AJ Brown to Patriots Graph Trending Up at Kalshi

At this point, it might not be a matter of “if” A.J. Brown is traded to the New England Patriots, but more of a “when” situation.

On Kalshi’s AJ Brown market, there are only five teams given a chance to land him with the Patriots leading with a healthy 80% ($10 risk to win $2.17). Kalshi gives him a 9% chance of remaining with the Eagles or retiring. Each of the Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, and Jacksonville Jaguars have less than a 5% chance on Kalshi. Every other team on the board has been given a less than 1% chance in acquiring AJ Brown ahead of next season.

Senior NFL insider for Sports Illustrated, Albert Breer, weighed in on the likelihood of Brown heading to New England, writing this about the trade:

"As for where he’s going, it always made sense for the Eagles to wait to 'agree to terms' until the last minute because things can change elsewhere (and already have with the (Rashee) Rice situation in Kansas City). But the Chiefs, Chargers, Bills, and Rams all had their shot at this already, and I think the final result will be what everyone’s treating as a fait accompli, and that’s Brown reuniting with Mike Vrabel in New England."

There has also been speculation that Howie Roseman and the Eagles front office are waiting until after June 1st to trade Brown away, as it would cut their cap hit in half and save them roughly $7 million.

Brown has been linked to New England for the better part of the offseason. New England was reportedly one of his preferred destinations, along with the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Fit in New England

Brown would automatically slot in as the X receiver in a pass-heavy offense that ranked in the top-5 last season with just over 250 pass yards per game. A complete turnaround from what Brown had been accustomed to in Philly, where they averaged a bottom-6 pass play percentage of 52.5%.

The Pats made a complementary move in signing Romeo Doubs from the Green Bay Packers. He will likely play the opposite side of the field if Brown lands in New England.

How The Market Moved

It’s been Patriots or bust since the market opened in February. New England immediately came in as the favorite before the market changed in favor of him remaining in Philly. It wasn’t until mid-March that the Patriots regained control of that top spot and have held on to it since.

Across four seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles from 2022-2025, Brown helped lead the Eagles to two NFC Championships and a Super Bowl while posting 5,034 receiving yards and 33 total touchdowns.

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