Bucked Colt: Anthony Richardson Expected to Be Traded by Prediction Markets

It’s growing more and more likely that Anthony Richardson will be traded away from the Indianapolis Colts at some point, either before the start of the NFL season or before the November 3rd trade deadline.

Kalshi is offering a market right now on which NFL players are going to be traded, with a December 1st, 2026, deadline set. Amongst those players, Anthony Richardson has one of the highest percentages to be traded at 88% ($10 risk to win $1.26). On the opposite end, he has a 64% ($10 risk to win $5.07) chance of not being traded.

This market is exactly what it seems. At 88%, there is a high chance that Richardson is moved by the Colts at some point before the market closes, while there is a 64% chance that he isn’t traded.

Rise & Fall Of AR5

The Colts drafted Richardson fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft to the surprise of many. However, he showed plenty of upside right away, throwing for 577 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in the first four games. He also added four rushing touchdowns on 136 rushing yards.

In Week 5 of his 2023 rookie campaign, Richardson suffered an AC joint sprain, which ultimately ended his season.

In 2024, it was clear that Richardson was not going to pan out after leading Indianapolis to a 6-5 record, throwing for 1,814 yards, eight touchdowns, and 12 interceptions while rushing for 499 yards and six touchdowns. Richardson was benched before Week 9 of the season for veteran backup Joe Flacco.

Ahead of the 2025 season, the Colts signed Daniel Jones to a 1-year, $14 million contract in hopes of having a battle for QB1 between him and Richardson. Jones ultimately won the QB competition and outplayed his contract, leading Indy to an 8-5 record before tearing his Achilles. He threw for 3,101 yards, 19 touchdowns, and eight interceptions while adding five rushing touchdowns. He later earned a two-year, $88 million extension to remain the Colts' QB1.

What now

It's hard to predict where Richardson could get traded. Even teams with starters and backups could be interested in developing Richardson. Or perhaps the market is dry, given his injury history and regressive play.

Regardless, his time with the Colts appears to be coming to a close.

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