Budding Bust: Michael Penix Trending Down as Falcons Starting QB on Kalshi

The Atlanta Falcons are in line for one of the most underwhelming QB competitions across the NFL, with Michael Penix Jr. and former Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa fighting for that QB1 spot.

Where things sit at the time of writing, Kalshi is heavily leaning on Tagovailoa to beat out Penix for the starting job come Week 1 of the season.

Atlanta Falcons Week 1 Starting QB – Kalshi

Tua Tagovailoa 65%
Michael Penix Jr. 44%
Trevor Siemian 5%

With 65%, Tua is the favorite to land the QB1 position, where a $10 risk is paying out $5.30. At Penix’s 44% chance, $10 would pay out $11.97. In the longest position on the board at 5%, Trevor Siemian would profit $177.40 on a $10 risk.

The good & bad for both

While this isn’t the most enticing battle to choose from, there are cases for both Penix and Tua for the QB slot. Tua has the experience and has had far worse surrounding him on offense than what the Falcons are offering him now, with the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London. However, Penix threw for 1,982 yards, nine touchdowns, and three interceptions in nine games before suffering a partially torn ACL in Week 11 of his first full season as the starter.

As far as a case against both of them, Tua comes with an extensive injury history, led by four concussions since 2022. He’s also coming off one of his worst seasons as a starter last year with the Dolphins, totaling 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions while being sacked 30 times.

Penix, on the other hand, would be returning from a torn ACL with questions rising on how the serious injury would impact his play. Also, while his interception total was one of the lowest in the league at just three, he couldn’t seem to get things going as far as touchdowns, with just nine in nine games.

NFL Insiders Weigh In

Like they often do, several key NFL analysts and insiders have weighed in on who they think will end up as the Falcons' starting QB come Week 1.

Louis Riddick states that he thinks Tua Tagovailoa will ultimately win the starting job over Penix on a segment of ‘NFL Live.’

“I personally think Tua should win this job, all things being equal. No disrespect to Michael Penix. Tua is a fantastic passer. If he can stay on the football field and they can play complementary football, I think he wins this job going away. I think we know that the kind of things that held Tua back were not because he didn’t have the requisite skill or mental horsepower to get the job done.”

Jeremy Fowler gave his thoughts with a quote from head coach Kevin Stefanski, which led him to believe that Tagovailoa has the early lead.

“Where Tua has the advantage is his accuracy. Head coach Kevin Stefanski has said many times before, but even recently in Atlanta, that accuracy is the No. 1 important thing in his offense. Tua has that, and he’s got the backing of Matt Ryan, Stefanski, and all the quarterbacks in that background from the past.”

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