Aaron Judge Injury Causes Massive Change to Yankees Futures on Kalshi

Just ahead of the MLB Playoffs, the New York Yankees received rough injury news surrounding Aaron Judge, who suffered a calf strain, which is expected to sideline him through the Wild Card and possibly longer. Kalshi’s MLB market immediately cut Yankees futures prices
Prices dropped as soon as the injury hit. The Yankees' World Series price dropped from 12% to 9% while their AL Championship price went from 25% to 20%. A $10 trade profits $107.37 on their World Series price and $37.32 for the AL Championship.
New York Yankees futures prices - Kalshi
- World Series 9%
- AL Championship 20%
Aaron Judge injury update
On September 16 against the Minnesota Twins, Judge made a play in the outfield and suffered a calf strain. Doctors later called it a moderate strain. It fell short of a Grade 3 injury, which is a torn muscle. However, even a Grade 1 strain would require multiple weeks on the sidelines.
The Yankees placed Judge on the 10-day IL. He received a Platelet-Poor Plasma (PPP) injection to treat the injury and to speed healing.
This is Judge’s second major injury this season. In late April, he suffered a fractured right rib and played through the pain until the team shut him down on May 31. He returned to action on September 8 and played seven games before the calf strain.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone said he does not expect Judge back for the Wild Card Series, but he did not rule it out:
"You hear all the time with injuries, we get ranges," Boone said. "Two to four weeks, four to six, all these things. There are ranges for a reason, and we're at a point in the year where obviously we push it a little bit if that was in play. But that's a week away so I'm not expecting it, but I'm not ruling it out either."
Judge has a major impact on the Yankees success. In games he’s missed this season, the Yankees are 48-41. They are 41-25 in games that he’s played. The Yankees are gearing up for the Wild Card round, which begins on Tuesday, September 29.
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Sam has over six years of experience in the sports media industry with a focus on sports betting, covering lines, trends, shopping lines, and finding the most obscure betting specials. He joined SI as a part of their sports prediction market coverage. He’s a Florida State grad where he majored in Editing, Writing, and Media. He’s also covered college sports for The Sporting News.
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