Arch Manning Drops Slightly in Heisman Trophy Prediction Market on Kalshi

Horns are up, but Arch Manning’s Heisman market is trending down. In just over a week, Arch Manning’s Kalshi Heisman price dipped slightly to 11%.

Manning’s price was 12% just over a week ago. He remains the second-highest price on the board behind Notre Dame’s CJ Carr. A $10 trade on Manning to win the Heisman profits $75.54 at his current price.

2026 Heisman winner - Kalshi

CJ Carr 13%
Arch Manning 11%
Darian Mensah 8%
Julian Sayin 7%
Trinidad Chambliss 7%

Manning turned it around in the second half of last season and the Longhorns' bowl game, going 6-1 while throwing for 1,846 yards, 14 touchdowns and two interceptions and rushing for 205 yards and five more scores.

Sark’s comments push the price down

The Texas Longhorns held their first scrimmage Saturday, and head coach Steve Sarkisian shared his thoughts on Manning’s performance.

“I think he can play cleaner than he played today, and a little bit more efficient, a little bit more accurate,” Sarkisian said. “But there was also some high level plays that were made too. Again, it's the level of consistency that we're fighting for, and I've seen it the first week and a half.”

Sarkisian also said the first team looked a bit streaky, name dropping receivers Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo as well.

"I felt for Arch (Manning) and Ryan (Wingo) and Cam (Coleman) and Emmett (Mosley) because they played the first series, then they sat because I didn't want them to be live, and then they played one series in the red zone, and then they sat, and then they didn't come back and play until the second half,” Sarkisian said. “So it was a little up and down today."

Continued progression

Manning struggled in the first half of last season in his first year as full-time QB1. In his first six starts, he led the Longhorns to a 4-2 record, throwing for 1,317 yards, 12 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He added 194 yards and five rushing touchdowns as well.

Manning ended his first season as a full-time starter, throwing for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He ran for 399 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Manning and the Longhorns are back in action Week 1 on September 5th against Texas State at 3:30 p.m. EST.

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