Bill Belichick Among Coaches Most Likely to Be "Out" Before September

The Bill Belichick experience in Chapel Hill hasn’t turned out the way many hoped for. Kalshi hints that the legendary, Super Bowl-winning coach could be out of North Carolina before September rolls around.

Kalshi’s college football market currently has Belichick priced at 7% near the top of the board to be out of his position by September.

Will Bill Belichick be “out” before September? - Kalshi

Yes 7%
No 94%

For the market to grade yes, Belichick would need either to get fired or to step down from his job by September 1, 2026. Trading $10 on him to be out by then profits $124.

Failed experiment

Many rushed to assume Belichick’s NFL dynasty would translate to college and let his six Super Bowls and three Coach of the Year awards blind them. That was not the case at all in his first season with North Carolina, as the team took several steps back.

In 2024, before Belichick's arrival, the team went 6-6 in the regular season, averaging 30.9 points and 406.7 yards per game while allowing 28.1 points and 375.8 yards. In 2025, the Tar Heels finished 4-8 and had the second-worst offense in the ACC (19.3 points, 288.8 yards).

A strong note that could potentially push him out before September is North Carolina’s Week 0 game on August 29, against TCU in Dublin, Ireland. A bad loss to TCU would give the Tar Heels a two-day window before September to cash the “yes” market.

It’s also worth noting that North Carolina put football GM Mike Lombardi on administrative leave ahead of the season. Belichick hired Lombardi when he took the Tar Heels' head coaching job.

The case to stay

Even with his early failures, there is still a case to keep him on the sidelines. In reality, Belichick hasn’t had a full offseason to show what he can do until this season. Now with a full offseason of training, building chemistry, and recruiting under his belt, only time will tell if there is any improvement.

His five-year, $50 million contract also comes into play, which fully guarantees the first three years. If UNC fires him without cause, the school must pay him $30 million for his first three seasons.

North Carolina kicks off the college football season at 12 p.m. EST in the first game of the year against TCU in Week 0 on August 29.

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