Arsenal Big Prediction Market Favorites to Win Premier League, Man City, Man United Trending Down

Following the World Cup, the futbol world now turns to the Premier League, which kicks off on Friday, July 21. Kalshi’s Premier League market has Arsenal as the clear favorite to repeat as champions.

Arsenal leads by a wide margin, sitting with 45% at the top of the board and trending up as of late. Other notable contenders include Manchester City and Manchester United. In the latest price update, each saw its price drop. A $10 trade on Arsenal to repeat profits $11.37.

2026-27 Premier League winner - Kalshi

Arsenal 45%
Manchester City 21%
Liverpool 13%
Chelsea 12%
Manchester United 9%
Tottenham 4%
Aston Villa 2%

Building off momentum

In Kalshi’s eyes, the Premier League is Arsenal’s to lose after winning its first Premier League title since the 2003-2004 season. It was also Arsenal's fifth consecutive top-5 finish. They’re coming off a 2025 season where they finished with 85 points and a +44 goal differential to lead the league.

They enter the 2026-27 season with their roster fully intact, including Viktor Gyokeres, Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, and Martin Odegaard staying put. They added depth pieces in Bruno Guimaraes, Christos Tzolis, Piero Hincapie, and Illan Meslier to strengthen the midfield, attack, defense, and add goalkeeping depth.

Trending down

Manchester City is trending down as it enters its first season without Pep Guardiola as manager, with Enzo Maresca taking over. On top of a new manager, captain Rodri also departed, with Barcelona his likely destination.

Other than the manager turnover and some notable losses, the face of the club, Erling Haaland, remains. He’s coming off his third Premier League Golden Boot in four seasons and has shown no sign of slowing down. He was dominant in the World Cup.

As for Manchester United, there is still a sizeable gap between them and Arsenal and Man City. They finished last season with 71 points and 69 goals scored. Both sit behind the top two clubs. While they did finish third last season, many analysts tab them as ahead of schedule, considering they’re just two seasons beyond a 15th-place finish in 2024.

Arsenal kicks off the Premier League on Friday against Coventry City at 3 p.m. EST as the lone match for the day.

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