Canadian Open: What Kalshi Golf Markets Say About This Week's Tournament

Next up on the PGA Tour is the RBC Canadian Open, which tees off on Thursday at TPC Toronto in Osprey Valley. On the board at prediction markets going into the tournament, Englishmen Tommy Fleetwood and Matt Fitzpatrick sit ahead of the rest of the field.

The Canadian Open prediction market on Kalshi has both of them as the only players going in with over a 6% chance to win, and both are trending in a positive direction at that.

RBC Canadian Open Winner - Kalshi

Tommy Fleetwood 6.7%
Matt Fitzpatrick 6.4%
Sam Burns 5.4%
Wyndham Clark 4.4%
Brooks Koepka 3.1%
Collin Morikawa 3%
Viktor Hovland 3%

With the highest chances to win on the board at Kalshi, Fleetwood is the current favorite, just barely edging Fitzpatrick by 0.3%. Risking $10 on Tommy Fleetwood to win the Canadian Open would payout $131.95, while $10 on Fitzpatrick is paying out $136.56, if the bet wins.

Fleetwood’s performance up north

Historically, Fleetwood has found serious success when playing in the Great White North at the Canadian Open. This will mark his fourth all-time appearance in the tournament and his first playing at TPC Toronto.

In his first Canadian Open in 2018, he finished T6, going -16 at Glen Abbey Golf Club. In 2023, he lost in the playoff, finishing in second place at Oakdale Golf & Country Club, going -17. In his most recent Canadian Open appearance in 2024, he went T21 with -7 playing at Hamilton Golf & Country Club.

Fleetwood has had a solid campaign this season, currently ranked #7 with seven top-25 finishes, six top-10 finishes, and three top-5 finishes. Things have also been looking up for him since Maywhere he finished T5 at the Truist Championship and is coming off a T4 finish at the Memorial Tournament just last weekend.

Hard to ignore Fitzpatrick

Matt Fitzpatrick finds himself as the world-ranked #4 player heading into the Canadian Open, having had a strong season to this point. Across nine top-25 finishes, he’s posted five in the top-10, four in the top-5, and three wins at the Valspar Championship, RBC Heritage, and Zurich Classic of New Orleans.

Fitzpatrick, like Fleetwood, has also found success playing up north with a T10 finish at the 2022 Canadian Open and a T20 finish in 2023.

Notable Canadian Open absences

Clearing the way, both Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick are among several notable players who opted to skip out on the Canadian Open in preparation for next week’s U.S. Open.

Fitzpatrick at #4 will be the highest-ranked player in the field with #1 Scottie Scheffler, #2 Rory McIlroy, and #3 Cameron Young, all skipping and preparing for their next major.

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