Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van Prediction Market Odds on Polymarket and Kalshi

A flyweight title bout is scheduled for UFC 331 as Joshua Van looks to defend his title against the former champion Alexandre Pantoja. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are leaning toward Van over Pantoja.

Kalshi’s UFC market prices Van at 56% and Pantoja at 44%. Polymarket’s UFC market gives Van 55% while Pantoja has 46%. A $10 trade on Kalshi profits $7.01 if Van wins and $11.86 on Pantoja. The same trades on Polymarket profit $8.18 on Van and $11.74 on Pantoja.

UFC 331: Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja - Kalshi

Joshua Van 56%
Alexandre Pantoja 44%

UFC 331: Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja - Polymarket

Joshua Van 55%
Alexandre Pantoja 46%

Van has advantages across the board

Nine of Van's 17 wins ended by KO/TKO, including three of his last four. In December, he knocked Pantoja out in the first round to win the belt.

Getting into the numbers, Van averages a dominant 8.43 significant strikes landed per minute at a 57% success rate and allows opponents to land just 43% of strikes against him. While Van’s striking is well above average, Pantoja averages 4.38 significant strikes per minute, however, at just a 50% success rate. Pantoja absorbs 3.88 significant strikes per minute at nearly a 50% clip.

Pantoja excels on the ground, where he has 12 career submission wins, including his last two. In his last win over Kai Kara-France, he went 3/6 on takedowns and held ground control for over seven minutes. Kara-France did find success in striking at a 66% clip for the bout.

For his career, Pantoja averages 2.79 takedowns per bout, but his 47% accuracy is no match for Van’s 75% takedown defense.

In Van’s five bouts since 2025, he’s been taken down in three of them. However, of 48 attempts to do so, just 13 have landed (27%).

UFC 331 takes place at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles with early prelims beginning at 5:30 p.m. EST and main card coverage at 9 p.m. on Paramount+.

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