Arch Manning Remains Massive Favorite in Kalshi NFL Draft Market

We’re only two games into the 2026 college football season, and the Arch Manning NFL Draft hype continues to ramp up. The hype jumped again after Texas beat Ohio State. Kalshi’s NFL Draft board gives Manning a 31% chance to go No. 1 overall.

Arch is the only player with a better than 20% chance to go No. 1. He’s been the favorite since the market first opened back in April. He came into this season at a 29% chance before his price bumped to 31% following Week 2. A $10 trade on Manning being drafted first overall in the 2027 NFL Draft profits $20.74.

2027 NFL Draft: First Overall - Kalshi

Arch Manning 31%
Dante Moore 17%
CJ Carr 15%
Darian Mensah 11%
Jeremiah Smith 10%

Backing up his name

Arch Manning has a chance to become the third Manning taken No. 1 overall, and fourth in the top-3 if you include his grandpa, Archie Manning. He was one of the most hyped high school prospects in recent history and has received praise as a future first overall pick since before he even took a snap in college.

The hype is not just the last name, as his play has backed it up. He’s 14-3 overall as a starter for Texas with over 4,200 passing yards and 35+ touchdowns through his 17 starts. He’s also rushed for 544 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Already high projections

Manning was eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft, and scouts and analysts widely ranked him as the No. 1 pick before he opted to return to Texas for another season. He finished last season with 3,163 passing yards, 26 passing touchdowns, and seven interceptions while adding 399 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs.

Through two games this season, Arch has 500 passing yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. At this rate, he’s on pace for 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns.

If drafted first overall, he’d be the fourth player in Texas Longhorns history along with Tommy Nobis, Earl Campbell, and Kenneth Sims. He’d also be the first since 1982.

We’ll get our next look at Arch in Week 3 as Texas hosts UTSA on September 19 at 8 p.m. EST in Austin.

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