC West champion will be decided Saturday night when the Seahawks (13-3) face the 49ers (12-4). The loser gets the No. 5 seed, while the winner of Saturday's game between the Panthers (8-8) and Bucs (7-9) will win the South and get the No. 4 seed. It's the second straight year that Sam Darnold enters Week 18 with at least 13 wins but needs a win to avoid opening the playoffs on the road.

How long can the NFL continue to reward mediocre division winners without seriously considering a change to the playoff format? The NFL is flat-out overdue on adopting a format similar to the NBA, where the playoff seeds are determined by records. Division titles would be rewarded with nothing more than a banner to hang from the stadium rafters.

If the playoff format this season were based on top records, the Vikings would be playing for a spot in the postseason against Green Bay on Sunday. At 8-8, the Vikings have rallied with four consecutive wins, and there would be so much more to play for in the regular season finale.

In a world where the seven playoff spots were decided by record, the NFC would look like this entering Week 18 (assuming the Rams win Monday night):

1. Seattle Seahawks 13-3
2. San Francisco 49ers 12-4
3. Los Angeles Rams 12-4
4. Chicago Bears 11-5
5. Philadelphia Eagles 11-5
6. Green Bay Packers 9-6-1
7. Carolina Panthers 8-8
8. Minnesota Vikings 8-8
9. Detroit Lions 8-8
10. Dallas Cowboys 7-8-1
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9

The top six seeds would be clinched, but the Panthers, Vikings, Lions, Cowboys, and Buccaneers would all be playing for the final spot. Imagine a Week 18 where these games all mattered and were played simultaneously:

• Carolina at Tampa Bay
• Green Bay at Minnesota
• Dallas at NY Giants
• Detroit at Chicago

In that world, if the Bucs beat Carolina and the Vikings took down the Packers, Minnesota would clinch the No. 7 seed at 9-8.

If Carolina and Minnesota won and both finished 9-8, the tiebreaker would come down to the best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. In that case, the Vikings would be 7-5, so the next tiebreaker would be winning percentage against common opponents. In that case, the Panthers would win because they went 5-1 against Atlanta, Dallas, Green Bay, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle, compared to the Vikings being 2-4 versus those teams.

There could also be a scenario where the Vikings, Panthers, and Lions all finish 9-8, at which point the tiebreaker would again go to the Panthers after the Vikings knock out the Lions based on beating them twice in the regular season.

Alas, the only NFC teams fighting for a playoff spot in Week 18 are the Panthers and Bucs. That level of drama being left on the table by a flawed playoff format is astounding.

Last offseason, Detroit proposed that four division champs and three wild cards from each conference make the playoffs and be seeded by record. That format wouldn't help the Vikings this year, but it would've guaranteed them a top-three seed and a home game in last season's playoffs.

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